Abigail Fisher

From the business #leaders summit @ Davos: "We live in a world today where our employees want to know us as humans," Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said. "Our employees really care about culture. They care about your purpose." via @YahooFinance @ChuckRobbins #socialceo

We have to protect our democracy at the ballot box.

No woman should be denied care, made to wait until she’s near death, or forced to flee her home state just to receive the health care she needs. Yet, this is exactly what is happening in states across the country since Donald Trump overturned Roe v. Wade. The stakes could not be higher and the contrast could not be clearer.

@StephenKing from your lips...😍

@JoeBiden 💯!

This is what putting your country before your party looks like. I’m grateful for your endorsement, Adam.

@SawyerMerritt @Tesla if only more govt departments would follow suit! set an example for us all.

NEWS: Bargersville’s fleet of 13 @Tesla police cars saves taxpayers about $80,000 a year in fuel costs compared to gas-powered police vehicles. The town is saving enough on fuel to pay for two additional officers. "We just traded our first car in this year and we got $17,500 for a 2019 Tesla, compared to the $5k we get for our gas-powered police vehicles.”

I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more supply available from $TSM. Given the stock is currently trading 15% below its 5 year average forward PE but expectations are EXTREMELY high, I would expect a small positive reaction from the stock. AI landscape: If I compare the surge in spending on AI today to that of the internet in its early days: 1) From the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 through Q1 of 2024 it has been roughly 5 quarters. Nvidia, the enabler of Generative AI, is expected to see its revenues increase over 4x from ~$6B (Oct qtr of 2022) to an estimated $25B for their soon to be reported Q1 (April qtr of 2024). 2) NetScape Navigator, the first mass internet web browser, was launched in December of 1994 and through Q1 of 1996 would be an equivalent 5 quarters. During this time, Cisco, the leading enabler of the internet infrastructure buildout, saw its revenues increase from $434M (Oct qtr of 1994) to $1,087M (April qtr of 1996) up 2.5x. 3) Cisco’s revenues peaked at up ~16x by the January of 2001 qtr at $6.7B compared to late 1994 and the stock increased 4000% to become the most valuable company in the world. Nvidia by comparison since the end of 2022 has seen revenues increase over 4x and their stock 533% to become the third most valuable company in the world. 4) From a valuation perspective, NVDA’s forward PE is in fact 15% below its average for the past 5 years. NVDA trades at ~35x forward twelve months PE for ~100% revenue growth in CY24. Cisco traded at a forward12 month peak PE of over 135x during the Tech Bubble for nearly 60% revenue growth so this is nowhere near a bubble for NVDA’s stock. 5) I believe that customers have been double and tripling ordering NVDA chips since the start of the AI boom but are unwilling to cancel orders as they await shipments of Nvidia’s new Blackwell chip in late 2024. While investors may anticipate an air pocket in demand before the Blackwell launch, I would expect a period of digestion in early 2025 once customers have received their initial Blackwell orders. 6) I expect increasing declines of 25-35% going forward for NVDA’s stock now that lead-times have come down from roughly one year to 3 months for their chips. As an analogy, Cisco’s stock saw declines of 26% in late 1995, 38% in 1997 and 34% in 1998 on its way to increasing ~4000% to its peak in 2000 from the end of 1994. I believe investors rightly will become more worried with Nvidia, much like they did with Cisco, if/when excess orders will get cancelled or spending will slow down now that supply is catching up with demand. 7) The spending on AI is being driven by some of the most valuable and cash flow positive companies in the world today such as $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META. This compares favorably to much of the spending during the internet buildout which was more debt fueled with a mentality of build it and they will come and a focus on “eyeballs” and not profits to some extent. In summary: I believe the AI infrastructure buildout could be as powerful for NVDA as it was during the internet infrastructure buildout for Cisco when revs increased ~16x over 5+ years and the stock rose ~4000% but prepare for larger bumps and bruises along the way. I expect to see multiple 25-35%+ drawdowns over the next 3-4 years while Nvidia’s stock ultimately goes up 3-4x from current levels along with revenues.

Tools review: The best #AI #copywriting tools currently available androidauthority.com/best-ai-copywr…

hey everyone, help me cheer on our San Francisco-based friend @YoungChef who'll be a guest chef competing in next week's #Chopped, Julia Child's Kitchen tourney!

Once again, Twitter users - who are THE value of the platform - will lose out due to Musk's mismanagement. Advertisers aren't the problem, he is #TwitterX theglobeandmail.com/world/article-…

certainly not the most popular truck model with the ladies😕 #Cybertruck WATCH: Tesla's CyberTruck Delivery Event - LIVE youtube.com/live/ddzZMUoXz… via @YouTube

It’s #GivingTuesday! Whether you’re donating your time, money, or just your attention to someone in need, be sure you give back a little today.

good morning to the sea lions of Pier39

Nothing like a #sunset over the Pacific during the winter months. Just say 😮 #sunsets

5 Principles Of Telling Great Brand Stories via @forbes forbes.com/sites/brandsto… #storytelling #brands

@sjvn @ZDNET then the only folks left on the platform will be his echo chamber and bots. the rest of us, who spent the last 15 years + building it, will finally leave. as it is, we're barely hanging on.

@StephenKing YES please, 100%!

love it or hate it #AI will influence #brandstorytelling: How Paul Hernandez Is Transforming Brands Through AI via @forbes forbes.com/sites/mikebuge…

@GMdudeinNA fantastic - CA loves Bolt ;-)!

No it won't. There will be a next gen Bolt. We said that.

The ability to explain a complex idea in a short and memorable way can get you jobs, funding, and more opportunities. hbr.org/2018/10/the-ar…

Have eclipse viewing plans Saturday morning? Clouds could be a problem around the Bay Area. A cold front may even bring a few showers to the North Bay. Best bet for better viewing is to head south and east. #cawx