Robertus

Reached all the way to $70,000 last night. Basically the entire bottom of the range I always expected would near the end of the current downturn ($70-74k). While we are HEAVILY due for some relief any moment now, it's still wild to see so much weakness. Still so much sell pressure after what we have already had. If I didn't know any better I would say it always looks and feels like a bearm... Well likely because it is and we've been in one. The only difference here is that I believe this one will be shorter and less severe (aka more like 2019 vs 2018/2022). I know most groups are either extremely persistent in calling this still a bull market and the other group in calling this a bear market. I don't really like to put things in terms of the bulls vs the bear. For me we're somewhere in between. A quicker bearmarket (the current downturn) but that won't last 2 years either. Yet I always believe the markets still require study on a month by month base. Not necessarily each day but still further action on what it's telling us. My target has always been 70-74k in this downturn and yes we'll find a local bottom here soon. BUT I'm not arrogant either to say we couldn't go lower. Or we really HAVE TO. In the markets there is no we can't and we won't. I still don't like the current weakness. Meaning my thesis on a local bottom bounce is still here. But without significant signs of strength on the next bounce there's no guarantee we'll hold here. The markets owns us nothing. Yet I'm still hopeful for the market. I know these times are tough and full of dispair but these phases are also a natural part of the market. As there are times we seem like we go endlessly down today. So will there be times it seems we go endlessly up (at least for Bitcoin. Alts need a more nuanced take and inspection) We take the market how it comes. Both good and bad.

We should be close to a local bottom and I don't say this often. The only other time I said this during this entire downtrend was in November. "Not necessarily the lowest bottom but a local one at least" This time however I do think we're getting closer to a true bottom. Nothing is off the table however. I am no predictor. I am a confirmer. Bottoms take time to form and unlike what most people think, they don't V-shape recover and go to infinity and beyond in a matter of days. Many will make you believe you need to buy buy buy. Very quickly because you'll be to late tomorrow. I don't and I believe many have started to regret doing that. A true new uptrend won't end after 10%. Don't worry. For now we'll already make a local bottom soon. $74k is another huge demand like $80k was in November. We'll make a local bottom soon regardless whether the market remains bearish or turns bullish again. In both scenarios. The difference is that one of them will be a relief wave and the other the start of an uptrending one. Now ideally for me personally I would like to see the start of some sort of Wyckoff accumulation pattern here. If you're not familiar with those it looks like sideways price with small fake drops in between. But mostly back and forth in a range on a strong higher time frame level. Likely to create plenty of bounces here for now already and move back within the $80k range back and forth soon. When the trend is down I don't like to predict to much and call things to early. But at the very least we'll already locally bounce here very soon.

The majority of the biggest altseasons all happend while Bitcoin was surging. All of them still had a final leg when it topped yes. But anyone that has been here for the ENTIRETY of 2017 knows it was altseason almost the entire year long. While Bitcoin was also surging. Not just December-January. And If you weren't there? The data and charts I've shared below 100% proves this. Same with 2021. The majority of altseason happened in the first half of 2021. Also when Bitcoin was surging and not just after. Now despite me not relying on comparisons at all times as I've repeatedly said they aren't absolute. Due to the correlation with Bitcoin and alts that till this day has been proven to still exist (today's data, not a comparison) it's probably quite accurate to say that the conclusion is: For any altseason to happen we still need a surging Bitcoin again. Not a topped or declining one. This confirms why alts have still been so weak last few weeks and no significant bounce across the board. Bitcoin needs a sustained and confirmed bullish break again.