TheRogueTrader

@michaeljburry @aakashgupta @michaeljburry Don't waste your time trying to change your critics' minds. Enjoy your winning$ whilst thinking of the squalor they live in. I worked for years with one of the "Market Wizards" from the 1st book. His path was the same. Lots of small losses and a few massive wins.

Well, I have called just about everything significant that has happened the last 26 years. It's hard to say I've never had the timing right. I was short Amazon at the top in 2000. I went way long small cap value in late 2000. I bought AAPL in 1998 and then again in 2002. In 2003, I got into Korea stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into China stocks before a big run. In 2004, I got into oil before a big run. I bought gold in 2005 and still 20 years later... In summer 2005, I figured I was buying 5 years swaps on something would print within 2, and it did. In 2008, October, I told my investors it was time to buy. More stocks bottomed then than in March 2009. In 2009, I invested in Almonds/Water, it worked ok. In 2013, I moved to buy Bitcoin after meeting with a friend at Lightspeed. I should have. Slept on it and did not. In 2015, I bought NVDA. The CFO knows. In 2018, I started pounding the table on Japan and opened a Japan fund, which I had to close for COVID. In late 2019, I warned indexing and passive investing would make for very corrlated severe drawdowns in the market, and COVID hit 6 months later, we got the most correlatedl, sharp decline in modern history. Early 2020, I entered 2020 very short. Which worked. During early COVID I loaded up on stocks and had nearly a 100% year for the fund. In 2020, I called lockdowns would be disastrous for women and children, and went on Twitter to say it. IN 2020, I got GME to buy back 1/3 of its stock and change its board. Did ok. July 2021, I gave Barron's an interview to warn on specific meme stocks at the top, and they crashed through Dec 2023. 2021, I warned about very high inflation from the policies that were being undertaken. 2023, I warned people to sell because I saw the banking crisis coming. I told them all was clear at the bottom in March as I could see it wouldn't be contagious. 2020s, I shorted Tesla, but these were trades, and it was volatile. I did not lose money overall shorting Tesla. Had some really big quick wins. Plus Tesla is only worth about $120. I am not perfect, I did not hold AAPL or NVDA long enough, in 2025 we were up almost 100% again by Liberation Day, and I lost most of the gain (still up about double digits for the year at closing) but I would put the calls I've made over these decades up against anyone. I would add visual proof for all this, but it is too much for this medium.

Burry is mass-publishing the accounting case for his put options on Nvidia and Palantir while the rest of the market is still debating whether the capex cycle has legs. The math he’s referencing is specific. The Big Four hyperscalers just guided $650-700 billion in combined 2026 capex, a 60%+ increase from the $381 billion they spent in 2025. Amazon alone committed $200 billion, so far above the $146 billion consensus that the stock lost $450 billion in market cap over nine straight sessions. Burry’s core thesis is the depreciation trick. Nvidia’s GPU architecture runs on a 3-year cycle, with each generation delivering 2-3x more compute per watt. The H100s shipping today are economically obsolete by 2027. But the hyperscalers are depreciating them over 5-6 years. Burry estimates this gap understates depreciation by $176 billion between 2026 and 2028, inflating reported operating income by 20%+ at companies like Oracle and Meta. That’s the “accounting tricks” he’s referencing in the tweet. He did the math. The cash flow picture backs him up. Amazon is projected to go negative FCF in 2026, somewhere between -$17 billion (Morgan Stanley) and -$28 billion (BofA). Alphabet’s free cash flow is expected to collapse 90%, from $73.3 billion to $8.2 billion. The Big Five raised $108 billion in bonds in 2025 alone, more than 3x the average of the prior nine years. JP Morgan projects $1.5 trillion in tech debt issuance ahead. They’re repackaging data center debt as asset-backed securities, $13.3 billion this year, a structure with a history that includes Enron and 2008. The depreciation cliff is the part the market hasn’t priced. The five hyperscalers plan to add $2 trillion in AI-related assets by 2030. At 20% annual depreciation, that’s $400 billion per year, which exceeds their combined 2025 profits. And AI services currently generate roughly $25 billion in direct revenue against $650 billion in infrastructure spend. Four cents per dollar invested. But here’s where you have to be careful with Burry. He shorted Tesla at $180. It went to $1,200. He called the housing crisis two years early and nearly went bankrupt waiting for the trade to work. He bought puts on Nvidia and Palantir, capped-downside bets, because even he knows his timing is unreliable. The pattern with Burry is always the same: the structural analysis is correct, the timing is wrong, and the market can stay irrational long enough to wipe out the trade before it pays. He sees the depreciation cliff. He sees the accounting inflation. He sees the debt structures. All of that is real. The question is whether AI revenue scales fast enough to fill the gap before the write-downs hit. AWS alone runs at $142 billion annualized, growing 24%, with a $244 billion backlog. Google Cloud’s backlog surged 55% to $240 billion. These companies are monetizing capacity as fast as they install it. Burry is building the bear case in public so the crowd does the work for him. That’s the trade. Whether it pays depends on something Burry has never been good at: timing the moment when the music stops.

@3peaksG @michaeljburry Mr. Burry.. AKA @michaeljburry could buy you and not even know he had you.... Trading is not a game of perfection or always being correct... it's not even winning 50% of the time... It's a game of taking your losses fast and pressing your winners when the market goes your way...

@michaeljburry Bro you’ve made 1 good trade in your life. What market have you seen?

Markets have never seen a needle top.

@txavena @CheddarFlow Was wondering that too...

@CheddarFlow What does it mean?

AI conversion rates for retail have increased substantially in the past year, per Adobe

@unusual_whales Question is: is the dynamic actually the reverse? Do all these folks WANT to leave, get off the ship, and the Trump Admin is just buying time keeping them in their position for a bit before they are "Fired", even the ones on the chopping block know that's a bad look for the USA.

BREAKING: White House holding active discussions about others leaving the administration, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, per the Atlantic

@Manu_Sisti Send

Forget Tiktok Forget YouTube Forget Instagram Amazon can pay you $5,000/month to publish 100-page eBooks. And you don't even have to write them: • ChatGPT: research topic • ChatGPT: structured outlines • Claude: 1,000+ words per chapter • Ideogram + Canva: high-CTR covers Like this post Comment "Send" I'll send you a free course breaking down exactly how to start it today. For only first 500 people.

@TakeProfitLLC Boxes 3,4 &7

After all the bot talk lately, we thought we’d run a different kind of verification… a trader CAPTCHA. If you beat it, you get a chance at one of the 10 free accounts we’re putting up for grabs: 5 $50K PRO and 5 $50K Tests. Here’s how to enter… 🤖 Follow us on X or Instagram. 🤖 Tag 3 traders / friends. 🤖 Like this post. 🤖 Comment the 3 boxes you chose to beat the captcha. Entries end Wednesday, April 1st at 11:59PM EST. We’ll pick and announce the ten lucky winners on Thursday, April 2nd. Good luck!

@cobraalerts Trade

I’ve only seen this setup 1 time in 6 years 👀 I’m putting $500k in this SINGLE stock Very similar to $AMD that made millionaires •$100 → $100,000 overnight •$300 → $300,000 in a single day This is the third time. Comment “TRADE” and I’ll send it. ‼️

@Manu_Sisti Guide

The most reliable one-person business in 2026: AI Publishing. You only need: • Claude • Amazon KDP • 1-hour everyday I’m finally releasing 5+ hours of my paid eBook publishing training for free. Inside, you'll learn how to: - Find topics people already pay for - Outline chapters with ChatGPT - Write the entire book using Claude - Design covers that get clicked - Scale with Amazon KDP ads And many more. Follow + reply "Guide" and I’ll send the full tutorial for free. ⏳ Limited to the first 500 comments.

@youtubedevon @facelesscanup Masterclass

$30,000 a month. One channel. No face. No employees. Here is what the breakdown actually looks like: • AI picks the topics (searches what people already want) • A $15/video freelancer records or edits • YouTube's algorithm distributes it for free • AdSense + sponsors deposit every month This creator started with zero audience. Zero video experience. Zero special skills. He just followed the system. Month 1: $0 Month 3: $1,200 Month 6: $8,400 Month 12: $30,000 The channel runs without him now. Comment MASTERCLASS and I'll DM you the exact breakdown. Must follow so the DM reaches you.

@devoncanupspam Retire

One year from now you can Retire from your job: -Without A Pension -Without Investments -Without Being 65 How? I retired from normal jobs at 21 when I started making 20-30k/month passively I did this using Faceless Youtube thatwork on AUTOPILOT with AI and freelancers (I've done this w/ 1,000+ others). I’m hosting a live masterclass at 4pm PST/ 7 pm EST today breaking down how I do it step by step But there's a limited amount of seats so if f you want a seat BEFORE we're full Comment “Retire” and I'll send you my registration link (must be following) btw here's a screenshot from two of my active channels and I maybeee put 3-4 hours per month into each one

@Surajcoder Guide

ChatGPT + Laptop + Internet + 1 Hour a Day = $250 Daily Normally, I charge $157 for this guide. 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 $157, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲! Like, comment "Guide" and repost for absolutely FREE. (Must follow, 42 hours only)

@facelesscanup Friend

In 90 days this could be your life: - Waking up at noon everyday - Telling your boss to f*** off - Making $30k a month in ibiza jetskiing with the boys (or girls) How? By building a faceless youtube channel. These are youtube channels that work on AUTOPILOT with AI and affordable freelancers (I've done this w/ 1,000+ others). I’m hosting a 100% live masterclass this week breaking it all down a-z (NO GATEKEEPING!) Want a seat at the event? I should charge $1k for this but cause i like people on X ill give ya a free seat ;) Comment “friend” and ill send ya my friends & family only registration link (mest be following)

@TicTocTick $150 inbound

Kharg Island is where 95% of Iranian oil is shipped globally. Trump is floating idea of invading the island. Also, the admin is discussing plans for “trading” on oil futures markets. This is very very bullish— for oil.

@PeterLBrandt @PeterSchiff When a market isn't doing what it is "Supposed" to do...it is getting ready to do what it is "NOT Supposed to"...

Us old grunts who are not into all the modern TA gizmos have a saying: When a market that has every reason to rally does not rally it means that it probably can't rally Hey, @PeterSchiff, your an old grunt, you probably have heard this adage

@MmisterNobody Hi

Looks like Elon is throttling me again so I am going to conduct a test. Say hi if you see this post.

@ThrillaRilla369 Watch your wallet...she is getting ready to ask you for something expensive... LOL

Guys, I need help here. I just had an argument with my girlfriend & she told me I was right and she even apologized What do I do next?

@Mr_Derivatives YesSir!

$MU $SNDK Is it time to breakout after having consolidated a bit? Certainly has that look doesn't it?

@gsivulka Good article

@Tech_Rose1 IG

My AI Instagram girl is bringing in $30k a month Just reached 300K, most of her reels go viral Nobody notices she is AI If you want to try creating an AI influencer yourself, like, retweet, and comment “IG.” Follow me, and I will send you a guide with instructions.

@Alokkumarzz Guide

I don't understand why people don't start AI publishing. My books generate $50,000/month. If you start today, you can make at least $3,000+ by March 2026. There is no luck involved. Let me send you a free course on exactly how to do it. Just Like and Comment "GUIDE" (must follow).