
Raphael Cohen
550 posts



JUST IN: Kamala Harris reaches all-time high in the odds to become the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee.










Tungsten APT just hit $2,250/mtu. Tungsten was at $300 eighteen months ago. The Iran war is creating two supply shocks the market is still sleeping on and they're completely different in nature. Drop a follow to @BULLOFBRITAIN who's been ahead of this entire thesis. 🪨 TUNGSTEN: China controls ~82% of global supply. Beijing cut exports to ZERO in late 2025. Now the US is firing 180,000 tungsten pellets per warhead at $5.6B of munitions every two days. That tungsten doesn't come back it's not recycled like machine tool scrap. It's gone forever. BMO is calling it a supercycle. NDAA bans Chinese tungsten from US defense contracts Jan 1, 2027. The window for Western producers is now. $EQR.AX and $ALM are the non-Chinese pure plays. EQR reports H1 earnings tomorrow first ER since the price explosion. Binary event. 💩 FERTILIZER (yes, the poop cycle): 1/3 of all globally traded fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz now effectively closed. Countries in the region supply ~49% of global urea exports. Prices up ~30% in weeks. Spring planting starts NOW. Nitrogen application cannot be deferred corn doesn't care about geopolitics. QatarEnergy declared force majeure. Chinese nitrogen exports restricted until August. Europe running at ~75% nitrogen capacity. $CF Industries largest US nitrogen producer, completely insulated from Hormuz. Hit ATH this week. Two completely different commodities. One supply shock from weapons demand. One from a shipping chokepoint. Same war. Both structural. NFA. DYOR. $EQR.AX $ALM $CF



Helium is the sleeper trade of the Iranian conflict & investors are waking up to this quickly. Disruptions to Qatar's natural gas processing from the Iran war have driven helium prices sharply higher, exposing the fragility of a small but critical market that supports industries from semiconductors to medical imaging. $PLSR.V +16% $AVN.V +26% $DME.V +32% $HEVI.V +23% $ALTU.V +33%

The #Helium bull is alive & well $AVN.V & $PLSR.V On absolute moonshots atm. $CH.V & $HEVI.V Your move?







$W.V @SpartanMetalsCo Halted 👀 #Tungsten



