Real Assets Value

3.7K posts

Real Assets Value

Real Assets Value

@RealAssetsValue

Trying to build wealth and learn something investing in listed real estate

Katılım Ekim 2011
1.1K Takip Edilen4K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
Wrote up $ELME after they stealth-dropped their 10-K on Friday after the market close. Biggest problem asset (Watergate 600) under contract, trades at 15% - 20% discount to liquidation value. Link: open.substack.com/pub/realassets…
Real Assets Value tweet media
English
0
0
21
6.8K
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
Where are all the VCs, power strivers, and pundits who were hailing how DOGE was going to rebalance the budget, lower the national debt, fund checks cut to taxpayers, etc. etc. etc.? lol
English
2
0
9
869
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
Iran War has cost ~$25bn (so far), the Defense Department's FY2027 budget request is ~$1.5 TRILLION (+$440bn vs. 2026), and the name-change to Department of War will cost taxpayers ~$50m. Call it 5, 88, and 0.01 DOGE's respectively. WH ballroom? ~$400m or 0.1 DOGE's.
Real Assets Value tweet media
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion

DOGE is not about reducing deficits. It is an ideological purge. Whether you like that or not, that's what it actually is! noahpinion.blog/p/what-i-think…

English
1
0
4
1.9K
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
Inputs to real estate construction costs starting to ramp up caught between a rock (tariffs) and a hard place (rising energy prices). Inputs are up ~7% year on year and ~50% since 2022.
Real Assets Value tweet mediaReal Assets Value tweet media
English
0
1
3
604
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
@nbeachny Fair point and why REIT "appraisals" are typically not worth the paper they're printed on. I think the Cushman & Wakefield value was $22.19 per share, a mid 6% cap, clearly not a fair market value from the jump IMO.
English
0
0
1
81
EF
EF@nbeachny·
@RealAssetsValue Also insulting price to their ‘internal NAV’ of over $21
English
1
0
0
40
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
$MDV take out leaves my write up on the cutting room floor. I definitely didn't expect an offer to come so quickly following the Jan 20 strategic update. I think this offer results in a pretty good price - even after the $GNL decline - call it a ~7.25% cap rate / ~$115 PSF. 1/
Real Assets Value tweet media
David Auerbach ⭕️@DailyREITBeat

🏭 Global Net Lease Announces $535 Million Acquisition of Modiv Industrial $GNL Global Net Lease has officially entered into a definitive agreement to acquire $MDV @modiv Modiv Industrial in an all-stock transaction. This move represents a major step in GNL’s strategic pivot toward high-quality industrial assets and portfolio diversification. 📊 Strategic Transaction Overview: * The deal is projected to be immediately 4% accretive to AFFO per share, driving enhanced value for the combined shareholder base. * Valued at approximately $535 million, the transaction is leverage-neutral and requires no external capital, preserving GNL’s balance sheet flexibility. * Modiv’s portfolio brings a robust 15.0-year weighted average lease term (WALT), significantly increasing GNL’s pro forma WALT from 6.1 to 7.0 years. * The acquisition adds mission-critical industrial properties with 2.4% average annual rent escalations, ensuring durable and predictable cash flow growth. * Approximately 45% of the acquired annual base rent is derived from investment-grade rated tenants, further de-risking the revenue stream. * The merger accelerates GNL’s initiative to reduce office exposure while deepening its footprint in the resilient U.S. industrial market. 💵 Shareholder Value: * Modiv stockholders will receive 1.975 shares of GNL for each share held * Represents a 17% premium over the May 1, 2026 closing price * Represents a 28% premium to Modiv’s unaffected share price prior to its January 20, 2026 strategic update * Modiv stockholders expected to see a 25% increase in annual dividends. * The transaction is expected to close in Q3 2026, pending Modiv stockholder approval and customary closing conditions. 🔍 Industry Outlook: * This acquisition underscores a broader trend of REITs seeking scale to lower the cost of capital and optimize platform efficiency. * By integrating Modiv’s "mission-critical" manufacturing assets, GNL is positioning itself for sustainable long-term growth and increased institutional visibility. ir.globalnetlease.com/investors/news…

English
1
1
7
3.8K
Adam Block
Adam Block@AdamB1438·
@Mr_Neutral_Man I'm glad it worked out for everybody and I almost bought it myself all this year.
English
1
0
2
389
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”
I love Adam and I think he's really smart but I disagree with his take on $MDV 97.1% IRR not including dividends but modest 1.2x MOIC. In this market, I can redeploy it into lots of cheap REITs 8.1% dividend yield at our cost basis of $14.83. We could've waited 1 more year for the same price and the IRR and MOIC would still be quite attractive at 15% + 8.1% yield > 23% IRR We will evaluate $GNL and see if we want to hold that stock and I think what MDV's CEO does with his stock will be very telling 8.1% current yield solves problems for a lot of our investment objectives!!!
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” tweet media
Adam Block@AdamB1438

Congrats to my $MDV peeps! This is yet another shining example of how many small REITs are undervalued, (... AND how it's just not a great use of time and effort to try and invest in them anyhow.)

English
6
1
18
7.9K
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
Bottom line is: -management doing the right thing by pulling the trigger and selling the company -well done to the investors in this one -another small REIT bites the dust... 5/5
English
0
0
3
409
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
If I knew $18/share was the take out price but base case was still the 18-24 month portfolio repositioning then explore M&A laid out in Jan., still not sure I would have bought this - was margin of safety enough for all the PE-backed tenant risk in the manufacturig portfolio? 4/
English
2
0
2
427
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
@hybridvigorish @Mr_Neutral_Man This is why @hybridvigorish is the MF GOAT. Interesting they were under capitalizing OPEX. Why do you think they would do that, I would have thought the incentives would point the other way, maximize FFO? Do you think that’s a common approach by $CPT or unique to this asset?
English
0
0
0
133
hybridvigorish
hybridvigorish@hybridvigorish·
@Mr_Neutral_Man @RealAssetsValue ..also under-capitalizing opex, so it was $4.6M “buyer/market” NOI = 6.0% cap rate I referenced. To your conversation on margin, the “camden” NOI margin was 49% (ie < than the DFW set like RAV suggested), but the rev includes other income so were $10M vs the $8M in the calc above
English
1
0
2
87
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
$CPT sale of 40 y/o property in Irving, TX looks to me like a ~6% cap rate & ~$150k/unit. Commentary & est. of gain they need to 1031 for SoCal - ~20 y/o, awarded to 1 buyer - is val of ~$1.6bn, ~5.5% disp. yield, ~5.2% cap rate (mgmt said 30 bps prop. tax adj.), ~$450k/unit.
Real Assets Value tweet media
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”@Mr_Neutral_Man

Digging into $CPT capital allocation Bought 2.63mm sh for $106 in Q1, 1.43mm sh at $101 in April, took out 3.7% of S/O in 4 months in 2026 Issued $600mm of 10 yr sr unsecured at 4.9% yield, leverage up from 4.1x to 4.7x Love to see it @BillBrewsterTBB @AndrewRangeley

English
1
0
12
3.8K
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
@Mr_Neutral_Man Not only that, they quote a 12% unlevered IRR over an almost 30yr hold period! I've got no secret sauce - just used their 2025 SS NOI margin for DFW. Argument that this approach overstates NOI / cap rate for this asset is very reasonable and my est. probs on the conservative side
Real Assets Value tweet media
English
2
0
0
438
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”
So selling one of their oldest assets in TX to reduce maint cap ex needs and use some of the proceeds to buy back shares and still accretive to in place cap rate. Wild stuff. How are you getting this granular data to estimate NOI at property level? Specifically NOI margin. Could make the argument that the older asset likely has lower NOI margin vs rest of the DRW 2025 SS stats
English
2
0
6
1.2K
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
@JeffBeckMadDog I do not think H2 2026 will be the trough in NOI / FFO - especially now they've circled ~$100m of ABR of known moveouts in 2027! I haven't run any numbers yet but not impossible they need to cut the divvy again.
English
0
0
0
52
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
@JeffBeckMadDog OK, I follow you now. 2050+ maturity bonds were funded 80/20 by 2036 notes and commercial paper, which is repayable within ~400 days. True - albeit even without this transaction the commercial paper already necessitated dispositions. ~$1.7bn O/S after the April bond repayment!
Real Assets Value tweet media
English
1
0
0
84
Jeff Beck
Jeff Beck@JeffBeckMadDog·
$ARE i still hate the debt moves. Gives mgmt way less flexibility as they are heavily reliant on hitting disposition guidance at a time where it is still very unclear if the trough will actually be in in 2H26. Dispositions need to be strong to tap da 500M repurchase authorization
English
1
0
1
514
Real Assets Value
Real Assets Value@RealAssetsValue·
@JeffBeckMadDog While it reduces the average term of that debt to 10yrs, interest expense is the same and no net capital was required... Doesn't actually have an impact on their problems, which is dispositions to fund CAPEX they're locked into, and leasing? What should they've done differently?
English
1
0
0
282
Sterling Capital
Sterling Capital@jay_21_·
Nice letter from $SNDA reinforcing they are capital allocators and stewards of capital (rather than empire builders like other real estate companies...) sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
English
1
1
15
2.7K