Patrick Bet-David@patrickbetdavid
AOC will be the 2028 Democrats presidential nominee.
I’ve been saying this for 2 years.
Gavin Newsom’s favorability among likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters has fallen from 58% to 38% in just nine months, while his ballot support has dropped from 15% to 8%.
Meanwhile, AOC now holds a +55 net favorability compared to Newsom’s +12.
The progressive wing is consolidating behind AOC.
Don’t forget that Bernie beat Hillary in 2016 but the Dens pushed Bernie out.
That won’t work with AOC.
Both Democrats and Republicans have a problem but they’re different problems.
Democrats’ problem: They don’t know how to handle the DSA.
They’re:
• Younger
• More energized
• Louder
• Better at simple messaging
Their message is easy to understand:
1. Rich people are the problem.
2. Tax the rich.
3. A wealth tax will fix inequality.
4. Government can solve your affordability crisis.
5. The system isn’t fair.
Newsom made the mistake of aligning himself with democratic socialists, but it backfired.
He’s undeniably talented, but many voters struggle to identify what he truly stands for. Too often, it feels like he’ll change positions if it improves his chances of becoming president.
Republicans problem:
Affordability
Affordability
Affordability
They need credible, easy to understand solutions to the affordability crisis.
Wall Street is not Main Street.
Don’t let the stock market convince you that most Americans are doing well.
80% of Americans don’t care how great NVIDIA, Anthropic, SpaceX and Palantir stock are doing.
Housing affordability, rising costs, and economic opportunity are defining issues.
People are delaying buying homes, getting married, and starting families because they simply can’t afford it.
Socialism has a miserable history of failure, but telling people that alone isn’t enough. Many who feel they have little to lose will still be willing to give it a chance.
Simply attacking socialism won’t win the argument.
Offering a better solution and communicating it more effectively might.
Whoever presents a real solution with a simple, compelling message will have a major advantage in the post Trump era.
The political battles ahead are going to get 10x nastier than what we’ve seen so far.
The biggest elephant in the room is leaving.
It’s about to get nasty.