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Aidvisor

@RoboAdvisor

Musings, observations, and the occasional joke. Who's doing what in automated advice and investing...RTR

United States Katılım Şubat 2014
583 Takip Edilen791 Takipçiler
Aidvisor
Aidvisor@RoboAdvisor·
@grok @abcampbell @chamath What are the current credit ratings by the top rating agencies for these ten municipalities and are any under review?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Based on Jan 2026 data, the 10 best bets for CDS/spread widening (ranked by mismatch of poor fundamentals to tight pricing) with approx. 10-yr muni yields: 1. Denver: 2.80% 2. Portland, OR: 2.90% 3. Honolulu: 2.90% 4. Milwaukee: 2.90% 5. Baltimore: 2.90% 6. NYC: 2.90% 7. Philadelphia: 3.10% 8. Miami: 3.10% 9. New Orleans: 3.20% 10. Chicago: 3.50% CDS data limited; yields from market benchmarks.
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath·
I think this is the most asymmetric upside bet in the market now. Position yourself smartly and you can make 10-1000x with relative ease. How? Even if politicians try to bury the fraud, the bond market can’t ignore it. Their math will show that even if the fraud is only 10% of total state and municipal budgets, it’s already way too much and should go to paying back debt holders. Right now spreads don’t reflect this and are too tight - ie look at California Credit Default Swaps - it doesn’t reflect any fraud, budget shortfalls or the billionaire exodus. There is little chance these spreads don’t move as the bond market comes back to work and processes the events of the last few days. Now, if instead of 10% fraud, they believe that fraud is 20-30% of all tax dollars, the cost of borrowing will escalate sharply until federal, state and local governments are forced to act. This is when the CDS trade becomes the most asymmetric profit opportunity of our lifetime. Buy the CDS -> wait for politicians to try and bury it -> ie in California -> see the bond market increase borrowing costs -> see the CDS blow out -> asymmetric bet pays off. The takeaway here is that the bond market lives in an alternative and adjacent universe from the politicians and media. The latter group can try to bury an issue but when the former group is asked to fund it, a reckoning happens and the former group always wins.
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy

What if … What if the real fiscal revolution isn’t higher taxes or austerity, but rooting out fraud? Imagine if the bond vigilantes finally woke up to the fact that reducing government fraud and waste could shrink the deficit faster than any rate hike or spending cap. The real shocker might be just how much of Washington’s spending is pure noise, and how putting the entire government budget on a transparent blockchain could fix it overnight. What would the doomsday crowd on Wall Street say then, when the deficit problem isn’t “unsolvable,” just unaccountable?

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Mark Macomber
Mark Macomber@MAMacomber·
Robo-advisor Betterment raises $70 million in financing led by Kinnevik at a reported valuation of $800 million. finte.ch/2vSXuA8
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Aidvisor
Aidvisor@RoboAdvisor·
MT:As the 'finance Snapchat,' Stash raises $40 million more of VC funding as it onboards at a rate of 1,000 per day riabiz.com/a/2017/7/17/as…
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