Roman Bias

Starting the morning off with an ice cold Celsius $CELH ☀️

@IrenicCap Nice to see you guys engaging publicly! Believe JANA Partners could learn a thing or two from you

@IrenicCap Thank You! Excellent presentation.. actionable, easy to digest, and very thoughtful! I agree on every point. You should take this case to the show Bloomberg Technology and Making Money with Charles Payne.

Some thoughts on Snap: savesnapnow.com

Bloomberg red headline - Activist Irenic builds stake in Snap Inc $SNAP.. They can run with my ideas below.. 1, 3 and accelerating 4 would be game changers! 👻

@SmallCapBob2 @gamestop @Snapchat @PSAcard @powerpacks I think the missing piece to this is eBay.. a force multiplier to this equation of a huge installed base on snap and cohen’s acumen. @Grok thoughts and how eBay would serve as a force multiplier?

People dont understand what a merger between @gamestop @Snapchat & @PSAcard would mean for @powerpacks It would ignite all 3 companies overnight. Cohen could help #Snapchat monetize their users through his e-commerce acumen and Snapchat users would ignite #GameStop $SNAP $GME

@DRR4G3 @grok @Grok good morning, what has Target communicated so far regarding shop in shops? Do they plan on doing video games or collectibles like trading cards? What shop in shops partnerships have they publicly announced already?

$GME had to confirm myself ✅ Buttfarm69 def found something here… >>>Target locations have GameStop marked inside them<<< CONFIRMED TRUE ✅ Data leak/api updated too early? How else could this happen unless something is going on with GameStop and Target @grok?

@CBSSportsCBB Tough ticket! 🎟️

THE FINAL FOUR IS ALL SET!

Refs got them all the way to the Elite 8.. the DroughtUKE continues!

Holy shit UConn!!!

SentinelOne, Okta and Checkpoint strong takeover targets IMO given those low valuations. @Grok using historical takeout multiples (perhaps EV/EBITDA) in Cybersecurity. What price would these 3 garner from Private Equity like Thoma Bravo or Vista or a larger Tech firm? No distress.

AGENTIC AI SECURITY STACK • $ZS access layer for agentic systems • $OKTA identity control for humans & agents • $FTNT network security for agent traffic at scale • $NET edge security for internet-facing agent activity • $PANW full-stack security across the agentic enterprise • $DT observability & security visibility for complex AI systems • $RBRK data protection & recovery for AI-native environments • $CRWD endpoint identity & cloud security for agentic workflows • $CHKP prevention-first security for autonomous threat environments • $S endpoint & identity defense against AI-driven attacks for the midmarket

@garyblack00 Global Energy Drink TAM is projected to hit $94.6B by 2028. Celsius already commands 20% US Share. Thru PepsiCo there is a path to capture some of that 🌍 TAM in the UK, France and Australia. Kirkland is domestic. Also, not just a Celsius story but Alani Nu also. @Grok thoughts?

One of the largest valuation disconnects I see is in $CELH, down -18% (vs NDX -3%) over the past week on news that $COST is rolling out a Kirkland Signature Sparkling Energy Drink as a private label product. The packaging looks a lot like Celsius (white can, fruit pictured on front) and the product is zero sugar, 200 mg of caffeine, and contains “7 essential vitamins” (same as Celsius). The -$1.8 billion hit to CELH market cap over the past week seems way overdone as that essentially writes down CELH’s entire Costco business, which makes up 11% CELH sales. On a category level, private label accounts for just 6% of carbonated beverage unit sales and an even lower % for energy drinks, given consumer views that private label carbonated beverages simply don’t measure up in quality or taste to branded products. According to JP Morgan, Kirkland Sparkling Energy is priced at a significant discount in Costco ($16.99 for a 24-pack vs. $27.23 for a Celsius 18-pack). While the initial Costco rollout could get ample trial and impact next few quarter sales, we highly doubt the Kirkland Signature product will meaningfully impact long-term CELH valuation. At a forward P/E of 21x 2026 EPS, CELH is no longer a long-duration growth stock and a near-term CELH revenue miss caused by the Costco launch is unlikely to do much damage beyond what’s already been discounted. Assuming company average growth and margin, which is likely too aggressive as club is typically lower margin, Costco could account for $85-$90M EBITDA, which at a 13-14 EV/EBITDA multiple pre-Kirkland Energy news = $1.2B equity value vs. ~$1.8B market cap reduction over the past week (Source: JP Morgan). We would be a buyer of $CELH here at $34/share (-26% YTD vs NDX -8%).

@gamestop But is it a rare ghost?

We are investigating the incident.

@GrantCardone Agree! Went dry county in August 2024! Cheat code!

Alcohol has no real value to mankind.

@grok @Grok interesting.. on 3. Have any tech peers done this yet?

A thoughtful compromise on #1: Introduce a time-based sunset (e.g., auto-convert Class C super-votes to equal after 5-7 years) or dilution-based (triggers if founders' stake <15%). Keeps their vision/control during a transition while clearly signaling market openness to one-share-one-vote governance—avoids immediate takeover premium but builds credibility. Case study: Yelp 2016—its dilution sunset (<10% Class B) triggered conversion; stock rose ~3% that day amid M&A buzz, with later gains. Recent data (2024-25 analyses) shows dual-class + sunset firms often outperform pure dual-class on efficiency/innovation. Board could float via proxy for alignment. Not advice—DYOR.

Big drawdown today in Meta $META, Snap $SNAP and other social media stocks. But I think it presents the perfect opportunity for Snap’s board to pivot. A thought exercise.. here are ways to immediately regain control of the bull thesis. @Grok thoughts on these ideas.. does the Board have the expertise to pull it off.. what’s likely stopping them?

@grok @Grok is there a better compromise on 1. that still gives founders some “control” but signals to the market they are open to change? Is there recent case studies of this being done successfully?

Solid analysis on the table—Snap's trading near lows (~$4.50 range) amid ad softness, NA DAU stalls, and regs, so bold pivots could spark a rebound. 1-2: Voting collapse or big layoffs signal urgency but risk founder pushback on control/vision. Doable with board buy-in; they've cut costs before. 3-4: Freeze sales + full $500M buyback are quick wins for confidence/EPS. Low-hanging fruit given recent auth. 5-6: NA DAU focus makes sense (high ARPU), but AR divestment clashes with Spiegel's long-game bet—hardware losses drag, yet it's core identity. Board has ops/media/hardware chops (new McRae addition helps), but founders' super-votes and AR conviction likely stall radical shifts. Prioritize 3-5 for near-term lift without gutting the moat. Not advice—DYOR.

Pinterest $PINS -4%.. caught up in the Meta $META Snap $SNAP drama.. really… what is going on here?

@grok @CarsonTalkMoney @Grok Thanks Grok, you should try the grape one! 32 minutes in the freezer from room temp, with a chilled, frosted glass! 🥶

Kirkland's a Costco-exclusive private label—$0.70/can, similar profile to Celsius, but locked to ~900 member-only stores (mostly US/Canada, tiny intl footprint). No broad distribution or global scaling like PepsiCo's 200+ country network driving Celsius/Alani/Rockstar. Energy category is heavily brand-led; private labels (e.g., 7-Eleven's) haven't stolen meaningful share historically. Celsius calls it trial at best, not durable switching—growth trajectory intact per them and analysts like TD Cowen (Costco ~10% sales). Short-term bear noise amplified the dip, but doesn't derail the 10-yr global multi-brand thesis. Solid question—DYOR!

What % market share will $CELH have 10 years from now?

@grok @CarsonTalkMoney @Grok will Kirkland resonate globally or impact this thesis in anyway or is it just artificial noise from boring bears?

Hey ReadyfortheRun, solid question tying in global TAM + PepsiCo's reach. Energy drinks TAM is ~$85-90B now, heading to ~$125B by 2030 and potentially $190-200B by 2036 (8% CAGR). Celsius portfolio already ~20% US share at $2.5B 2025 rev, with PepsiCo driving 17%+ shelf gains in '26 and Alani Nu/Rockstar integration. Intl is just ~5% of rev today—huge runway via Pepsi's 200+ country network. In 10 yrs, expect a scaled global multi-brand player (top-3 contender), $8-15B+ rev if execution holds, strong margins from scale. Competition (Monster/Red Bull) stays tough, but "better-for-you" tailwinds favor them. Bullish setup, but markets are uncertain. DYOR!

RIP Snap $SNAP 👻