RadiUnce

🚀 Welcome to the X account of our @ERC_Research project Politicians under Radical Uncertainty (RadiUnce)! 📚🌍 Follow us for updates, findings, and a deeper look into the world of politics and uncertainty! 📢🗺️ #ERCResearch #RadicalUncertainty #PoliticalBehavior

The RadiUnce team is excited to have begun presenting our work at European political science conferences! Olaf van der Veen presented at the @PolEtmaal in June, and @EllaMacLaughlin presented at the @europsa conference in July. We hope to see you at the next conference ▶

Given that Schoof has no prior experience as a politician, his performance as the new Dutch PM is hard to predict. But this uncertainty will already decrease in today's House of Representatives debate, where his political skills will be put to the test, says PI Barbara Vis in @FT

Earlier this month, RadiUnce researcher @EllaMacLaughlin presented at @COMPTEXTCONF on the project 'Predicting the Future', which uses computational text analysis methods to look at how Dutch politicians made (public) predictions during the Covid-19 pandemic. Photos: @Roanbuma

💡 Barbara Vis & @ThomasSchillem2 discuss how Daniel Kahneman's legacy can be leveraged for both the back-end of policy—accountability—and the front-end of policy—decision-making. ☝ Article in Dutch, use the Google Translate plug-in to read it in English! platformoverheid.nl/artikel/framin…

A great new article from @wouterlammers and co-authors showing how the majority of experiments on uncertainty communication look at shallow to medium levels of uncertainty, *not* extreme (or radical) uncertainty: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10…

How to talk about an abstract concept like (radical) uncertainty with 10-year-olds? Last week, @marijswinkels and Barbara Vis of @UUUSBO visited a primary school in Utrecht where they let the children think about how their school should look like decades into the future.

"The staggering news of Navalny's death...underlined again the perilous unpredictability of a world carved up by multiple fault lines and entrenched interests." - @bbclysedoucet bbc.com/news/world-eur…

Great meeting today with @nihitgoyal talking about the potentials of computational text analysis for policy research!

How do politicians respond to uncertainty? In this open access study published in @PolStudiesRev, RadiUnce PI Barbara Vis introduces a novel conceptual map with six possible responses: doi.org/10.1177/147892…

Strangely enough, mentions of uncertainty in Dutch national newspapers didn't increase around the Netherlands' elections last November. Read more in Olaf van der Veen's new article for #StukRoodVlees: stukroodvlees.nl/verkiezingen-e… #verkiezingen #onzekerheid #elections #uncertainty

'De beroemde beginzin van Tolstoi’s Anna Karenina luidt: “Alle gelukkige gezinnen lijken op elkaar, elk ongelukkig gezin is ongelukkig op zijn eigen wijze.” Misschien geldt voor onzekerheid wel hetzelfde…' - @WRRDenktank in wrr.nl/publicaties/wo… #WRR

Verkiezingen worden altijd gezien als een onzekere tijd. Was dat ook het geval bij de afgelopen Nederlandse verkiezingen? De conclusie is genuanceerder dan je zou denken. Lees meer in het nieuwe artikel van RadiUnce onderzoeker Olaf van der Veen: stukroodvlees.nl/verkiezingen-e…

If someone told you only a few weeks ago that Iran would be at war, you would have guessed Israel, the US, or perhaps Saudi Arabia; not Pakistan. It is very, very hard to keep in mind that we're not good at predicting & even harder to incorporate it into a general policy.

Onzekerheid + gevoelens van machteloosheid = 'meer ‘wij-zij’ denken, een grotere voorkeur voor ‘sterke leiders’ die het niet zo nauw nemen met de democratische regels en mogelijk ook tot een grotere neiging tot complotdenken.' - @WRRDenktank wrr.nl/publicaties/ra…

2024 is the biggest election year in history. 76 countries are scheduled to hold national elections, making up more than half of the world's population. (Visual from @TheEconomist )

Dive deeper into the topic of "radical" uncertainty by adding these books to your 2024 reading list: ▸The Black Swan by Taleb, 2007 ▸Radical Uncertainty by Kay & King, 2020 ▸& for an in-depth, practical approach: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Marchau et al., 2019

'In het Westland komen klimaat en migratie samen. De verkiezingszege van de partij van Wilders leidt tot onzekerheid voor tuinbouwsector.' - @MaureenBlnkstn @FD_Nieuws fd.nl/bedrijfsleven/…

The uncertainty surrounding today's Dutch elections isn't only about who comes out as the largest party; it's also about the direction where the country is headed. #verkiezingen2023 #NederlandKiest #stemmen

Nederlandse kiezers nemen het conflict in Gaza mee in overwegingen voor de #verkiezingen2023 maar gaat het ook de uitslag beïnvloeden? Ella Maclaughlin @UUUSBO @UniUtrecht en David Lever onderzoekers van @RadiUnceProject delen inzichten op StukRoodVlees stukroodvlees.nl/kan-het-israel…

Within the #BehavioralPublicAdministration panel of the @NIGnl Work Conference 2023 last week, we enjoyed a thought-provoking discussion about a core question in our research: How can we conceptualize #radicaluncertainty?