Richard Kin

Tom Lee says the May/June SPY crash will feel like hell, but you just buy the dip for SPY target $770+ Here's exactly what's coming from @fundstrat: 1/ The Timeline New Fed chair confirmation is starting NOW. Kevin Warsh. Senate floor vote could come 50-70 days after committee. That puts a new Fed chair in place by June-July 2026. 2/ History doesn't lie and it's horrifying "10 of 13 Fed chairs had a drawdown of more than 10% in the first year. So I think it's more the rule than the exception that we're going to get a drawdown." says Tom Lee Since 1930, the SPY has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the 1-, 3-, and 6-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm all larger than the typical peak-to-trough drop in a randomly selected year, per Barclays. This isn't a black swan. It's a pattern. 3/ The Road Map "We originally said that the market could get towards 7,300. And it looks like we're on a path towards that. We're well over 7,000. And then we'll have a decline that will feel like a bear market. Perhaps it's because of the market testing new Fed chair." — Tom Lee The data backing this: The median intra-year drawdown from an all-time high in the SPT since 1980 is 10.4%. Statistically, there's a 50% chance the index drops 10% or more at some point in 2026. Feel like a bear market = -15% to -20% easily on the table. 4/ But Mag 7, crypto, and software are ALREADY bleeding "Keep in mind, a lot of the markets have already had a drawdown in the Mag 7, crypto, and software."— Tom Lee The broad index hasn't felt it yet. Rotation is a warning shot, not a safety net. 5/ Then… the rally of a lifetime "I think a rally follows because fundamentals are strengthening maybe one of the strongest rallies we'll see in our lifetime."— Tom Lee Since 1980, the average intra-year drawdown has been over 14% yet the SPY has still averaged 10.7% annual gains during that same period. Double-digit drops have historically come with double-digit annual gains. The flush is the setup. 6/ His final warning: "Just a reminder just don't time the market, even if you're tempted to." says Tom Lee So this is the full sequence:SPY → 7,300 than New Fed chair → 10-16% drawdown then rally of our lifetime

@darrencao2024 如果就拿一个PE来定估值的话，有小学算术水平的人都可以成为巴菲特了。09年金融风暴之前，那些倒掉的银行股的PE都是个位数的，比20倍低多了。

@MasterPandaWu You are fucking killing me. Target was 7245 mow 7350. And when it takes that out you’ll say no more top