Ronnie Stoeferle

This is a great point, and I agree that for China, gold is too small to replace dollar reserve assets at current prices. So the legacy stock of reserves is largely stuck in Western financial assets. Gold is more an outlet for incremental flow than a substitute for the existing stock. But that’s also a big part of the bull case. Gold is a relatively small asset class, so even a modest marginal reallocation from USG bonds to gold has a very large effect on price. And there is a gold price that can absorb more of China’s and the RoW’s surpluses. It’s just much, much higher. But what I think this episode highlights more than anything else is the weakness of using commodities as reserve assets. Their prices will fall at exactly the point reserves are most needed. That’s certainly true for energy and industrial commodities. And while gold used to be more counter-cyclical, in the new reserve paradigm, it becomes pro-cyclical too. The reason gov bonds work so well as reserves is that their price is anchored by the expected path of future policy rates, and less by flows. And in a growth slowdown, when you might need to liquidate reserves, rate expectations typically fall and bond prices rise. Gold doesn’t have that anchor. Importantly, when gold played the reserve asset role under the Gold Standard and Bretton Woods, the gold price was fixed. The adjustment happened through the money supply and domestic economic conditions. Today gold floats, so the adjustment happens in the gold price itself. And that’s what makes it much more volatile and much more pro-cyclical now. But until a new reserve architecture exists, gold will increasingly be pushed into that role anyway bc there aren’t any better alternatives, aside from countries actually reversing the domestic policies that create their surpluses in the first place. They won’t do that willingly. Eventually the world will come together and create a new trading system with something like Keynes’ Bancor idea at the center. But that’s a long way off. There were 20 years and two world wars between the initial collapse of the gold standard and Bretton Woods. Until a new system is built, gold is going to play a major role as a reserve asset.

Holy shit. Even for Trump this is bad.

Development Timelines: Copper Mines vs. AI Data Centers ⏲️ AI infrastructure scales in 18-24 months. New copper mines take an average of 17.9 years. Read the full breakdown: miningvisuals.com/post/the-17-9-…

You're maybe wondering: why are gold and silver plunging during such a geopolitical crisis? 🆘 Basically, 3 reasons: 🏧 Forced liquidations driven by widespread margin calls 🏦 Higher interest rate expectations 🌏 Lower demand from EMs #Geopolitics #OilShock #PreciousMetals

The amount of panic in my inbox over this #Gold sell-off is a good contrarian indicator. If you are losing sleep over a short-term dip, you aren't looking at the big picture. Gold is still up double-digits in almost every major currency this year. Don't let recency bias shake you out of a generational bull run. The data speaks for itself. 👇

@michaeljmcnair Excellent points made, Michael. I agree with your view.

Gold and silver are not acting well in a period of rapidly rising geopolitical risks. We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility. In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. But once you understand what is now driving gold, this move makes perfect sense. Something fundamental changed after the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022. For decades, surplus countries parked their excess savings in US dollar assets, mostly Treasuries. The freezing of Russian reserves combined with the current administration's explicit push to discourage foreign countries from parking excess savings in US financial assets, forced surplus countries to rethink where they store reserves. And those countries haven't changed their domestic policies that generate the excess savings, so those savings have to be placed somewhere. The result is that gold and silver have increasingly become the obvious “neutral” reserve assets. That’s why gold decoupled from the three factors that used to explain it…real interest rates, volatility, and liquidity. Now reserve accumulation flows have become the primary driver. That shift has a consequence I don’t think most investors have thought through. If gold is now primarily driven by reserve flows from surplus countries, then gold has become pro-cyclical. Reserve growth is driven by export revenues, trade surpluses, economic growth in surplus economies. When the global economy is strong and surplus countries are generating large export revenues, their excess savings grow, their reserve accumulation accelerates, and gold catches a bid. When that surplus generation is disrupted, the bid weakens or reverses. This is exactly what is happening with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The GCC countries are major reserve/gold buyers and now their export revenues are collapsing. They likely need to liquidate some reserves to cover fiscal obligations, and gold is one of their most liquid assets. Even if the reserve sales aren’t excessive yet, the market can see their reserve accumulation has stalled and probably reversed. That flow, which was a meaningful source of gold demand, has gone to zero at best. There are also secondary effects on other surplus economies. China is the world's largest oil importer. An energy shock of this magnitude slows Chinese growth, and compresses Chinese surpluses, which slows Chinese reserve accumulation. That same growth shock ripples through Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the rest of Asia. The whole chain that has been driving gold higher, surplus countries generating excess savings that need a home outside the dollar system, is being disrupted by an event that in the old model would have been unambiguously bullish for gold. This doesn't mean the structural case for gold is broken. The dollar standard is still ending. Surplus countries still need an alternative to Treasuries and gold is still the most obvious destination. But it does mean gold is going to be more volatile along that structural trend than most people expect, and the volatility will correlate with global growth and surplus generation rather than with the old drivers. Gold rallies when surpluses expand. Gold sells off when surpluses contract. Even if the reason for the contraction is rising geopolitical risk that, under the old model, should have sent gold to the moon.

As the always brilliant @kevinmuir just wrote, the #FOMC meeting is bound to disappoint... "This is an impossible environment for Powell to stickhandle through. No matter what he does, he’s bound to disappoint." I could not agree more to Kev...

"Much has been written about panics and manias, much more than with the most outstretched intellect we are able to follow or conceive; but one thing is certain, that at particular times a great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money." Walter Bagehot

So excited for my interview with @judyshel tomorrow! It’s going to be a major highlight of #IGWT26 (dropping May 20th). 🎙️ What questions do you have for Dr. Shelton? Drop them below! 👇

War, Oil, and the Revenge of Hard Assets Another excellent piece by @TedJButler at our @SoundMoneyRpt open.substack.com/pub/soundmoney…

Nice table by #Goldman showing how various asset classes perform amid geopolitical events:

Oil Demand Destruction!

Most recent #BIS Quarterly Review with some interesting comments reg. #silver and #gold: bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…

Honestly, Nvidia has become a value stock... sigh

🎙️ New podcast drop! The co-founder of the IGWT Report, @RonStoeferle joins @sprott to explore “The Future of Sound Money” on the Sprott Radio Podcast. Why is gold back in the spotlight among governments, central banks, and investors? 🌍 What role could it play in a rapidly transforming global monetary system? 🏦✨ 🔎From shifting macro trends to the resurgence of sound money principles, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss. 📻 Tune in now: sprott.com/podcast/ep89/ #GoldInvesting #PreciousMetals #BullMarket #MonetarySystem #DebtGrowth #Geopolitics #Dedollarization #InvestmentInsights #PortfolioStrategy #NewGoldPlaybook #TheBigLong #IGWT24 #IGWT25

What a brilliant game that was

JOHN CLEESE's reply to a 14yr old kid asking if he had a fan club he could join.

📈🪙 Gold has grown from being a Contrarian Play into a Consensual Trade 🎞️ This clip is an excerpt from a recent conversation that @RonStoeferle had with @soarfinancial on March 11, 2026. 🏦 The world’s largest investment banks and financial institutions are now issuing notably higher gold price targets. Fascinatingly, this time, they’re not playing it safe. 💡 Many of these projections are outright bullish, as they call for prices well above current levels and prevailing trends. This marks a decisive turning point. Gold is no longer viewed as a fringe hedge or a contrarian bet reserved for the few. Undoubtedly, it is steadily moving into the mainstream by being incorporated into model portfolios, institutional strategies, and long-term asset allocation frameworks. 📊 From outlier to essential 📣 From skepticism to conviction 🧭 From trade to strategic anchor As we emphasize in the In Gold We Trust Report, a secular bull market matures when participation broadens. When what was once dismissed becomes widely embraced. That transition is clearly underway. Notwithstanding, if history is any guide, the most powerful phase may still lie ahead. 🔮 #GoldForecast #InstitutionalInvestors #MarketTrends #InvestmentInsights #PortfolioStrategy #WealthManagement #MarketAnalysis #BullMarket

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.