Refiner

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Refiner

Refiner

@RefinerApp

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Earth Katılım Ağustos 2021
294 Takip Edilen128 Takipçiler
Jaytel
Jaytel@Jaytel·
4.7 is completely unusable
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Refiner
Refiner@RefinerApp·
@alma18499 there is nothing greater than God's love. Please take care of yourself and tap in to His power and mercy. ❤️
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Alma.Trk
Alma.Trk@alma271828·
⚠️Dear followers, I won't post nothing this week. I went to a monastery. I must be distracted, I must be with myself. I must be alone. my bag is too heavy, too much pain, I'm sick already, I can't do this... next week we will meet again. If I'll be still here... Thank you for your understanding. God bless you all. And take care of your loved ones please!! you can't say where the road goes... Hug her/him tight and just love each other. No temporal problems can be more important than the love between you. #stockmarket #life #relationship #love
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Alma.Trk
Alma.Trk@alma271828·
To be honest guys, yesterday the only #bearish signs were: 1) As I wrote: " $SPX is trading at the 2.5 sigma of the 20DMA, that signals an overstretched state, a bubble" 2) bidded-up #volatility, that mitigates vanna flow and gamma effect 3) the old "buy the rumor, sell the news" wisedom, after #CPI came out cool after a gamma squeeze day. The most important is the first one that works all the time, 2nd and 3rd aren't always matters if there is enough customer flow. $SPX literally pulled back to the 1.5 sigma of 20DMA. Statistically when $SPX touches the 2.5 sigma of 20DMA, it pulls back to the 20DMA in the following sessions. In this environment this would mean a retest of 5550 $SPX in the following sessions. #market net gamma decreased by 38.53%, near to 2nd of June levels. This releases some vol in theory. However yesterday the #volatility crush happened that I kept talking about it will happen. Fix strike streddle showed a 45% decrease in #volatility, and thats when 5576 (I signaled 5575) held the #market, and vanna flow could come in, also letting gamma work more. Most of the #bearish flow happened in the tech sector, mega caps. Put gammas have more control now. ☝️The thing we have to be aware of is if $SPX retest 5560 - 5550 zone, and if #volatility starts to elevate at 5560 $SPX. If it does, it will likely flip into negative gamma, and July #Opex will provide negative vanna/charm flow. The other sign you have to watch is if $ES_F can hold above 5609.77 lvl. As long as it holds it, #market got #bullish forecast. Note that 5550 - 5300 there is not too much strong support, especially if a deleveraging occurs. This is the #bearish scenario that is likely. In this Friday session $SPX got ~55B gamma expiring, 70.71% call gamma. As lots of calls went ATM now, gamma should be strong especially if #volatility remains low, but also the expo of those gammas can release vol. All eyes on $ES_F and #volatility now. This will tell. $SPX needs that positive vanna/charm this Friday to break above 5600 again. #optionstrading #riskmanagement #stockmarket $SPX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NQ $NQ_F $VIX $VVIX
Alma.Trk@alma271828

After yesterday's gamma squeeze net gamma increased by 11.25%, still lower than it was on Monday. Calls rolled up to 5700 $SPX, a #volatility and even $VIX went up on this rally. Long vols realized 1.25% vol yesterday with #market up. This is due to this heavy call activity and short and gamma squeezes going on. $SPX is trading at the 2.5 sigma of the 20DMA, that signals an overstretched state, a bubble. However I wouldn't go longer term shorts yet. As calls rolling upwards, and puts keep decaying, calls providing more deltas into the #market and gamma is supportive as well, I don't see any reason to call a top now until next Tuesday. #CPI release can harm it, I code 5610 as my primarly risk level, but 5600 $SPX is still a strong gamma wall. To the upside 5657.84 $SPX is an important support, that above the momentum can accelerate and squeeze towards 5700. If vol decreases after #CPI it even turns vanna flow on. Keep that in mind☝️ Fix strike straddle on a weekly basis foreshadows vol crush. Mean reversion threshold lvls for today: 5704.89 5687.12 5669.40 5651.63 5616.15 5598.44 5580.66 5562.95 $SPX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NQ $NQ_F $VIX $VVIX #optionstrading #intradaytrading #riskmanagement #stockmarket #tradingstrategy

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