Quilty Space

For a deeper discussion on our 2025 Starlink Financial Over, we invite you to join our upcoming webinar on April 9 at 11:00 AM ET. We’ll walk through these findings live and leave time for questions. Register here: @0dfb26ce-134a-423f-b941-ecd2347e27d5" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">events.teams.microsoft.com/event/f0290b20…

The fourth installment in Quilty Space’s ongoing series analyzing the economics of @SpaceX's connectivity business is now live. @Starlink crossed 10 million subscribers and is now tracking toward $20B in 2026 revenue. The business looks nothing like it did 18 months ago, and neither does our model. Highlights & Takeaways: • Revised Consumer Update: YE 2026 forecast raised to 16.8M subscribers (+33%) • Consumer Revenue: $11.3B in revenue (+10%), with ~85% recurring • Enterprise: Scales from $584M (2024) to $1.38B (2025) to $1.68B (2026), driven by sub-vertical expansion • Maritime Market: Revenue reaches $1.94B in 2026 (+55% y/y), driven by ~75k net vessel adds and continued price compression. • Aviation: Revenue estimates up 68% in 2026 – a peak installation year for commercial & BizJet • Starshield (Service & Constellation): Starshield generates $3.2B in 2026 with $761M in SaaS and $2.5B in Starshield as a Constellation • Mobile | Direct-to-Cell (DTC): Now modeled using a tiered wholesale framework that establishes the monetization base with 25 million monthly active users by year-end • Satellite Manufacturing Update: Starlink manufacturing capacity passes 4,000 satellites annually (~340/month) in 2026, up from ~2,880 in 2024 — a 40%+ step-up • Starlink Launches: Falcon 9 launches scale to ~133 Starlink missions in 2026 (+11% y/y), deploying ~3,500 satellites (+23%) • Gateways: Global gateways scale from ~240 in 2024 to ~503 in 2026 (+2.1x), with ~135 new sites added in 2026 alone • Starlink Financial Model: We forecast $20B in 2026 revenue, $14B in EBITDA, and $8.1B in pro forma FCF The full report and financial model are now available to all Quilty Space Pro users through your dashboard. quiltyspace.com/product-page/s…

The correct answer is 72% according to our analysis.

What share of SpaceX’s non-launch government revenue is Starshield by 2027? Vote below ⬇️

We’ll be at @SATELLITEDC next week with our full team in DC! @ChenrySpace will be moderating Shopping for Your Satellite Network: A Guide for New Customers from 1:45–2:30 PM in the Space Domain Theater (Exhibit Hall Booth 723), sponsored by Umbra. We look forward to seeing many of you there. #SATShow2026

#Starshield is quickly becoming a core part of SpaceX’s government business. In our upcoming 2H 2025 Starlink Financial Overview, we quantify just how large that opportunity gets. Full breakdown of our anaylsis will be available Friday.

Our February Market Monitor is out. Download the full report here: quiltyspace.com/_files/ugd/e1a…

@stockthoughts81 We are updating these slides based on our latest model and will be hosting a new webinar on our findings early April. Keep an eye out to registeration.

Throwing this out there again - would appreciate if anyone can point me in the right direction on LEO unit economics and ROIC profile. Some things I've found so far: 1) Evercore has some good work around Starlink, AMZN LEO, and $KRMN as well as some webinars with @QuiltySpace 2) Starlink is profitable (highly profitable, it seems, at least on an EBITDA basis... but not sure how to think about capex profile yet). Was surprised to see this. 3) Another good resources is @TMFAssociates - curious if you can point me toward any reading or research on this specific topic, Tim?

It's wild to me that search engine AIs keep pulling up 150 gateways as a representative figure for Starlink. At Quilty, we estimate Starlink ended 2025 with approx. 350 gateways, with major concentrations in the US, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines.

Our latest QuickTake, Mynaric, Rocket Lab and the other edge of the sovereignty sword. Read more: quiltyspace.com/post/mynaric-r…

@GilatSatNet closed 2025 with a strong beat, posting +75% y/y and ahead of consensus on both revenue and EBITDA. The bigger story: defense looks set to lead growth in 2026 as IFC momentum matures and M&A moves back into focus. Read our latest review: quiltyspace.com/product-page/g… #GILT #Gilat #IFC

The $175 Billion Shadow: Inside the Golden Dome’s Identity Crisis. #SmallSatSymposium Read more about what was discussed during the panel: news.satnews.com/2026/02/11/the…

@Via_Satellite: Blue Origin’s TeraWave Constellation: Analysts (including @ChenrySpace) Size Up Competitive Positioning. Worth the read: satellitetoday.com/connectivity/2…

Following a lull in 2024, satcom operators ordered 11 #GEO satellites in 2025 – the industry’s best total since 2016. Orders were about equally split between traditional large GEOs and increasingly popular Small GEO platforms. Read our QuickTake on it here: quiltyspace.com/post/what-2025…

Make #TheMega part of your monthly LEO brief. Here are a few of the key headlines covered in January's Edition: 🔹SpaceX filed its orbital data center plan and brought Kardashev Civilizations to the FCC: A million-satellite on-orbit compute constellation, mostly optical, riding Starlink’s ground ecosystem, Ka-band as backup, and waiver asks that translate to: “approve now, we’ll route around problems later.” 🔹Starlink DTC got a regulatory boost: FCC modified | expanded Gen2 to 15,000 satellites; Kyivstar cited 3M registered users and ~1.2M satellite SMS; T-Mobile hyped daily “off-grid” usage for 150K Americans and support for 34 apps. 🔹Aviation stayed on its Starlink adoption arc, with one loud “nope:” Qatar said ~120 aircraft equipped; Lufthansa Group plans ~850 aircraft starting 2H 2026; Gulf Air targets ~45 aircraft; Emirates aims ~150 by end-2026; Ryanair publicly rejects the antenna drag | fuel math. 🔹Big LEO is turning into a procedural fight: Globalstar and Iridium are lawyering up to protect their incumbency while SpaceX is treating “international authority” as the latest end run. 🔹Amazon Leo admitted the obvious: rockets are the bottleneck. It asked the FCC to extend or waive its Gen-1 50% milestone due this Summer. Amazon is projecting ~700 sats by July while highlighting a now-massive launch book across four providers. 🔹Blue Origin’s “TeraWave” filing: Enterprise transport: point-to-point pipes, backbone economics, and competition with fiber routes and private networks. 🔹AST SpaceMoves: International S-band authority ask, U.S. 2 GHz modification attempt, STAs for testing, BlueBird 7 teed up, and a SHIELD IDIQ entry. Read the full Recap here: quiltyspace.com/product-page/c…