Dr Roberto J. Mera
4.7K posts

Dr Roberto J. Mera
@RobertoJMera
Assistant Teaching Professor and Coordinator for the Climate Change and Society MS at NCSU. Oyster farmer. All views are my own. Retweets not endorsements.🌎🌏







Updated image to include Andrew and two others. I inadvertendly left out A and B's when I added the database in. Doesn't change the message BUT I am sorry about that. Very annoyed at myself!


2X increase in the most extreme hurrucanes! Yesterday’s post connecting Melissa’s extra intensity to warmer ocean temperatures ruffled some feathers. Some complained that “one storm” doesn’t prove climate change. That’s true. So I dug deeper. Looking at every Cat 4 & 5 in the Atlantic since 1980 (reliable records/ good data gathering) I broke the record into 2 equal parts. 1980-2002 and 2003-2025 What I found surprised even me. The most recent period has more than double the number of most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic!! That’s not coincidence. Humans have become a force of nature. Through greenhouse warming and changes in aerosols (pollution) the oceans have warmed dramatically. For instance, the water under #Melissa was about 4 degrees F hotter than it would have been ~100 years ago. That’s huge! That extra heat powers a higher horse power engine with heavier wind & rain. Is there a natural oscillation (AMO)component too? Perhaps, but IMO it’s tenuous. In post analysis it’s very possible Melissa will be upgraded to the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever given lots of unprecedented data collected just before landfall. With that said, personally I post this info simply because I find it interesting the degree to which we have changed the trajectory of our climate. But - to be clear - I don’t ask that you do anything about it. The way you use this info and take action - or not take action - is not my business. To each his/ her own. Personally I want to be sure I’m not denying reality by ignoring the symptoms. And I want to be sure I’m communicating the science to the public, as my position requires. What you do with the info is your business.



























