Rob

New month, new walkthrough of the dashboard. We’ve packed so much more into it lately that I honestly don’t use anything else for my day-to-day analysis. From liquidity models like the GLI and CLI, to liquidation maps, alt league, risk intel, treasury trackers and the letters page, everything you need to stay ahead is in one place. It’s structured to cover both the serious macro side of your portfolio and the fun stuff like memes and alts, so you’re never flying blind. All of this costs less than a meal out, which is mad when you think about the edge it gives you. We’re just getting started. Each month will bring even more tools, so I’ll be doing walkthroughs regularly. Get on the dashboard and give yourself the structure and clarity most investors are missing. TRW and Real Vision members, DM me for your discount codes.

Amazing call from the man himself @Sykodelic_ here. $TAO was added to the Alt league a few days ago and was instantly pushed to the no.1 spot. Kinda regret putting $AKT in the mix for the @RealVision competition now. Should have spoke to Syk sooner 😂 Track it in the Alt league on the dashboard. Watch the for next clean entry signal. rjalpha.app/en/alt-league 1 day and 3 day free trial options up and available.

@BlairPring81213 Hey mate. If you're you on the dashboard you can view the whole thesis in the most recent market analysis letter.

@Rob_Jones19 Why late April/May?

Kicking on from this post yesterday. It goes without saying that if we have a resolution to the conflict and an agreement to the Clarity act, $BTC is likely to shoot up higher. It's a coiled spring right now. The proof of that is how it reacted on yesterday's fake news, its pretty undeniable that's what will happen. But, it won't be the start of the next consistent move higher. For that, we wait until late April/May in my opinion. It will be sharp but short lived depending on timings. rjalpha.app/en

We have made a really nice and simple edit to the leverage risk gauges, adding a little more detail with price overlay so you can see for yourself exactly when in the past it's move risk on/neutral/risk off. Hopefully gives a little more insight into how it works. It's a very simple omega ratio based formula that is designed to move quickly. The idea is to get you into areas where there's a more probable chance of a safe trend to the upside, and snaps you out quickly when risk to the downside creeps in. The whole system is designed for absolutely no more than 2x leverage, for your own safety! Do not play with leverage until you fully understand it and when you do, be sure to have a system designed to get you in and out quickly. rjalpha.app/en/risk-intel

Someone on the @realvision platform just asked a really important question that I think is worth posting about. I was asked how debt increasing during a war actually creates liquidity. It's something I go deep on within the dashboard but I know most people are lazy and don't read the important letters. I can't blame you, it's graft. The mechanism is fairly simple and I'm going to keep it as that. Simple... Wars cost great sums of money. Debt increases at a rapid pace, one you never see during times of peace. Unless there's a pandemic 😅. To fund that war, the Treasury issues debt, currently in the form of Bills. Buyers pay cash for those Bills and that cash flows into the TGA. At some point the TGA needs to be spent down, to pay contracts, obligations, suppliers. When it does, those funds move from the TGA into commercial banks. Once in the commercial banks, two things happen. Firstly, the banks now have more capacity to lend (the transmission tracker on the dashboard tracks this). Secondly, the newly issued Treasuries become collateral that gets rehypothecated multiple times through the system for credit creation. The debt itself becomes the liquidity. Government takes on debt, debt gets serviced, serviced debt gets rehypothecated using collateral multiplier effects. That's liquidity creation. It's pretty much that simple and this is why we track auctions, auction stress, transmissions, credit liquidity and global liquidity through the dashboard. We watch the entire framework. You can too now you know why we track it all. rjalpha.app/en/analysis

@capseyeth They were already denied by Iran 😂. It's mental.... It's almost like he just expected everyone to roll over.

I think Trump wants to de escalate but to save face - my feeling is that he's done this on his own, and I'm not even sure how substantive these talks are and whether they even took place. I don't think I believe it, and now the Iranians know Trumps pain points i.e. the markets. And there's still a tonne of questions: - Are the Israelis onboard with this? - Do more strikes happen, just not on energy infrastructure? - Do the Iranians confirm these talks? - The Iranians now know where and how to pressure Trump. - Is this Trump just buying more time? I'm not a buyer of this rally in risk, and if anything, see it as a Shorting opportunity. I don't think I'm a believer here.

Market probability chart is telling the tough story right now. Looking pretty grim quite frankly. Market stress raised to the high levels again is a big issue. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the markets HATE stress. It destroys risk appetite. The second it dipped and we had a bit of liquidity, we had a nice little trend come into the markets. Liquidity has eased, stress has crept back in - not ideal. QE sitting elevated, with the economy plus debt levels where they are, thats no surprise. Rate hikes have taken over rate cuts as a more probable outcome now, which on the surface seems contradictory alongside high QE probability. Until you factor in the war. Truflation is now running super hot. This isn't everyday goods driving inflation higher, it's the oil surge.. Recession probability hovering around where it's been the last few months, still slightly elevated. Not screaming yet but it reinforces the QE argument. The economy needs a push before it stalls out. The longer stress stays elevated and liquidity stays parked, the harder it becomes to avoid that outcome. All in all, it looks like a rocky few weeks ahead. I've already flagged that I'm expecting a tough April from the data we have right now and nothing here changes that view, if anything cements it. Without fresh liquidity entering the system, I'm starting to warm up to the idea that 60k is a real possibility. The difference is I'm getting there from the data, not from lines on a chart😂. Maybe smart money rotating into $BTC will be enough to hold prices here and we get lucky and just range. But I wouldn't be taking any unnecessary risks at this stage. I'm still heavily bullish this year, heavily. But the weeks ahead we need a little help from the FED. And Trump to stop being himself so we can catch a break. Follow it all on the dashboard. Lets hope to see some more positive data this week. rjalpha.app/en/analysis

Wagyu has reached $200M in total swap volume. Thank you to everyone who swapped with us and has been part of the journey.

@chartzfukup Anytime brother.

@Rob_Jones19 Thank you Rob great post 👍

My recent market analysis spoke about late April-early May as being potentially the next meaningful boost to liquidity spot we are going to get but it's shaping up to be one of the most confluence heavy windows I've tracked in while. Starting with the war playbook and how it affects liquidity. In almost every major conflict, liquidity follows the exact same pattern. Heavy uptick within the first week, consolidation-slight downside for the 30 days following and then the real sustained move builds from day 60 to 90 as the fiscal spending actually kicks in and moves through the markets. The war started late Feb, we saw the uptick, we are seeing the consolidation pattern now, I'm expecting the rest to follow late April/early May. After this we have the TGA. Now, I HATE seasonality but when it comes to something as yearly as tax season, well... I will sit in my box for a bit. The Treasury is sitting on $853B in cash, the 93rd percentile of all history. April we should see this move up slightly before then being released in May through to June. Refunds go out and spending accelerates. Then the transmission tracker hits complete equilibrium at this same point in May. That's when the banking system can officially lend 1:1 again, the CLI starts moving higher alongside the GLI, and the collateral move becomes effective. On top of all of this. We have had an incredibly clean Auction output this month. Auction stress is something people still aren't watching closely enough but it's the single biggest lead indicator to both the GLI and the CLI leading both by around 30 days... I have told you all many times, the whole dashboard is interconnected. When you have multiple stressed auctions, GLI gain over the following 30 days drops to +877. When they're clean, it's +2,837. Nearly one third of the liquidity impact. This is the largest single month of Treasury refinancing ever recorded. The fact that only one auction showed stress out of that entire slate is frankly exceptional. We also saw that stress on the 16th of March. The following days, $BTC struggled. Partly coincidental, partly not. War fiscal flows. Seasonal TGA drawdown. Transmission hitting equilibrium. Record refinancing absorbed with minimal stress. GLI and CLI converging. Five independent signals, one window. These are the reasons that I'm looking towards May. This is why I'm so god damn bullish. Liquidity has to come in heavy this year to keep everything running. When liquidity grows, asset prices follow. Always. The only way I see this coming forward would be if the FED steps in in April. Which is a possibility. Track it all, on the platform. rjalpha.app/en/analysis

Added a few new relevant tokens to the Alt league today. One being a members picks $DRV which has been doing great. Our no.1 Alt league pick $AKT still on absolute fire. Entered pretty late but its still helping me climb the leader board on the @RealVision comp. Slowly grinding higher. I got in 3 days late and its bumped me to 14th currently. Unlikely to get anywhere near no.1 spot but it is a trade I actually took and with how the crypto markets been the last few days, I'll take 17%. Some proper feisty trades on there, a few 400%+ trades in just a week. Jump over to the dashboard, keep an eye on whats moving and whats not in the crypto space. rjalpha.app/en/alt-league

Anyone????

Massive promotion on the dashboard. You can now sign up for a full 1 day free trial without any card details, no auto sub, no email address, no details at all. The 3 day will still be available but we are giving you complete access for 24 hours, without any chance of a charge to ensure you're confident to check it out. If you're already on the dashboard, please share with you friends. If you're in the crypto space and you want to follow all the macro that's important. Any of our strategy ideas or the Alt League. You can see it all completely free now. Head to rjalpha.app/en The free trial will be on your account page. You can make an account with just a username and a pw. Any questions, just dm me and I'm more than happy to help. Please share ✌🏻

BTC still looks materially discounted relative to the broader macro backdrop. The RJ Alpha fair value model is currently sitting around $110.8k versus spot near $70.5k. The gold-based BTC fair value model is also still projecting materially above spot, around $104.7k. On top of that, the broader liquidity backdrop continues to look more supportive than current price action suggests. None of this means BTC has to teleport higher tomorrow. Price can overshoot and undershoot fair value for long periods. But when liquidity is improving, fair value models remain well above spot, sentiment is washed out, retail has been shaken out, and liquidation stress has already done a lot of the dirty work, the setup starts to look less like structural failure and more like a market trading below where the macro structure suggests it should be. This is why standalone charts are never enough. Liquidity, valuation, sentiment, and positioning all need to be read together. Credits: Fair value models: RJ Alpha / RJ Alpha Dash Liquidity proxy context: @42macro @DariusDale42 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoMarkets #Macro #Liquidity #FairValue #MarketStructure #Trading

@HenrikZeberg Half of M2 isn't even liquidity positive 😂