RS

@adamtaggart Sad state of affairs but I have followed closely and read a lot of views and articles and it's been hard to get an accurate picture of the truth. Also doesn't help when politicians are spinning stories to influence and manipulate markets and narratives

@RichardStarr_6 Wise advice

Important development: the 1st public indication we've seen that Iran is open to suspending nuclear enrichment IMO: this is Iran blinking Now that the US knows they're willing to bend, it's likely going to apply whatever pressure it needs to in order to get Iran to concede to a 20+ year ban

@SpencerGuard Iran has all the options. At every escalation stage they have an answer

Yep. U.S. has many options if the fighting resumes.

@ces921 Smells like an attempt to get a broken ceasefire narrative with resulting popular support to send in ground troops

So Hormuz is now open? Did Trump run this by Iran? Asking for a friend

@adamtaggart He is in a corner and ultimately think the lost credibility of not following through with his threat will push him to bomb

Less than 4 hours to go What to you predict will happen at 8pmET tonight?

@ces921 His tweets look like a man desperate. He knows he is in a corner. We are on the brink of something

@ces921 The difference is Liberation Day was in his control and this has got out of his control

This feels like the setup in Liberation Day last year. Fairly binary outcome here this evening, most people believe that he will TACO and given how markets reacted to him not TACO-ing last April 2nd, the odds of him TACO-ing now are likely even greater in the eyes of the market. And given where his polling data is, the odds of trying to create a TACO off-ramp are higher here as well. But Iran knows this as well, pushing Trump to decision time.

@SpeculatorPL1 Also some helium plays to look at

@RichardStarr_6 Just checked the data on this. $MOS is lagging because its trailing metrics look terrible on paper right now—it took the full hit of the potash cycle bottom. It's a classic ugly, deep-value setup.

Everyone is hyper-focused on Gold and Silver, but they are missing the most explosive breakout on the board. 🚨 The Bloomberg Agriculture & Livestock Index ( $BCOMAVT ) is officially breaking out of a massive, multi-year monthly wedge. The rotation into real, tangible assets is expanding. You can't print food. 🌾🚜👇

@LukeGromen Sincerely hope that we have our oil resources on high security alert with maximum protection because if you are Iran and you want to put us in deep s*it then you attack these when the time is right

In COVID oil demand was down 9.2% y/y. All it took was shutting down much of the economy & handing out stimmy’s. You think we can shut the economy more than COVID, with no stimulus and without stock & bond markets, banking systems, & sovereign credit blowing up? 🤦‍♂️

@Hedgeye Woah shows how bad inflation is and how much people are having to work to get by

Over 70 million Americans, or 36% of the total workforce, participate in freelance work

@WallStreetMav Ground troops will be used, the movement and build up of troops is not a bluff, their use is an inevitability. Air power is running out of achievable targets, but there are still many targets they just cannot be destroyed by air power alone. Buckle up for a long war

The Iran war won't last forever. I give it a few more weeks of bombing at best. Trump is not going to invade with American soldiers. The Conservatives are mostly fine with an air bombing campaign, but nobody except Lindsey Graham wants a full invasion. Most military targets are already destroyed. The economy of Iran is wrecked for years to come. Critical bridges, electric grid infrastructure, steel factories .. will take years to rebuild. The leadership is decimated. 99% of the top 300 leaders (religious and military) are dead. The bombing campaign is running out of useful targets. They have all been hit at this point. Trump could stop the active bombing, but continue to maintain the air dominance with US planes controlling the air space, denying Iran any flights. Wait and see what develops with the new leadership of Iran. There will be a power struggle in Iran as the mid level leaders come out of hiding. It remains to be seen what the policies of the new leaders will be. That is really the only path forward. We don't want to invade and occupy Iran. At some point we have to sit back and see what forms in the new Iran.

@SpeculatorPL1 Thanks for checking up on this!

@SpeculatorPL1 Also IPI has been on a tear

@SpeculatorPL1 I was looking at MOS yesterday. What's the story behind the catastrophic collapse in the stock price? And seems like it's lagging its peers. Is there something specific to the company that's wrong?

@SpeculatorPL1 Awesome post btw!!!

Here are 3 Large-Cap titans. Notice how Wall Street consensus targets are severely lagging the technical breakout. That's your edge. 🧩 ✅ $DE (Deere): The precision Ag monopoly. Wall St Upside: +17.61% Fwd P/E: 20.23 ✅ $NTR (Nutrien): The world's largest fertilizer company. Wall St Upside: +6.49% Fwd P/E: 15.45 (Solid value) ✅ $CTVA (Corteva): Drought-resistant seed leader. Wall St Upside: -0.28% (Analysts are asleep) Fwd P/E: 18.43

@TheMichaelEvery The person you introduced me to - war theory by kris is phenomenal. His view is far more chaotic and worrying. It's at odds with this as he argues the president & military are at odds so there's no cohesive US strategy. I hope he's wrong or we are headed for even more of a mess

It *could* be, as I’ve been arguing for weeks… which is why escalation to try to deescalate on US terms is still the most logical path ahead. If that then works, 2026 opens up all kinds of ‘reverse perestroika’ possibilities (and necessities).

@BrianKuszmar Hedgeye is currently nailing the timing of silver, gold, miners and broader commodities as part of 4th turning and quads. When they signal to buy gold and silver miners I will

@BrianKuszmar Definitely the beginnings of a crash. Will be buying silver/gold mining stocks during the eye of the storm

It's possible we are seeing the beginnings of a economic crash-? Remember, metals got dropped just like every other asset did during 2008, except metals exploded shortly after the 2008 meltdown. If this is the case, save some ammo to buy the BIG DIP- If not, ride this tsunami on your Golden/Silver Surfboard... zerohedge.com/markets/privat…

@BrianKuszmar I'm concerned for the future of our country. i will be trying to get as much physical precious metals as I can. I worry that things may get so bad that I will need to use them in what we take for granted now as every day transactions

Is permitting adversaries (Brics) to accumulate gold and silver, genuine forms of money, at artificially low prices, truly a form of 5D chess strategy? Unlikely. However, it does provide discerning Americans with an opportunity to acquire these assets at favorable prices while they remain available. Just my opinion. What is your opinion?

@Macrobysunil This has not aged well. Timestamp your mistake. You will be able to buy at lower levels

Closed my crude oil long position, which had been serving as a portfolio hedge, not due to a bearish view, but because the inverse correlation between oil and gold has turned positive, reducing its effectiveness as a hedge. With oil, gold, and silver all currently in Green, and increasing odds of a broader relief rally across markets, I have rotated exposure by adding to silver at current levels.