PolyBets

I predicted the US x Iran peace deal on Polymarket. and profited almost 10k in a time span of 24hrs. 🥂

July 9th | US-Iran daily conflict briefing | [THREAD] Today’s headline: Real Strikes, No Acknowledged Striker: Southern Iran Hit for Third Night as US Denies Involvement Read our full article for free: heimdallsbrief.com/briefings/2026…

@CarOnPolymarket Did he read FIFA's script for this game? 👀

It's insane how much money some people have This guy is casually putting $5M on France & Morocco to score more than 2.5 goals I'm copying him with $250 lol

@HeimsdallsBrief Great summary, thanks!

July 8th | US-Iran conflict briefing [THREAD] Today's headline: Ceasefire "Over": Second Night of US Strikes Hits Iran's Coast, Golestan as Tehran Suspends Talks Read the full article: heimdallsbrief.com/briefings/2026…

@bosaurum @bernardbulletin Peace at last. I appreciate your clarifications, though we may not have always agreed on them, they were good for the community nonetheless. Best of luck on your future ventures.

generational run i'll miss you guys

Link to market: polymarket.com/event/iran-suc… --------------- Current conditions have been looking pretty bad in the Strait of Hormuz for the past days, with multiple strikes hitting ships in the last two weeks.. We built an enhanced poisson model & monte carlo simulations to get the probability results. In a continued high-tension environment, the probability of at least one additional qualifying incident reached 99.5% to 100%. Even under a de-escalation scenario with lower tension levels and a longer interval since the last major response, the probability remained between 96% and 99%.

This Polymarket is almost CERTAIN to resolve as YES. "Iran Successfully Targets Shipping by August 31?" See in this thread why.. (Full article on: poly-bets.com/politics/iran-… )

@DanDr1s @iamgroguu where's gpt 5.6 bro..

@iamgroguu People did not believe me haha

🚨 Sonnet 5 is out!!

@PerditionOnPoly Truth at last..

@Bonnet657 @polyint @Polymarket Nah man, they removed predition too. He's gone.

@polyint @Polymarket Can you really prove he is no longer working there? Perhaps it's all a series of glitches and coincidences. I'm skeptical

Real crisis of confidence @Polymarket . Firing head of markets and flipping a .96c market on the same day is something only they could pull off. I would not recommend anyone bet on any contestable markets for several months.

@polyint @Polymarket 100% agree with this. Firing the head of markets, waiting a day with clarification, flipping the market from 0.04 to 1 is insanity.

Argentina odds of winning went from 4.5% to 100% during their crazy 13 minute long comeback. Absolute cinema of a match.

July 6th | US-Iran conflict briefing [THREAD] Today's headline: Tanker struck near Oman in first reported kinetic incident in Strait of Hormuz in weeks Full article: heimdallsbrief.com/briefings/tank…

Kalshi market: kalshi.com/markets/kxtrum…

Trump is very likely to watch the final of the worldcup in the Mets stadium. Who would also be there? Zohran Mamdami. What would the odds be that they have a chat? 👀

There's a couple of interesting Polymarkets for this news. polymarket.com/event/who-will… Brackets would be Netanyahu and of course Aoun.

I made over $2.5k thanks to my dispute alert system. It alerts me whenever a dispute happens, which are super high volume markets with a lot of opportunity. My dispute alert system is available for free in my Discord. Join now: poly-bets.com/discord

+1.5k for me.

Bonus: One can even argue that the rules in paragraph 1 clearly define a lid call. The 4am lid call does by no means match this description, as it clearly did not call a lid for the 4th. "Does the lid call for the 3rd of July on the 4th call to an end of activities for the press pool? No. Thus it's not a qualifying lid call per the first paragraph."

Polymarket's biggest dispute is currently cooking.. Did the white house call a lid before 6.30PM on July the 4th? YES argues that the called lid at 4am counts, however it's clearly for the third. Should we follow rules to the T, or use our common sense?

Link to market: polymarket.com/event/will-the…