Rob

@dotkrueger People used to think business cycle was every 4 years too…

"The Business Cycle is about to turn up, which is fantastic for Crypto Prices" -- Tom Lee.

@moneyordebt Of course. I’m just drawing and analogy between Moore’s law and the power law.

@Rob79049439 This is about Metcalfe’s law, not Moore’s law.

The λ = 2.07 parameter for the log-periodic bubble behavior is a clean fit for a financial series since it is quite close to 2.0 and has a small rms error for spacing of 0.45 years. It is the multiplicative ratio for discrete scale invariance timings of bubbles and indicates: 2011, 2013, 2017, 2027, 2047, 2087 as the sequence. First harmonics correspond to 2012, 2016, both had smallish bubbles then larger 2021/2 double came early, next one 2035. The 2.07 consistent from multiple methods: FFT, wavelengths, peak spacing. We must wait until H2 2027 for confirmation; falsification in 2025 or early 2026 seems highly unlikely. The climb into the next bubble peak might start in earnest in H2 2026?

Moore’s law has proven fairly predictive. The semiconductor cycle has not. People say history repeats, but when it doesn’t it “rhymes” but probably history just doesn’t actually repeat because we learn. Maybe Rene Girard has a better model of bubbles, we are all little copy cats mimetically wanting what the other guy has until war breaks out and we kill each other. 😂

Well I agree sinusoidal is not predictive, this is more about one potential fundamental mode related to overall timing. The real bubbles are spikier certainly, blow off tops. In other analysis it looked as if about 1/2 of the overall structure was reasonably well fit. Beyond that there is much more structure and noise (extrinsic events, influences). The general point is that the power law nature of Bitcoin as it ‘collides’ with and ingests different fiat capital tiers manifests discrete scale invariance.

@WayneVaughan Great analogy.🤣

This is absurd as saying you aren’t fit because athletic people are taking all the muscle.

@CeeGix @moneyordebt A powerlaw relationship isn't a vector. It can be described as a vector in log/log space, but so what? What is "Bitcoin Implied ISM Pricing"?

@moneyordebt Intrinsic power law? The powerlaw is a wide range of possibilities in a vector, this is more accurate

The business cycle is clearly not the fundamental motor shows the data and the analysis, it is the intrinsic power law nature of Bitcoin which is a very much steeper function than the changes through the business cycle, those are small in comparison, but will produce other harmonics and noise processes. It is the strong 5.3 (gold) 5.7 (USD) power law driving through new price levels / market cap levels and attracting larger swaths of capital. Don't just make an assertion, prove your case.

@moneyordebt This BTC/Au quantile chart is bar none the beat in BTC PL land…

I don’t know about their assets going to zero in fiat terms immediately but Saylor’s suggestion is the right plan. Since gold is falling against Bitcoin as (Au/BTC) ~ T^(-5) which is steeper than a triple black diamond trail. Quick estimates for a 10-year Treasury program selling $100 billion in gold each year and purchasing Bitcoin: By the end of 2035 they retain 1/3 of the current $1 trillion mark to market gold value of 8100 tons, ending up with 2600 tons left. Future value $2/3 of a trillion. And they would acquire 3.2 million Bitcoin rising in price against the $ as the 5.7 power so they end up with around $4.5 trillion of Bitcoin, a more rapidly appreciating asset. This assumes strategic purchases so that they do not pay above the power law trajectory price on average. It also assumes gold continuing to make progress against fiat. Log-log Bitcoin vs. gold chart. Good time to start since we are close to the support levels.

@moneyordebt Given that gold is the most similar to BTC of any tradfi monetary peers, BTC/Au PL analysis should be the best. BTC/Au quantile called the $80k bottom as well. BTC/Au is the gold standard for BTC analysis!!!

There never was a true four year cycle, people projected what they wanted to see, something overly simple as it turns out. They ignored the 2011 bubble since inconvenient. I was guilty as well, but: Power laws move log price in log time. It has always been a log periodic rhythm with a fundamental mode and harmonics. The 2021 double bubble was misleading; 2025 was not in the cards. If you have a power law asset (continuous scale invariance) it attracts different layers of fiat capital as it breaks into each new order of magnitude (geometric or logarithmic jumps) of market cap. That causes discrete scale invariance, new entrants drive bubbles and waves followed by crashes and troughs and return to the power law. And those help lock it in. The observed log-periodic fundamental λ is 2.07 which is very roughly the lengthening ratio for each interval. This chart was generated with BTC/Au residuals and Fourier analysis confirmed by wavelets, the BTC/$ should not be very different since power law indices are close but some future work TBD to check. 2027.4 is indicated for next fundamental mode bubble vs. gold

@A5T3R0lD Happy thanksgiving to the kind folks at Asteroid Media.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🦃 FROM YOUR FRIENDS AT ASTEROID MEDIA ™ 🍂

@dotkrueger HIO has to be inverse Moore’s Law for that equation to work!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣

People seem to be getting stupider at the same speed that Machines are getting smarter. The product is a constant. "Krueger's Law".

@TheRealPlanC BTC/Au quantile model has $80k around 10% quantile. Given that gold is closer to BTC than $, very hard to ignore…

Bitcoin: Final bottom will be?

@A5T3R0lD Haha. Exactly!

HOLY FUCKING SHIT !!!! ABOUT TO BREAK $88,000 AND THEN GAP UP ATO $90,000 AFTER THE SHORTS GET SMOKED !!!! LET ME CALL MY CONNECT REALLY QUICK AND ASK HIM TO DO A QUICK 1 BILLION DOLLAR FAT FIGURE BUY TO PUSH US OVER THE 88K HUMP 🤙

@tomyoungjr @scottmelker So stupid. What is it about halving that could possible cause decline in demand for BTC?

@scottmelker VanEck CEO is a lawyer.

UPDATE: VANECK CEO SAYS $BTC FOUR-YEAR CYCLE POINTS TO A POTENTIALLY WEAK 2026 AND INVESTORS ARE POSITIONING EARLY

“Bitcoin 4-year cycle” = astrology Halving = less new BTC Less new BTC ≠ price must go down Change my mind.

@dotkrueger The bear market is over!!

if we hit 100K by some miracle in the next 2 days, pizza is on me if you are in LA. If not, we will celebrate the killing of the bears after thanksgiving.

$80k isn’t just support — it’s the statistical floor. BTC/Au power law = bottom 10% quantile. Gold is the best analog. Good luck getting below it. @moneyordebt @dotkrueger

"80K was the bottom" -- Rob

I think this is probably GDP miscalculation/malcalculation. GDP calculation in practice is interesting rabbit hole. Every country does it differently (ie wrong in different ways). It’s theoretically mumbo jumbo. Basically anything using comparative GDP is unreliable. That would actually make for a fun X spaces at some point.

@bensig Haha. Love it.

Bitcoin is going to zero. 6 of them.

@dotkrueger Such a great point, Fred. Institutional investors buy their own bullshit.

Tom Lee makes a great point that Eric Balchunas agrees with. In his 30+ year experience retail investors are smarter than institutional ones. That's it. In my view, very true. When I was on Wall Street Salomon and Goldman had a monopoly on smart people. It was Stanford and Harvard. Everybody else was community college level. But the real people who cleaned up were later. Just random MSFT investors. And AAPL investors. and GOOG investors. and TSLA investors. Patience and Long Term beats "institutional mumbo jumbo". Most of these "analysts" have no idea what the terms they are spouting even mean. They couldn't write out the mathematical definition of "standard deviation" if their lives depended on it. Let alone sharpe ratio. Most of these "suits" are the first to panic sell, sadly. None of them really understand tech. Bitcoin is outside of their wheelhouse.