Mr. Ghoul

@spotgamma Tail risk, bah. It's not like oil and bond yields are jumping.

<7,180 is the confirmation for shorts. Until then, you can continue to make fun of me complaining about tail risk.

10y at 4.45, oil jumping, market SLIGHTLY down...

Starting to get that 2020 vibe...

I don't know this was just confirmation bias or what, but it was shockingly empty at the grocery store today. And four restaurants in the area shut down as of yesterday (including one of my favorite drunk hangouts in my 20s).

@unusual_whales This guy is dumber than a sack of shit.

JD Vance: “It's very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology."

@SqueezeMetrics Start hoarding macaroni noodles.

Generally, you gotta ignore the crank opinion people and the eternal impending collapse narratives—but right now, I’m all ears.

🥐 fresh crumbs We're gonna play a little game called Bullish or Bearish $SPX → short term at the money puts → medium term out of the money puts Live from Canada 🇨🇦 @jam_croissant with @wealthsimple Full interview youtube.com/live/0rFPdgNXi…

"We've never seen a 50% rally in the semiconductors in 15 sessions. 50%!" "We've only seen something like that before, and it was literally in March of 2000. Right before the top." Fresh 🥐 crumbs from @jam_croissant

Blowoff tops are the loudest at the end..

So basically we have two months of a slow bleed down? Euuuugh, alright.

@unusual_whales Bezos really likes sucking that orange mushroom-shaped dick, huh?

JUST IN: Amazon is discussing a potential reboot of “The Apprentice,” and has floated the idea of having Don Jr as the host, per WSJ

$VIX9D short vol mafia going to trash it again for risk free daily QE? Last call at the short vol saloon before sentiment/flows shift?

This is the part of the rally where everyone is bullish including the bozo's who yelled at me in mid to late March saying I was too bullish lmao. Now markets getting back into that boring stock pickers market with lower vol's and that comes with less margin for error too, if a curveball is thrown from Powell or Orange. Seeing the same folks who were beared up in late March saying Im too bullish now themselves quite bullish and cocky. Doesn't mean we sell off but outlier risk is CLEARLY to downside now and call skews are bid, saying everyone has bought calls already. The tough part about being an options trader if you can say this and people will yell at you and say you are a bear lol.. but you are just trading volatility and skew that is underpriced maybe... Stock traders just dont get it sometimes.

10y over 4.40, oil futures flying. I wonder if the market will use Jpow's final decision as an excuse to dump.

@FinanceLancelot He should just raise 'em by several points as one big final "fuck you" before he leaves.

Did these "Intelligence" agencies miss the last twelve times he declared victory?

I would like to point out that yields are getting yippie and oil is rising.

@TradingThomas3 How exactly are bears doomed?

Lol Trump is personally texting journalist, Bears are doomed 💀

I had noted in the last Goldman CTA update that "at this point once you net out the upcoming week there is net selling over the next month." Well, guess what, we're through that buying earlier than expected so now we're looking at modest selling in all price paths over the next week and month: -a flat market is now expected to see -$0.6bn in selling over the next week and -$2.8bn over the next month (down from +$13.5bn just a few days ago). - an up market (>2 s/d's so a pretty big move higher) sees -$1.1bn in selling (higher because of the increased volatility) and -$80mn over the next month (the latter down from +$16.7bn). - a down market (more than -2.5 s/d's (so a big move lower)) sees -$0.4bn in selling over the next week (from +$16.5bn in buying a few days ago) and -$37.2bn of selling over the next month. The commentary notes: positioning in S&P is currently at $32.9bn vs historic max of $48.9bn.

Midterm Years vs SPX & Bitcoin What do you notice? Since 1990, we've seen 9 Midterm Years. Nearly everyone of them saw a correction midway through the year. 4 finished positive 5 finished negative. It's coincidental that post halving years (bear markets) for Bitcoin occur during midterm years?