RedRambutan

8.4K posts

RedRambutan

RedRambutan

@RambutanRed

Katılım Kasım 2019
417 Takip Edilen978 Takipçiler
China Banking News
China Banking News@CBankingEditor·
China has just done to John Mearsheimer the exact same thing it did to Aleksandr Dugin, in order to charm and disarm a highly influential geopolitical detractor. They invited both men to China to deliver lectures as academic dignitaries, making sure they were feted by students, peers and members of the public during the process. The goal of course was to shift their personal sentiments and win them over, thus changing their position as key opinion makers and policy influencers in their respective home countries.
hello world@whiteTony99

一批长期以强硬反华著称的美国鹰派人物，在亲身踏访中国之后，态度悄然发生了微妙的转变。 《纽约时报》专栏作家弗里德曼此前曾对中国制造业嗤之以鼻，将中国工厂讥讽为"一人一狗的低端车间"，认为中国根本不配与美国同台竞争。 然而访华之行，让他"三观震碎"。回美后他罕见地公开承认："美国还在沉睡，中国已经在几乎所有高端制造领域实现飞跃。"虽然字里行间仍透着惯有的偏见，但他至少不得不正视中美实力对比的客观现实。无独有偶，"进攻性现实主义"代表人物米尔斯海默在结束清华大学访问后也曾直言："美国无法在与中国的战争中取胜。"他更进一步指出，如果华盛顿继续以挑衅姿态对待北京，"将是极其愚蠢的行为"。 即便是金融大鳄索罗斯，也开始重新审视中国-﹣他认为中国在历史上曾多次站上世界文明之巅，每一次跌倒都能凭借自身韧性再次崛起，外部的制裁与围堵难以真正打断这一历史进程。

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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
@CBankingEditor This is AI generated but I think it's correct and unchanged. China is the main contradiction for him!
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China Banking News
China Banking News@CBankingEditor·
Perhaps. But I think his register and tone certainly have. My take is that he knows his position is flawed, so he's making subtle adjustments to save face. He can't disavow his prior stance completely, but he also realizes that it doesn't withstand scrutiny when set adjacent to reality. That GT interview is very different in tone from prior interviews he has done. Could also be the audience, however.
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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
@CBankingEditor You can call it ideological, but his theory of offensive realism is exceptionally succinct and he is very good at explaining it. He absolutely 100% has not jettisoned it.
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China Banking News
China Banking News@CBankingEditor·
His take on China was rooted in dogmatic ideological convictions I feel, but Mearsheimer is also extremely intelligent, and as such, is averse to looking stupid. There's a good chance that after visiting China he realized his prior convictions were incorrect, so made a pivot step. Not for the sake of world peace or even national interest, but just so he wouldn't look like a boob. Which he did when he claimed that China's post-Deng rise had been belligerent.
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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
@CBankingEditor Honestly I don't think this position of his has changed. And he was right of course while others were in the End Of History pasture. And he does call it the tragedy of great power politics. Are we not in an intense security competition now?
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China Banking News
China Banking News@CBankingEditor·
His tone has shifted considerably. This is him in 2005 (mearsheimer.com/wp-content/upl…). Now he's telling Pelosia to back off on Taiwan. This is him to Global Times in 2024: "My view is that despite this dangerous situation, it's not likely that we will have a war anytime soon over Taiwan. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I think it's not likely."
China Banking News tweet media
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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
@CBankingEditor Sure but he's still a realist, very conscious of the shifting balance of power.
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China Banking News
China Banking News@CBankingEditor·
Previously, I always felt Mearsheimer had a very fatalistic, self-fulfillingly bellicose view that the US needed to prepare for an inevitable military conflict with China, given the nature of Thucydides Trap dynamics. I suspect his deep disapproval of the War in Iran may have also softened his stance on Great Power conflicts.
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China Banking News
China Banking News@CBankingEditor·
"A lot of Chinese people think that the root of the problem is American behavior. The Americans are the bad guys. Many Americans think the root of the problem is the Chinese are the bad guys. This is not my view." globaltimes.cn/page/202410/13… His tone is very different. I don't follow him sedulously, but I do recall him making the assertion that China's rise had been bellicose, before stating in the following breath that they were poorly positioned to deal with military conflict because they hadn't fought any wars during the reform era.
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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
@gonglei89 @tphuang What engine does the C919 use? My understanding is the LEAP-1C, imported from abroad
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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
No, they were compelled to, although I'm sure they did their best to share as little and as outdated technology as possible. China's advantage of a large market and constant state pressure will be hard for other developing countries to copy. siemens-energy.com/global/en/home…
RedRambutan tweet mediaRedRambutan tweet media
tphuang@tphuang

Nobody in West just gave advanced metallurgy tech to China. One example, Researchers in China test & trialed 12t of raw material to develop 1 type of single-crystal blade to service extend life from 400 to 2000 hr. CSSC now use this for its GT sales to Russia. Do ppl actually think Western companies just give away yrs of precious R&D away? China received more help from Russia on its way to having a modernized gas turbine & aero engine industry. Now ofc, it sped past the Russians & selling CGT-30s to Russia for the Arctic LNG-2 project (which then get resold back to China lol) There is a whole national standard developed in high nickel alloy that mostly match the US Inconel & Hastelloy standards. Everyone can feel free to look it up. All this stuff takes yrs of R&D to do. You think any metal will just work in deep Siberian winters & Hainan island?

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Mark Ames
Mark Ames@MarkAmesExiled·
shithole
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RedRambutan
RedRambutan@RambutanRed·
Gotta wonder what countries like the Philippines are thinking after watching what happened to US allies with bases near Iran. Also notably Itbayat Island is not one of the nine EDCA sites, so this is significant. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_…
AMTI@AsiaMTI

U.S. missile systems deploy to Itbayat Island, 100 miles south of Taiwan, during Balikatan military drills, representing a shift in the joint exercises' focus to the defense of Manila's strategic islands. bit.ly/4mZtHQL

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