Rob Wood

@Amies2E The key is that they are reacting more to spot inflation now than before Covid, which makes controlling inflation harder. The more adaptive expectations become the bigger and more persistent inflation cycles will be.

@Robwoodecon Except inflation expectation are totally non predictive and just reflect today's inflation...And therefore should be in the bin with regard to monetary policy decisions.

UK inflation expectations are modestly deanchored. 5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.

The results are in... The Sunday Times UK econ forecast winner for 2025 is Pantheon's @robwoodecon , taking the prize for the second time. If you're managing UK assets and not reading Rob, you are seriously missing out.

@asentance @billwells_1 @dsmitheconomics @PantheonMacro @ONS @jagjit_chadha @EconSteveM @Frencheconomics We agree. We are forecasting above consensus sticky inflation and for the Chancellor’s borrowing forecasts to be missed.

@billwells_1 @dsmitheconomics @Robwoodecon @PantheonMacro @ONS @jagjit_chadha @EconSteveM @Frencheconomics Also optimism about public finances is endemic too. Very rarely are borrowing forecasts undershot but very often exceeded. I’ll have more to say on this shortly!

Good to see @dsmitheconomics reinstating his review of forecasts and congratulations to @Robwoodecon & @PantheonMacro for coming top of the league table for last year. Forecasts were too optimistic on inflation and public finances last year and same likely to be true for 2026.

Delighted to have topped @dsmitheconomics forecasting league table for 2025. Our key call was much higher inflation than consensus expected.

@asentance @dsmitheconomics @PantheonMacro Thanks Andrew!

In his response @Robwoodecon emphasises the importance of the risks from US tariffs, pressure on the Fed and how all this will play out for UK fiscal policy.

At our event earlier today, @Robwoodecon discussed how political pressures meant that any fiscal windfall from lower US policy rates would likely lead to more spending by the Chancellor.

New event coming 🔜 🗓️Next Tuesday at 5.30pm⏰ Rebuilding National #Statistics A debate to generate constructive ideas on how the #ONS can further improve its systems - With @The_IoD's Anna Leach, @ESCoEorg's @rebeccasriley, @PantheonMacro's @Robwoodecon, and James Benford from the ONS - Chaired by @PhilAldrick 👇 hubs.la/Q03XGpsW0

@TiffanyLon18702 @PantheonMacro Front running was clear q1 vs q2. Smoothing over 1h of year should control for most of it

"H1 growth well-balanced, if we smooth through front-running" @Robwoodecon buff.ly/Y86syiV #PantheonMacro

@Martyn_Lockhart Inflation only gets rid of debt if its unanticipated. If its anticipated - and driving up wages - inflation is a distortion that worsens economic efficiency.

Is inflation bad when everyone is getting on average a 5% pay rise each year in the UK? In the last two years pay rises for me have canceled out my monthly mortgage payment. Inflation gets rid of debt.

@jhawksworth5 The statistically most reliable part of the GfK for forecasting consumer spending is major purchase intentions, which continues to gradually improve and points to stronger spending than the headline.

@Robwoodecon Generally the useful data from such surveys relates to people’s confidence about their own financial circumstances rather than their confidence about the economy as a whole. I wasn’t clear from your chart which you were showing.

UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.

You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year balance reached the strongest in 14 months in July.

UK payrolls are NICS-driven rather than weak demand. Sectors with many part-time—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employed workers—can cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerate job falls.

@andrewishart Maybe, quite possible. But still spending nonetheless.

@Robwoodecon Very striking. Maybe those born before 1975 see the echoes of that decade: supply shocks, fiscal profligacy, and a government with big-state instincts.

Some media reporting that the Philippines will "pay a 19% tariff". No, they won't. American purchasers of goods from the Philippines will pay the 19% tariffs. The burden falls on the buyers, not the sellers. Thank you for your attention blah blah blah

"Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation" @Robwoodecon buff.ly/T7M61iW #PantheonMacro

Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet. Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.