Reid Callahan

197 posts

Reid Callahan

Reid Callahan

@Reidaround

Long term investor, trader that’s it

Phoenix, AZ Katılım Kasım 2025
39 Takip Edilen25 Takipçiler
Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
It could also be Iran resolves positively for markets - Hormuz opens, oil collapses, inflation tanks, rates get cut, economic outlook 180s and assets tied to growth and economic conditions melt up before a massive correction, for silver that could mean a retest of 50. It sounds crazy but I’ve learnt since 2020 to expect crazy things. Either way it may be a bullish pennant forming, if so it has a wild price target👇
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Oren Elbaz
Oren Elbaz@thesilverhermit·
Due to #Silver 's abrupt reversal yesterday, its consolidation pattern is not clearly defined. I'm pretty sure it's a falling wedge. But instead of a clear line, it now has an area of support as a lower boundary. I suspect than in the coming days and weeks it will continue to test this area, until it finds a more solid footing. But even after it breaks out of this wedge, it is likely to move sideways for a few months. Given the technical damage it sustained in the past few weeks, I expect it to become kind of boring for a while, as hot speculative money moves to other assets, and the smart money begins to accumulate. It will probably rally in earnest only in the 4th quarter of 2026, as the fear of deflation dissipates, and the reality of inflation sets in.
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ian bremmer
ian bremmer@ianbremmer·
one implication of trump not actually talking with iranian leaders is israel can’t assassinate them to end negotiations.
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
Broke parabolic trend. The open is well above at 4470. Many traders will dump here if we don’t reclaim the trend as support. Turns out the gold hoarders finally started claiming their insurance.
Reid Callahan tweet media
Reid Callahan@Reidaround

Major structure in gold not yet broken. If we can track sideways for a while and see the parabola act as support the bull market in PMs will resume. Silver might avoid a test of 50 if this happens to. Bit of a bloodbath in PMs today but you gotta zoom out when this happens. Best of luck folks.

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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@flagellan @GoUncensored I think they didn’t explicitly say that because that’s what the plan is. The US might be cocky but stupid? I doubt they’ll throw bodies into a mulcher by going into kharg. At least I hope🤷‍♂️
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Uncensored.AI
Uncensored.AI@GoUncensored·
We’re probably going to see gut-wrenching Deer Hunter style execution videos of some of the 5,000 Marines being sent to Kharg Island.
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
Been watching your content for about 5 years along with other bullish analysts and when you put out your spx 9500 target I thought I can’t see how events play out to get us there, especially this year. Trump looks like he *might broker a peace deal in the next few days, depends on the deal but if we go from WW3/total economic collapse to fed cutting/soft landing, oil in the 60s that’s one of the most violent swings in expectations/sentiment ever, 9500 then? Given the last 5 years nothing should surprise anyone.
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@NawafAlThani The US is quasi normalising relations with Iran by pulling sanctions😂😂 It’s like why don’t they kiss and make up already.
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Nawaf Al-Thani نواف بن مبارك آل ثاني
Nawaf Al-Thani نواف بن مبارك آل ثاني@NawafAlThani·
Before the war vs. now: Before the war, Iran’s power projection was more limited. Now it is targeting U.S. allies across the region and shows no sign of stopping. Before the war, Iranian oil was under sanctions. Now Washington is easing “limited” restrictions on Iranian oil sales while assuring everyone that, yes, Tehran may still get the money, but somehow it will be “difficult.” Before the war, Iran did not control the Strait of Hormuz. Now it is shaping access to the strait in practice, while U.S. partners such as India and Japan are seeking, and receiving, Tehran’s approval for their ships to pass. That is real political leverage. Before the war, regime change was still part of the conversation. Now even reports from inside the U.S. administration suggest it is nowhere close. Before the war, gas prices were lower and “forever wars” were supposed to be behind us. Today, do I even need to say it? From the U.S. administration’s perspective: “winning?” That does not mean the United States cannot still prevail in this war. But at what cost, and toward what end? Innocent lives are now trapped between an unclear strategy and a terror regime. This is a war that will not be decided kinetically by either side. In the end, it will be decided by diplomacy alone.
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
I feel like we have 1 week, 2 at the most to get the Iran situation resolved. If not something is going to break.
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston

More and more people are saying... "Saudi Arabia’s oil officials are working frantically to project how high oil prices might go if the Iran war and its disruption of energy supplies doesn’t end soon—and they don’t like what they are seeing. The base case ... is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April."

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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@Lisa9Sophia Funny you can’t blame migrants for housing shortages by panic buying houses.
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Lisa
Lisa@Lisa9Sophia·
smh.com.au/business/compa… The fuel chief is already doing what Labor hired her to do Take the heat of Chris Bowen’s failures and blame the public and the farmers
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@KingKong9888 You know the ultimate power move would be for the US to help rebuild Iran, US oil companies get access to Iranian oil and their markets, and Iran agrees to buy USTs. A normalisation of relations🤣🤣🤣🤣
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Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕
Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕@KingKong9888·
If Trump is winning and this is all planned, they won’t be freaking out right now. This is the end of the Petrodollar but not the end of the Dollar. No one in the neighborhood would pay the Mafia boss protection money if that protection turns out to be BS. I am going to start blocking 100D chess Bullshitters. They are either BOTS or they are lunatics who are hurting people with their delusional BS.
Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕@KingKong9888

You have a lot of “levers”. Scott Bessent: In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.

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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@FinanceLancelot We’re at war with Iran but we’re dropping sanctions on them aswell fuck me. This is a shitshow maximus 1000
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Financelot
Financelot@FinanceLancelot·
BREAKING: Scott Bessent says the Trump administration is considering unsanctioning Iranian oil that's on the water 🤪
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
Major structure in gold not yet broken. If we can track sideways for a while and see the parabola act as support the bull market in PMs will resume. Silver might avoid a test of 50 if this happens to. Bit of a bloodbath in PMs today but you gotta zoom out when this happens. Best of luck folks.
Reid Callahan tweet mediaReid Callahan tweet media
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
The S&P 500 has been trading on the mother of all parabolas. A more than decade long trendline. I believe that should it treat that trend as resistance it will mark a major technical breakdown and the start of a likewise major bear market in US stocks. I could be wrong but I don’t believe should we test the Feb 25’ high at 6100 that we see new ATHs any time soon, in that way I think 6400/6500 is going to be critical if you’re betting on upside. New ATHs are contingent on Iran de-escalation. Some type of deal that sees oil flowing through the straight of Hormuz. Without that, I think we’re gonna have a black Monday. If not that, then next week will be very red. I think there’s no doubt if the Iran war goes on the way it has for another month global markets are gonna be a pile of smouldering ruins. We’re about to learn if the elites are ready to crash this thing.
Reid Callahan tweet media
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

Reserve Bank of Australia cautions that the Middle East conflict may trigger a significant international financial disruption.

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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
With the likelihood of inflation drifting higher the recent drop in cpi gave them cover for a cut as insurance as you point out, that same cover would also assist in maintaining credibility. That window for a cut will probably close now. I thought they might surprise and cut to. Agree fully here.
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EndGame Macro
EndGame Macro@onechancefreedm·
The Fed Is Risking a Late Cycle Mistake I think the Fed should have cut 25 bps and framed it as insurance. The Committee’s own statement said job gains have remained low, inflation remains somewhat elevated, uncertainty about the outlook remains elevated, and the implications of developments in the Middle East are uncertain, while also stressing that it is attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate. That is not the language of an economy running too hot on genuine demand. It is the language of a central bank staring at a geopolitical supply shock that is already tightening conditions by itself through higher energy, freight, and operating costs. In that setting, holding the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% risks confusing inflation optics with economic strength. The real economy is not sending a clean strength signal. February payrolls fell by 92,000 and unemployment was 4.4%. Powell also said housing has remained weak and that labor demand has clearly softened. Even the inflation data do not describe a healthy economy. February PPI rose 0.7%, and core final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5%, but inside that same report airline passenger services fell, television advertising time sales dropped 7.9% on the month and 18.0% on the year, and business loans were down 24.8% on the year. That is a late cycle economy absorbing a cost shock while demand, credit formation, and pricing power deteriorate underneath. In that environment, a 25 point cut would not have been an inflation surrender. It would have been a recognition that the bigger risk now is being late to the slowdown, not early to the inflation fight.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, officially halting interest rate cuts for the 2nd straight meeting.

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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
I’m not alone in thinking that if oil trades where it is now for the next few months you are going to see cuts or balance sheet expansion, there’s absolutely no doubt about it. The Fed is gonna focus on the employment side of its dual mandate eventually. The labor market is dripping right now and cuts might come to prevent a waterfall ie skyrocketing unemployment. The Fed will be looking for the best opportunity to cut where the market responds positively - it will want to avoid emergency meetings. With CPI at 2.4% after falling from 3.1% do they choose today to cut? If Iran continues for months(looking likely) and oil continues higher inflation will follow and the ability to sell a cut to the bond market as responsible goes in the bin along with Fed credibility. Not a call I would put money on(99% chance no cut) but won’t be surprised if this plays out.
Reid Callahan tweet media
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@KillAuDeepState Gonna be wild if any of this is true. You’re probably crazy but then again everything the past 6 years has been crazy.
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Dr Russell McGregor
Dr Russell McGregor@KillAuDeepState·
I am going to make this VERY clear because many simply do not have the knowledge to understand what is happening: 1) President Trump and the U.S Military/NSA submitted Israel years ago 2) Trump, Putin and Xi are working together to rid the world of the deep state 3) The Rothschilds are already defeated 4) Israel and Zionism are being publicly exposed to the world for their crimes - it is a cornerstone of the plan 5) The Israel/Iran war is fake, it is a psychological operation to wake up the masses - especially Leftists and Christian Zionists 6) President Trump will enact long-lasting peace in the Middle East and deport non-integrators back. This will also save Europe. 7) Psychopathic Zionist/‘American Neocon’ foreign policy is being SHOWN to the world - this is the ONLY way refractory ideologues can LEARN 8) President Trump is also using the ‘war’ as a method to bring in a new financial system 9) President Trump is testing the loyalty of ‘allies’ who are trying to protect the City of London, and the ‘rules based order’ 10) President Trump will reverse course on Iran and cement permanent peace treaties in the Middle East. The ‘Greater Israel Project’ will be dead. 11) DECLAS will expose all those who doubted President Trump 12) Importantly elite ‘crimes against children’ and the zionist paedophilic blackmail industry will be laid bare as the enforcement arm of American foreign policy End/
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@matt_barrie Australia needs more immigrants to drill and refine oil for more immigrants😂😂
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Matt Barrie
Matt Barrie@matt_barrie·
Surely in a spiraling energy and cost of living crisis it would make sense for Albo to cut immigration right back
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
@DaveHcontrarian @PalisadesRadio I gotta say the oil path you describe will be the ultimate contrarian call. I don’t know how many times I’ve seen folks saying oil has nowhere to go but up in the past few weeks. Definitely look forward to seeing that.
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David Hunter
David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian·
Here's my latest interview recorded 3/11/26 with Stijn Schmitz @PalisadesRadio. Talked about my current market outlook,Iran,my metals outlook,rates,the coming global bust & what lies beyond. youtube.com/watch?v=JYAZq4…
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YouTube
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Reid Callahan
Reid Callahan@Reidaround·
I think 78-80 is key. We’ve seen it flipping support/resistance several times the past few weeks. If it forms the next higher low 102 is potentially a target. If it breaks, definitely going to 70 and very likely back to the 60s. I’m heavily long PMs miners and hoping for the former👌
Reid Callahan tweet mediaReid Callahan tweet media
Reid Callahan@Reidaround

All of silver’s biggest rallies for the past couple of months have originated around the red arc or at 70-72. I think today we find out if we are going to make a higher low. I’d say we’re building a base here if the US wasn’t bombing Iran and oil was trading down in the 70s. Solid green close and some de-escalation in Iran would be great to see.

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Keşfet

@ianbremmer @chrismartenson @flagellan @GoUncensored @theandymillette @NawafAlThani @Lisa9Sophia @KingKong9888