Roman 🇺🇦🌻

My family left 9/9/99 - coincidentally the day of one of the Moscow apartments bombings that led to the 2nd Chechen war solidifying Putin in power. We had no idea we witnessed the last bit of light before it became darker and darker over 22 years 😢 Vitaliy’s thread is spot on👇

@TheStalwart But Twitter remembers! I was waiting for that! Surprised to still see it up this morning; then I realized Brian (and his Brain) were still asleep West Coast time 🙃 I’m encouraged by the vicious pushback against AI slop!

Brain deleted his thread

@akramsrazor Akram, please rate supreme intelligence's answer from your point of view. Grade like a student submission in business school (if you were teaching)* * I recently did an exercise like this for an area where I had domain expertise and gave it a C

Supreme intelligence on $ibm read.. Sell-side is lazy.Four things wrong with the crowding-out narrative as told: 1)Transaction Processing is not software in the sense anyone means when they say "software bear case." It's capacity-based licensing attached to Z MIPS. It is the single most hardware-coupled revenue line in enterprise software. If the box slips, the attach slips. That mechanism does not exist at MDB, SNOW, DDOG, NOW, or anything with a contractual minimum. Nobody's CICS license got eaten by an agent. 2)The story is partly self-refuting. Clients allegedly shifted spend toward servers and storage. IBM sells servers (Power) and storage (FlashSystem). IBM's server-and-storage segment fell 7%. If the entire installed base is panic-buying infrastructure and your infrastructure segment is down, you weren't crowded out — you were skipped. That's substitution of x86+GPU+memory for a Z refresh, which is a secular mainframe question, not a cyclical budget question. Very different multiple implication for IBM, and zero read-through to SaaS. 3)TP was already broken and IBM already used an excuse. In 3Q25 they said TP was down 1% year to date "as clients prioritized spend on our high value innovation z17," with the strength of the new cycle providing future monetization value and a pipeline that would drive a return to growth. So: last year the z17 cycle was the reason TP was weak and the reason it would recover. This year the reason it didn't recover is memory prices. That's two consecutive exogenous explanations for the same decaying annuity. Post-launch mainframe cycles roll ~5 quarters in. This one launched Q2'25. sec 4)Kitchen sink + no reaffirmation. Capex reprioritization plus deals failing to close plus cybersecurity distractions. Three reasons means none of them is the reason. And the tell isn't the miss — it's that they didn't reaffirm the year and pushed everything to July 22. If this were genuine slippage, you reaffirm FY and book the catch-up in Q3. They didn't. That's the actual information content, and it argues these dollars aren't coming back.

@valuedrift *take 10% (Remember, INTC “purchase” was funded by what was supposed to be a grant)

When will Trump buy 10% of $ORCL?

@valuedrift OK, you're just shitposting now

FinTwit preserving and even enhancing their triple digit YTD returns by buying every dip and selling every dip in this high vol regime:

@valuedrift GRAVITY

What was that $SPCX puke at the close?

@valuedrift Sovereigns haven’t even been able to properly battle cryptocurrency, which undermines their essential power

@valuedrift Less likely than “sovereign railroads” or “sovereign internet” or “sovereign routers/switches” or (closer to our presence predicament !) “sovereign chips” IMO

Seems like an amazing stable state oligopoly - unless $SPCX or the Chinese spoil the party?

@valuedrift You really need to drop everything and listen to that Grantham episode. He addresses the whole multi-planetary thing with elegant cynicism

@valuedrift Remember that magnitude of outcome is worth little if multiplied by infinitesimally small probability

High terminal value. $SPCX

@veronica_humble So is she a Beatles or Stones fan?

Presented without comments

@valuedrift Yay!

@RomanSPQR I confused this week and the last, since I'm taking PTO this Friday!

Tomorrow - up day Day after tomorrow - down day. Next Monday - up day. Next Tuesday - down day.

@MidwestHedgie @notJoevsMoe @DarioCpx Why the flippant answer? “my God is better than your God” kind of reasoning. I suppose “happy for you, or sorry it happened” about your infatuation with Claude (prettiest name of AI models, I agree). Seriously, I’m concerned when skeptical people like you buy into the hype. 🤔

@RomanSPQR @notJoevsMoe @DarioCpx just use Claude problem solved

To go out publicly and say what he is saying, @edzitron has balls the size of the Las Vegas sphere

@valuedrift LOL too late. I was chatting with the national Park volunteer ranger today (who had an amazing and interesting background… working for DOD and the UN previously), and she mentioned people wanting to plant invasive bamboo to prevent data center construction.

TFW you are trying to pivot messaging.

@MidwestHedgie Wow, I wondered if it was just me as I needed a forecast above tree line for a hike in RMNP in Colorado today! (I’ve been staying off twitter while I’m here… what led me to the app was actually a link about the orange moon here that’s extra dark due to smoke from forest fires)

when Biden was president the National Weather Service website actually worked

@gkamstra Thanks for the reply. I haven't ever gone fully phone-free, so my expectations have been lower. But I've been keeping an eye on this promise forever (I watched the 2014 watch streamed event in real time and got it in 2015 on day 1)

Limited ability to customize it how I want. Very slow to give me messages even w a dedicated data plan (and WhatsApp a non-starter). I would prefer a bigger screen. Etc. Bad Spotify experience if not tethered to phone (again despite data plan). I got it to replace my phone when I’m away from home. I’d say it does that for me ~5-10% of the time (but it’s worse). It feels like they could improve a few chips, slightly grow the screen, give you a better app interface and it could be a lite-phone esque experience that lets ppl leave behind their phones. Ofc plausible Apple does not really want such a product, so sure it won’t happen. There is room on the wrist form factor though I think (and so much less invasive vs glasses. Wrist plus ear buds is not bad).

Why is no one trying to make a better wrist-based product? I don’t want any of these in my life. I would love a more functional, less buggy/laggy version of Apple Watch Ultra that lets me leave my phone at home.

@MidwestHedgie ❤️🤗 Happy 42nd birthday, Claire! * * because (1) you look 42, and (2) Douglas Adams

update: i went out for a long walk to reset, and when i got home there was a cast iron skillet of pecan brownies cooling down, because i am the luckiest girl in the world

@valuedrift “Interesting” “guidance”

Interesting guidance $SPCX