ArunK

TERMINATION SHOCK IS HERE. Please review these charts until it is clear that we have entered a NEW regime of warming since this regulation. El Nino is coming too.

Learning lessons from Jurassic Park

Earth's Energy Imbalance has more than doubled! Based on basic physics, we should expect this to result in much faster global temperature increase, which we now start to see. The NASA CERES (climatology corrected) Earth's Energy Imblance over the past 8 months was +2.0 W/m²!

A physics-based analysis concludes that this year will be the warmest, not second warmest. In any case, we can learn something about climate change. See 2026 On Track for Warmest Year – mailchi.mp/caa/2026-on-tr… Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/2026-on-trac…

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? That’s not hype, it’s the actual median forecast right now for the developing event later this year. It could rival — or even surpass — the legendary 1877 El Niño, the strongest on record, which was linked to widespread drought, monsoon failure, and global food crises in parts of Asia, Africa, and South America. But what does that mean today? It means a tremendous amount of excess ocean heat being released into the atmosphere - energy that can rearrange weather patterns around the world. That typically leads to: 🌧️ Increased flood risk in some regions 🔥 More intense/ prolonged heatwaves, drought and fires 🌪️ A shift in severe storm tracks 🌀 And often a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, but boosted in the East Pacific. Since it’s so huge, when the Pacific talks, the atmosphere listens! But this isn’t 1877… forecasting, infrastructure, and global awareness are far better today. We’ll be better prepared. Now transparency on the science: the 1877 3-month Nino 3.4 ocean temp anomaly maxed out at +2.7°C. The latest median forecast for all ensembles in late 2026 is +2.75°C in the Nino 3.4 region. So, it may be stronger. Here’s the caveat: that region is now approx .75 - 1°C warmer than it was in 1855, so some of the heat building up there is on top of a baseline which is already warmer today. So in absolutes… this will probably rival 1877, but relatively speaking due to global warming, the event will likely fall short and thus its global impacts may not rise to that level. That’s why we now have the RONI (index) which accounts for our new warmed World. (Pictured here is the October NMME with a region of +3-4°C over the East Tropical Pacific) Will certainly be interesting to watch from a scientific perspective.

It’s shaping up to be a very strong - possibly even the strongest- El Niño on record. Here’s what global temperatures were for strong Niños (yellow) and very strong Niños (orange) since 1950: (Strong in 57-59; 65-66; 72-73; 87-88; 91-92; 23-24) (very strong in 82-83; 97-98; 15-16)

BOM de Australia, Mapa del Pronóstico de la Temp. de la Superficie del Mar (SST) para Julio y gráfico de la región Niño 3.4...... Desde mayo supera el umbral para el desarrollo de El Niño y alcanza la categoría: "Super" El Niño>2°C. intense and rapid warming.

The latest CFS forecasts for El Niño need no hyperbole or exaggeration. The traditional Nino 3.4 region might actually be +3.4°C lol - I can’t tell because some of the members and also the mean are literally off the chart. The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like 2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83. The original index is good to look at for comparison sake. But the Relative index will give us a better idea of the impacts of the event. That’s because El Niño is most impactful when its anomalies are the highest compared to other adjacent regions/ basins. In 2023 there was a strong-ish El Niño but the Atlantic was also warm, diluting the El Niño impacts and allowing major hurricane Idalia to form in the Gulf.

A reminder of where we stand. Source: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visual…

A planet-warming El Niño climate phase is now developing, and some models predict it could turn out to be the strongest on record #Echobox=1777200483" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">newscientist.com/article/252303…

🚨BREAKING🚨 The most recent RELATIVE Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) forecast shows we could be facing the strongest El Niño in observed history!! This could lead to dystopian global climate change impacts over the next 1.5 years. No one is prepared.

EXCLUSIVE: In 2002, systems analyst @TadHomerDixon modelled how modern civilisation collapses. He chose an Iran war closing the Strait of Hormuz as his example. The mechanism? "synchronous failure." We are now living inside his model /1🧵@bylinetimes bylinetimes.com/2026/04/16/the…

HOLY SHIT!!!! CHRISTINA KOCH CAUGHT EARTHSHINE ON VIDEO DURING ARTEMIS II AND ITS STUNNING!!!!! LOOK AT OUR PLANETA

Dozens of IRGC speedboats have been seen from satellite imagery heading in large groups away from the Middle of the Hormuz Strait suggesting they are actively mining it.

Las reservas de fuel para aviones están por los suelos

We’re almost certainly heading towards an El Niño, if not a super El Niño later this year. Which is very bad.

The whole world is preparing for war

The problem with being ahead of the curve is everyone thinks you're retarded

⚠️Jet Fuel transported Worldwide is in rapid decline. Australia imports most of its kerosene (jet fuel). Expect major domestic and international flight cancellations in next 8 weeks.

This hurdy-gurdy performance is straight-up mesmerizing 🔥🎶 That rich, droning wheel-turned sound mixed with haunting melodies — every musical instrument really does have its own unique way of expressing pure beauty!

Loss of energy output in MidEast will take about two years to recover, IEA says reut.rs/3QKivvi reut.rs/3QKivvi