@Silverback82804 @Dioclet54046121 Just desperate bankers trying to trigger algos to dump paper
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KQQ85
3.3K posts
@0xcoked @GarrettBullish What does “basically a native to the region” mean?
Are you Iranian? Diaspora? Gulf citizen? Gulf ex pat?
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Both Iran and Israel escalating, sending more missiles. U.S. topping up its stockpiles and all new forces arriving this Friday. Escalating. Nothing new today.
Garrett@GarrettBullish
A 45,000-ton "Lightning Carrier" with 14 stealth fighters is 48 hours from the Persian Gulf. 82nd Airborne on standby. 50,000 troops assembling, the largest US amphibious buildup since Vietnam. A month ago, none of this was imaginable. Stretch the timeline to 50 years, every step has a traceable origin. Read↓ open.substack.com/pub/garrettres…
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@Richard_Casey The continental hyperinflated during the Revolutionary War, so that means the American colonists lost to the British, right?
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Is this what winning a war looks like?
Iran rolled out new 10mn rial bills, worth $7, as authorities seek to manage spiralling inflation and demand for hard cash. Iranians queued in long lines at cashpoints, fearing electronic systems could fail. Many quickly ran out of cash
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@theguiltlessman @Jennyjinx @alon_mizrahi @AGDugin why take Taiwan with kinetic action when Taiwan capitulates in 4 weeks due to lack of energy shipments?
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It is very, very rare to hear China use such terms. They are so level headed and pragmatic usually. When a formal Chinese speaker uses this kind of strong, direct language, it should send chills down the spine of Western leaders.
China is a massive giant with unlimited capabilities. And it stands 100% with Iran. This cannot end in anything but a resounding defeat for the US and Israel
✦✦✦ 𝙿𝚊𝚖𝚙𝚑𝚕𝚎𝚝𝚜 ✦✦✦@PamphletsY
🚨🇨🇳🇺🇸🇮🇱 BREAKING — Victor Gao “Humanity must Unite to Defeat Global Epstein Class” “Wars Waged By U.S. & Israel Contain Evil Elements”
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@yieldsearcher The only thing this means is that the war is now to a point where the previous fence sitters are unable to keep sitting on the fence and have to pick sides.
Lebanon will probably fall into civil war, which will then drag Iraq in.
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Hezbollah is done.
Fintwit: Iran is winning!
Yashar Ali 🐘@yashar
BREAKING The Lebanese government has declared Mohammad Reza Shibani, the ambassador-designate of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to be persona non grata and is giving him until Sunday to leave Lebanon. This makes four Arab nations that have expelled Islamic Republic of Iran diplomats in the last week. Lebanon joins Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
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@KingKong9888 If GCC were selling a lot of their oil for CNY through SGE before the war, then they are likely not the big sellers now. Any sale would be for CNY and stuck in the Chinese banking system and they would not be able to get USD to run operations.
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Before the war, 50% of the oil Saudi Arabia sold to China was paid for in Chinese RMB (yuan).
100% of the oil Iran sold to China was paid for in Chinese RMB (yuan).
It’s unclear how much of the oil sold to China by the rest of the GCC countries was payable in yuan.
The reserve asset these countries used for their oil sales surplus in RMB Yuan was physical gold.
This would have meant a large, ongoing, and largely under-the-radar accumulation of physical gold.
Yes, Iran is demanding that all oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz be paid for in Chinese RMB (yuan).
However, if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a war zone, how much oil will actually flow out of the GCC countries?
This could drastically reduce both USD recycling into U.S. Treasuries and RMB recycling into physical gold via the GCC countries.
#Gold #Silver
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@policytensor @tim_sandsquid63 If we are measuring pain through midterms and the economy, then the level of pain Iran needs to inflict for longterm deterrent is not even close to being achieved.
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@tim_sandsquid63 Fair point. They might want to drag it out until the midterms.
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I agree. The Iranians are at risk of overreach.
They are closing to achieving all their objectives. They have survived a joint all-out aerial attack by the US and Israel. They have pushed out US forces and made US bases in the region unusable. They have demonstrated the power of the Hormuz weapon — and held the world economy at gunpoint. They have demonstrated their capability to hold all gulf and Israeli assets and cities at risk.
Has deterrence been restored? I think we’re getting close. Despite the low journalistic standards in the West, all serious people now understand that this has been a strategic defeat for the West.
Escalating from here or dragging this out may be unwise. It would only force the US to commit ground forces, which will be a quagmire for the Americans, but would be considerably more devastating for Iran.
The Iranians should try to secure what they can at the table. Security guarantees may not be forthcoming and are not something that can be extracted by Iranian threats. What they can insist on is money and arms. Sanctions relief from the US. Weapons supply from the other great powers.
This will have to enough until Iran can achieve breakout, which they must now do at forced-pace and in total secrecy (see @NicoleGrajewski FA article on this point).
The enrichment file may be the sticking point. It is really hard to see how Iran can now allow any kind of serious inspection regime. They must rush to get the bomb. And this is an important reason beyond the Hormuz weapon that the war will continue.
The culminating point is hard to identify. But a good case can be made that this is it. If Trump is willing to eat this defeat then they should let him. Even if they agree to inspections, they can run rings around the inspectors or kick them out later.
Najam Ali@NajamAli2020
Many disagree with my view that Iran should now show restraint. They want escalation. They want a decisive finish. History warns against this instinct. In 1982, Iran had pushed Iraq back and held a clear advantage. That was the moment to consolidate. Instead, it chose total victory. The result? The world aligned against it. Years of attrition. Hundreds of thousands dead. And in the end, a forced compromise. That is the cost of overreach. Today, Iran again holds leverage: this time through the Strait of Hormuz. It has the ability to impose real economic pain. But leverage is not an invitation to exhaust it. It is a tool to negotiate from strength. Right now, the world is not aligned with the U.S. But if Iran pushes too far, if global economic pain becomes intolerable, that alignment can change very quickly. And when it does, the balance shifts. The lesson is simple: Victory is not in total domination. It is in knowing when to stop. This is the moment for strategic restraint and smart negotiation from a position of strength.
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@NorthstarCharts @hajiyev_rashad No, this is deeper and less correlated with equities.
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This is not a natural response of gold to global geopolitical tension...
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@merlinscapital US can’t supply the world with oil. Shale has effectively plateaued and likely going into decline.
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The Iran war at its current escalation is actually a net positive for the US economy
We will be the king of oil once again. Wealth can be restored to the US.
Some short term pains, but keep the strait closed.
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@Richard_Casey @SantiagoAuFund It’s not a reserve currency. China doesn’t want fx for reserves which will overvalue CNY.
That’s why they offer SGE for gold exchange, as they hope that trade partners dump CNy instantly for gold.
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If RMB was a real reserve currency, Iran would be willing to hold RMB balances rather than immediately exchange it for gold, which China buys with dollars. Reason these transactions are done in secret at a discount at extra cost is because China doesnt want @SantiagoAuFund 1/2
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@Carpedi02446887 @Amelius11843670 I’m seeing lower prices for silver bars at apmex and sdbullion.
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IRGC-affiliated Iranian media say there were no discussions with Trump, and say he backed down out of fear of an Iranian retaliation.
That’s likely part of the off ramp narrative.
I did forecast a Hollywood movie ending for Trump to take home so we may have a final act and market manipulation.
Nothing stops this train though.
Simon Dixon@SimonDixonTwitt
Everybody told me I don’t understand this war. Many told me it was WW3 & a nuclear bomb will be fired. I said the market disagrees and the outcome has already been agreed. Trump now says the US and Iran “have had very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution” of the Iran War. Trump has ordered the Department of War to postpone “any and all strikes” against Iranian power plants. Let’s see what comes next.
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@hottrend2000 @DavidLe76335983 For sure. Though the volatility will be a lot less when pricing goes to physical only at the SGE.
Technically speaking, any neutral reserve asset can be attacked like gold.
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@KQ992017 @DavidLe76335983 Agree. I recall reading one concern the BRICS had with gold settlement was volatility and it was decided to use a moving average price.
Now we are experiencing major volatility. Can't help but think it is a related attack.
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How ironic🤣
Market expects inflation
What perform best in a high inflation period? #Gold
Yet investors are dumping gold 🤭
🤠Rabbi Weimar Silver Baron 🤠@BankerWeimar
#Gold is plunging on fears inflation could get out of control. If global fiat currencies fail it’s widely anticipated that gold will be worthless
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@Dioclet54046121 And comex will die as a commodity pricing mechanism. Anyone who lets comex touch their metals after this is an idiot.
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With a #silver force majeure, the price of physical metal will skyrocket, but futures will be cash settled at a low price, and derivatives of futures' contracts will be cancelled worthless.
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@hottrend2000 @DavidLe76335983 Problem is the USD price of gold is irrelevant in this financial theatre of the war. The sovereigns and central banks involved don't hold gold as it relates to the paper price.
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@DavidLe76335983 If you consider the Iran war as actually a war against the petrodollar and China (BRICS) then gold must also be taken down.
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@DavidLe76335983 The narrative that GCC are massively selling gold to fund operations just isn't convincing here. Not with the way SPX is moving.
Banks are trying to shake out weak hands to get physical.
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@Fongern_FX Paper gold is their most liquid asset. They don't actually own real gold.
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Margin calls! Institutions dump their most liquid asset: Gold.
Your "safe haven" is the ATM.
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@MBAeconomics1 @GoldSilverHQ @mothersilverape No way these guys’ reputation will remain after this whole bs.
Anyone who lets comex touch their metal after this force majeure deserves to get wrecked.
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@GoldSilverHQ @mothersilverape Is that why the price is crashing?
Wait a minute….
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China has vast numbers of drones & missiles, their salvo would literally block out the Sun.
Onye Nkuzi@cchukudebelu
If a war between Iran and the US looks like this, then a war between the US and China, would be unimaginable.
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@marley41421 @BankerWeimar @WatcherGuru @Kitler512 Exactly. Only bonds and tech stocks did well in Weimar.
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JUST IN: Gold crashes under $4,350
Over $1 trillion wiped out from its market cap in three hours.
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