Real change

@CRUDEOIL231 First thank you for trying to explain. It sounds good on paper but WHY then hasn’t paper converged with physical for months now?? As someone from metals the reason would be difficulty taking physical delivery because exchange not enforcing delivery requirements.

What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved? Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren't rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly. First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market. ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery. EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract. Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined. Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior). CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation. DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets. Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit. This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes. A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations. If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price. The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange's settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms: 1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index. The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract. Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130. Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price. 2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism) If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism. Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position. The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated. 3) Forced Short Covering Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside. Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration. They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date. This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market. Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches. #oott #iran

@OilCfd Nice - thanks! Source of the graph?

That's is more like it...

@chrismartenson It’s not too difficult to buy an oil futures contract and be more than well prepared regardless of most bad scenarios. Just sayin…

Oil executives, analysts, major banks, and even Reuters are now all reporting the same thing: the full impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure has not yet been felt, and it's coming. Expect major price spikes in energy right as the summer driving season is starting and inventory buffers are running out. Folks - this is serious, and you need to be prepared. Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/hypijghskq

@BestShvili @Acts17David

@Acts17David You had 3 hours with Andrew to explain the “weird alliance” and failed. Somehow I became ally of dawahgandists and a “Jay cult follower” in one day.

We're LIVE, discussing the weird alliance between dawahgandists and Christians: youtube.com/live/v7wpQj7FC…

@Athena_Alkis @BestShvili @Acts17David

@BestShvili @Acts17David Its not the Jews who murdered millions of our people and still doing it, its not the Jews who destroyed thousands of our churches and still doing it, its not the Jews who kept us in the dark ages while we where under islamic occupation. Wake the f up

THIS GUY GETS IT 👇

@ClownWorld Guess I’m ready to retire - who knew I had a fortune in rocks.

A woman at the stone yard completely shocked because they’re charging $175 for a small irregular boulder and $229 for a medium one. She’s walking around zooming in on the price tags going ‘do people actually pay $175 for a fucking rock?’ and ‘it gets better… these ones are $229’ while losing her mind over it. Plain rocks on pallets. Nothing special. She even says they’re not fucking gold, it’s just a rock.

@Adams_Tech_AI Reported for antisemitism.

Elon musk shares a lesson he learnt at PayPal:How to spot a toxic employee before it’s too late.

@r0ck3t23 This is why coffee shops are endlessly opening and full despite serving $5 espresso that you can make just as well for $1 at home with no schlep.

Elon Musk just told a story that should terrify every AI company on Earth. His son Saxon is autistic. Saxon couldn’t understand why the family went to restaurants. You can get the same food delivered. You can call your friends over. You can eat better at home for half the price. So why go? Musk: “He had an epiphany and said, ‘Oh, the reason people go to restaurants is to hang out with strangers.’” A kid who takes the world literally just decoded something the rest of us never thought to question. We like being around people we’ll never know. Look at what we already built. Delivery apps so you never wait in line. Remote work so you never share an office. Self-checkout so you never talk to a cashier. Every innovation of the last 20 years was a bet against human proximity. Every one paid off. Until it didn’t. Loneliness is now a public health emergency. Depression has doubled since the smartphone. The average American has fewer close friends than any generation in history. We didn’t remove friction. We removed the thing friction was hiding. Now look at what’s coming. AI agents that handle your emails. AI companions that replace your conversations. AI assistants that make every human interaction optional. Same playbook. Same bet. Except this time we’re not engineering out strangers. We’re engineering out humans entirely. The coffee shop where nobody knows your name. The subway where no one speaks. The restaurant where you’ll never see that couple again. Those aren’t failed connections. They’re the background radiation of belonging. We don’t just need people who know us. We need to exist in rooms full of people who don’t. That’s what a kid understood at a dinner table that billion-dollar companies still can’t grasp in a boardroom. We spent 20 years building a world you never have to show up to. AI is about to finish the job. And nothing it builds will ever replicate sitting in a room full of strangers and not feeling alone.

@Bobnmue @Acyn Stop “trading” until you at least understand how the market works including who (the Fed) is buying.

@Acyn Every single fucking person who bought this shit rally and rekt my puts has fucking blood on their hands. Congrats, dumb fucks, now he continues the fucking war because you fucking pumped it and it’s all he gives a fuck about, thousands dead for your fucking greed 🖕

Trump: We have consultants… Sir, if you do this, fuel is going to go to $300 a barrel. The depression is going to happen. That can't happen because we just hit a brand-new all-time high.

@richimedhurst As an energy and commodities trader, I’ll say you have the best analysis I’ve seen. Excellent insights which nearly everyone else misses.

Do not be fooled by the ceasefire in Iran. In 90 days, the US have launched an energy blitzkrieg: • Crippled Russia’s oil infrastructure 🇷🇺 • Disrupted 1/3 of China’s oil & LNG 🇨🇳 • Seized the planet’s largest oil fields 🇻🇪 • Seized Syria & Gaza's gas🛢️ This is the birth of the Petrogas-dollar and the Pirate State 🏴‍☠️

@chrismartenson I love govt financed easy trades

"Traders"

@newstart_2024 Easy solution, try to trade if you start thinking you’re smart.

“There's no one more narcissistic than someone who's smart.” Jordan Peterson delivers a razor-sharp warning in this 32-second clip: Intelligence is a gift — but it comes with a brutal temptation: pride. The smartest people who never achieve what they believe they're owed become the most bitter — convinced the world should have fallen at their feet, resenting everyone when it doesn't. Pride turns brilliance into poison. The higher the IQ, the more spectacular the fall when ego takes control. Peterson: “You can go very spectacularly wrong if you're smart… and it's pride that does that.” In a world full of brilliant but deeply resentful people — this hits like truth serum. Ever met someone incredibly smart who ended up consumed by bitterness? What do you think is the biggest pride trap for high-IQ folks? Clip is short, brutal, and impossible to unhear.

@chrismartenson You look like you’re politically and physically morphing into G Edward Griffon. Which is a great look!

When Big Tech shares my data with governments or corporations that have government-like powers, I'm in a dystopian nightmare the moment they decide to turn that Eye of Sauron on me. Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/mn6dtvduwf Check out holiday specials on my recommended privacy phones: abovephone.pulse.ly/hms9uhimtj

@Giant_1492 @elonmusk Women‘s rights

@elonmusk What do you think the biggest factor is in why birthrate is down so much?

So many countries have a collapsing birth rate

@seanmcginly where can we see it now?

A film I made a few years ago, "Silver Lake" starring Martin Starr, Deborah Ann Woll and Fred Melamed is now available on Itunes, Amazon, Vudu and Google Play. Check it out.

@carlmarino1 @ButDocIHatePink How on earth did you find her when police and nobody else could?

@Realchange1234 @ButDocIHatePink I sure did, because Butler asked me to come back to the case because the fake “pi moms” couldn’t do it. Apparently the “reality” show was more important than getting her back to her family.

Umm… exactly! Thank you for seeing through their nonsense.

@carlmarino1 Just watched it and was laughing at the crazy transparent smear attempt. Did you actually find the missing girl and how?? PI moms producer came off looking terrible despite Trainwreck’s best effort otherwise.

You think. Appalling that most people think a reality show, that we knew would never air anyhow, was more important than this…. But, yeah, it was all my fault. The entire show was a lie to begin with. I sabotaged nothing. #bitter

@carlmarino1 Just watched it and was laughing at the crazy transparent smear attempt. Did you actually find the missing girl and how?? Train wreck gave no details and laughably implied you should have held off saving anyone until PI moms could be filmed on the scene 🤣

It’s refreshing to see some people actually watched with an open mind and actually saw what was happening.

@ButDocIHatePink @carlmarino1 Just watched it and was laughing at the crazy transparent smear attempt. Did Carl actually find the missing girl and how? Train wreck was even vague that Carl truly found her.

@carlmarino1 I have enjoyed the Trainwreck series until now. Not only was the story unclear, the writing bad, it seems like jealous women were upset a kidnap victim was found?! And a drug dealer got put away? Wild. Worst show I’ve seen. Clearly a smear job.