Richard Casey

This to win The Masters... and the LIV never happens.

True, but when you export 10x more to Mexico than you import, your leverage is not huge. Especially when considering Mexico doesnt import a lot of rare earths China says it has right to retaliate against Mexico's tariff hikes reuters.com/world/china/ch…

have few options with plummeting property prices and underperforming equities, which is why they piled into gold and silver. Perhaps some rotating out of gold into bonds by Chinese investors. Gavekal, trying to pivot out of their terrible perma bullish China equity calls.

Safe haven for 2 weeks🙄after massively underperforming other EM bond markets last year. Foreigners been net sellers of Chinese bonds for 10 straight months. Where would Chinese yields be without capital controls on $47tn of low yielding deposits? Chinese investors 1/2

February 17, 2026: Hedge fund Caxton raises fees. Management and performance charges will increase after firm delivers record profits March 25, 2026: Hedge fund Caxton extends losses to $1.3bn, down 15% so far this month

Starting to get late February 2020 vibes when market hit new highs despite a rapidly worsening global pandemic Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal and called US talks “illogical,” according to the nation’s semi-official news agency Fars

Donroe Doctrine Update: Odds of Latin American Blue Wave reaching Brazil keep improving

@KQ992017 The continental army had quite a bit more popular support than the current Iranian regime. Regardless, hyperinflation, collapsing currency and bank runs are probably not net positives in any war

@Richard_Casey The continental hyperinflated during the Revolutionary War, so that means the American colonists lost to the British, right?

Is this what winning a war looks like? Iran rolled out new 10mn rial bills, worth $7, as authorities seek to manage spiralling inflation and demand for hard cash. Iranians queued in long lines at cashpoints, fearing electronic systems could fail. Many quickly ran out of cash

But a BRICS currency is coming any day now… BRICS members have failed to take a common position on the war. Driving the impasse is fact that multiple members of bloc are on different sides of the conflict, making any hard consensus difficult to wrangle bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@stevehou When was the last time Jensen Huang was not permitted to leave the US for selling NVDA chips to China?

@Richard_Casey It’s not technically in spirit too different from penalizing NVidia or anyone else selling their products to China when you really think about it. Why is it a crime to sell my products/business to whomever I want?

For the crime of selling their company to Meta... Chinese authorities barred two Manus co-founders from leaving the country, the FT reported, heightening scrutiny over Meta’s acquisition of the fast-rising agentic AI startup bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

One thing that the Iran conflict hasn't impacted is China tech stocks. They just keep on falling

But Iran can't possibly be about China and global control of energy and maritime chokepoints... Investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volume on path to exceed last year’s record. China relied on net exports for third of its economic growth in 2025 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

but dollar's days are numbered... local champions like Arm Holdings and Spotify turn to US for deeper pools of capital...“When European company lists in US, center of gravity shifts”... “decision looks financial, but really about where company grows up.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@BobMurphyEcon @SantiagoAuFund @TheMichaelEvery USDs days are numbered is a ridiculous statement even if not based upon a post on X by a guy known for posting unverified AI generated slop

If this guy's description is accurate, it demonstrates how sophisticated the Iranians are. I have been arguing (most prominently on ZeroHedge against @SantiagoAuFund and @TheMichaelEvery) that the USD's days are numbered, and I think this is yet more evidence.

It’s the result of a lack of a coherent industrial policy, which you don’t think is necessary, despite it resulting in the offshoring of much of the industrial base. Stupid politicians and greedy short sighted CEOs. China has been waging economic warfare against every country that wants to maintain or develop a domestic industrial capacity, still the route for development in Global South.

@Richard_Casey @dandolfa Are you asserting that it's somehow China's fault that the US has not adequately invested in public infrastructure?

At least during the 1990s-2000s, US trade deficits were overwhelmingly driven by foreign demand for saving as I show here: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…. (This is the one thing I largely agree with Pettis on!) But to the extent that foreign demand for saving is driven by export subsidies and other industrial policies, this mechanism constitutes a transfer from foreign households to American ones. The opportunity to buy "artificially" cheap imports makes Americans better off! (This, of course, is where I strongly disagree with Pettis.) There are other potential channels through which global imbalances could hurt the US economy, such as @LucaFornaro3's paper x.com/LucaFornaro3/s…, which I believe may be more salient today than in the past. But the first channel above nevertheless still operates: all else equal, US trade deficits stemming from foreign government policy constitute a transfer of resources from the foreign taxpayers who are ultimately responsible for financing these interventions to Americans.

Good to see Italy putting its Navy to good use