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If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel. Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability. It is important we get this right.

Financial Times reports that Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has grown from roughly $200 million to $3.5 billion in assets while pitching an “America First” investment strategy centered on “patriotic capitalism.” The Palm Beach-based firm says it aims to reach $10 billion in assets and has invested heavily in AI, defense, and tech companies including Databricks, Groq, xAI, SpaceX, and Anduril. One partner told the FT the firm hopes to become a new Carlyle Group-style powerhouse, using deep political connections in Trump’s Washington to build influence and attract capital.