RedPillReality

@WheelieInvestor That’s prof no one understands how to price in the AI race. I don’t think the party is over. I’m not attending tho, I don’t like making money

Can someone please explain how a $1 trillion company can go up 20% in one day?

@elonmusk @zerohedge SpaceX improperly used civilian starlink? How? Are y’all a military?

@zerohedge Not the Pentagon, the company did

*MUSK CLAIMS PENTAGON IMPROPERLY USED STARLINK CIVILIAN SYSTEM *MUSK COMMENTS ON REUTERS SPACEX PRICE STORY IN POST ON X

@miaminewtimes lol. Someone will take its place. Will it survive anywhere else tho?

After Coral Gables blocked a restaurant owner's proposal to host World Cup parties, he's selling his 25-year-old bierhaus. 🔗 miaminewtimes.com/food-drink/pop…

@stevehou He’s running from something. Most probably running from himself. Someone should tell him; where ever he goes, he will be there

Lex Fridman is hitchhiking with truckers in China using ChatGPT translator. Looks a bit sketch but seems to be having a good time.

@ayeejuju Tell him things either happen or don’t, but it’s not always 50/50. If I work for a company I will be compensated for it. Unless they go bankrupt in that week, but that’s like 90/10

@bryanrbeal Is this right before it closes? Or opens?

I don’t care what the “official” statistics tell you, when you go to a Home Depot on Memorial Day and you don’t see a single other soul in the entire store, something is wrong with the economy

@tomaskenn @BecauseMiami @MyFDOT_Miami

Sent to me by a friend: Waymo driverless vehicle driving on the wrong side of the Venetian Causeway #BecauseMiami

@OfficialJoelF Insurance claim before you sell to a high rise developer?

Large fire burning at a junkyard in Opa-locka 🔥

@DanXAura Original content is always appreciated

So Nikita called me and many others out for posting greetings. Meanwhile, Gregg, an account with 1.2M followers, posts “Good morning” and “Good night” almost every single day, but somehow Nikita doesn’t utter a word about that. Why?

@AnonXIV14 I’m proud of you soilder

Shut up, jеw. Watch me ratio you with mold.

@michaeljburry @aakashgupta If you’re “right” but not for the reasons you predicted, are you still right?

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years. It's hard to say I've never had the timing right. I was short Amazon at the top in 2000. I went way long small cap value in late 2000. I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002. In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into oil before a big run. I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later... In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did. In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009. In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok. In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not. In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows. In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID. In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history. Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked. During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund. In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it. IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok. July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023. 2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken. 2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious. 2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120. I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone. I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

Burry is mass-publishing the accounting case for his put options on Nvidia and Palantir while the rest of the market is still debating whether the capex cycle has legs. The math he’s referencing is specific. The Big Four hyperscalers just guided $650-700 billion in combined 2026 capex, a 60%+ increase from the $381 billion they spent in 2025. Amazon alone committed $200 billion, so far above the $146 billion consensus that the stock lost $450 billion in market cap over nine straight sessions. Burry’s core thesis is the depreciation trick. Nvidia’s GPU architecture runs on a 3-year cycle, with each generation delivering 2-3x more compute per watt. The H100s shipping today are economically obsolete by 2027. But the hyperscalers are depreciating them over 5-6 years. Burry estimates this gap understates depreciation by $176 billion between 2026 and 2028, inflating reported operating income by 20%+ at companies like Oracle and Meta. That’s the “accounting tricks” he’s referencing in the tweet. He did the math. The cash flow picture backs him up. Amazon is projected to go negative FCF in 2026, somewhere between -$17 billion (Morgan Stanley) and -$28 billion (BofA). Alphabet’s free cash flow is expected to collapse 90%, from $73.3 billion to $8.2 billion. The Big Five raised $108 billion in bonds in 2025 alone, more than 3x the average of the prior nine years. JP Morgan projects $1.5 trillion in tech debt issuance ahead. They’re repackaging data center debt as asset-backed securities, $13.3 billion this year, a structure with a history that includes Enron and 2008. The depreciation cliff is the part the market hasn’t priced. The five hyperscalers plan to add $2 trillion in AI-related assets by 2030. At 20% annual depreciation, that’s $400 billion per year, which exceeds their combined 2025 profits. And AI services currently generate roughly $25 billion in direct revenue against $650 billion in infrastructure spend. Four cents per dollar invested. But here’s where you have to be careful with Burry. He shorted Tesla at $180. It went to $1,200. He called the housing crisis two years early and nearly went bankrupt waiting for the trade to work. He bought puts on Nvidia and Palantir, capped-downside bets, because even he knows his timing is unreliable. The pattern with Burry is always the same: the structural analysis is correct, the timing is wrong, and the market can stay irrational long enough to wipe out the trade before it pays. He sees the depreciation cliff. He sees the accounting inflation. He sees the debt structures. All of that is real. The question is whether AI revenue scales fast enough to fill the gap before the write-downs hit. AWS alone runs at $142 billion annualized, growing 24%, with a $244 billion backlog. Google Cloud’s backlog surged 55% to $240 billion. These companies are monetizing capacity as fast as they install it. Burry is building the bear case in public so the crowd does the work for him. That’s the trade. Whether it pays depends on something Burry has never been good at: timing the moment when the music stops.

@BraedenSorbo It’s called a “Baker Act”

I have not seen anybody talking about what’s going on in Canada right now. This man was pulled over and told by police that he had to come with them because a psychiatrist labeled him “certifiable.” No paperwork, no rule of law, just a doctor saying that if he didn’t come with him right then and there that he would be arrested. The fact that a government could do this is terrifying.

@StealthQE4 @rinsana Nothing was misinterpreted, you just don’t understand how it works

@rinsana My tweet was misinterpreted but whatever.

So if Anthropic, SpaceX, and Open AI all go public around the same time the market will need to find $6 trillion dollars to soak up all of these IPO shares. Where’s the money going to come from?

@StealthQE4 That’s not how it works

@unusual_whales He only buys tops. This is a good sign

@washghost1 @elonmusk can we get a @boringcompany not a flamethrower??

I will be getting at least 2 of these this summer

@Zerosumgame33 Personally after them lying about earnings guidance I don’t trust a word anymore. I’m selling OTM calls on my position. Not in a rush to exit, but I won’t avoid them getting assigned

$EOSE 👀 appears it wasn’t telling the truth on round trip efficiency?

@FreemyerGreg @JoeMastrangelo8 @srvc76 I was here long enough to see an earnings guidance and an update which reiterated the earnings guidance only to miss by ~60%

Joe, I share Jessie's concern. It is clear that a year ago in the pre-DawnOS era the RTE problems were significant. That's okay from a technology perspective, but as a shareholder I feel disrespected not to have been told. I don't know the solution, but like many Eos shareholders I made a large financial investment into the company and seeing that slide with the pre-DawnOS felt like a stab to the heart. I haven't sold any shares, and I'm not planning to go anywhere. I know you can't can't share NDA materials with shareholders, but it would be disingenuous on your part to pretend shareholders shouldn't feel hurt by that slide.

$EOSE I want to be transparent. The ‘Specific Site Performance’ slide in the Q1 deck for RTE before DawnOS was disgusting. My equity ownership in the company has only increased since the disconnect following Q4 ER. But investors expect more updates, Joe.

@typesfaster Coconut water

Is there a good way to get a kidney stone out yet?

@MartinShkreli @typesfast Coconut water

@typesfast hasnt changed in 30 years afaik

Anybody working on this ?