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RonH
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RonH
@Ronh999
Natgas, LNG & Energy Info WARNING: If you use foul language or bring in politics in reply to my tweets you will be blocked.
USA Katılım Eylül 2010
32 Takip Edilen11.4K Takipçiler


CME daily futures settlement prices for JKM-SE Asia Platts and TTF (TTE) for Mar 25. #USLNG #Natgas public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…


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Europe GEFS (GFS Ensemble) temperature anomaly 12z forecast for Mar 25 to Apr 10 from Pivotal Weather. #Natgas pivotalweather.com/model.php
GIF
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US GEFS (GFS Ensemble) temperature anomaly 12z forecast for Mar 25 to Apr 10 from Pivotal Weather. #Natgas pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2…
GIF
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@jackprandelli The EIA report today for week ending March 20 puts US crude oil stocks (456,182) higher than the 5-year average (454,327).
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🚨 US crude stocks are already below the 5 year average.
And the Gulf supply shock hasn't fully hit yet.
This chart tells you exactly how thin the buffer is right now:
📉 Current stocks: below prior year for almost all of 2025
📉 Below the 5 year average heading into a supply crisis
📉 Sitting near the bottom half of the historical range
The US strategic buffer was already lean before Hormuz went dark.
Before Saudi's largest refinery got droned.
Markets sold off on ceasefire talk this week.
But the physical inventory doesn't care about headlines.
It cares about barrels...And the barrels aren't there🛢️
Every week this conflict continues = another draw on stocks that are already running below normal.
The ceasefire trade is a sentiment trade.
This chart is the reality trade 🎯
💡 Subscribe to my newsletter for daily energy & macro breakdowns, link in my bio

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Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the highs of the month, but, as @JavierBlas pointed out, far below the 2022 highs?
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NWS pwCDD & gwHDD daily forecast for next 7 days Mar 25 to Mar 31 are shown in green. #Natgas cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy… public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

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RonH retweetledi

This is nuts. There are ten (count 'em) fully loaded LNG vessels moored and stationary off Ras Laffan.
Assuming each are Q-Flex class (the most common type in QatarEnergy’s fleet, with a standard capacity of 210,000 m³ each) then that's approximately 1.29 Bcm of natural gas.
That's enough gas to meet the entire demand of Japan for 5 days, Germany for 6 days, the UK for 7.5 days, or France for 15 days.
The gas is sitting there in liquid form, held in state-of-the-art cryogenic tanks, slowly boiling off.
All while the world watches a slow-motion supply crisis ripple out from South Asia to the rest of the world.

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RonH retweetledi

🚨 Saudi Arabia just lost its main oil export route
Bhut they have a backup plan
the only issue is that it can only replace less than half.
the question now is what happens next?
🟡 Gulf exports nearly gone in March 2026
⬜ Yanbu (Red Sea) exports surging, but nowhere near enough
• Saudi Arabia ships 7M barrels/day through the Persian Gulf
• Persian Gulf disruption = shipments stuck, rerouted, or blocked
• Yanbu is the backup but it's pipeline constrained by design
• You cannot replace a sea lane with a pipeline overnight
This is now a physical supply story 🛢️
When barrels can't physically leave the world's largest exporter markets don't just reprice.
They break.
The Strait of Hormuz was always called the most important chokepoint on earth.
One chart from Bloomberg just proved why🌍
📊 Source: Bloomberg / Vessel tracking data
💡 Subscribe to my newsletter for weekly energy & geopolitics breakdowns, link in my bio
#OilMarkets #SaudiArabia #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Commodities #Energy

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RonH retweetledi

Iran has set 5 conditions for which it will accept an end to the war bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…

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US avg price for #diesel was $5.375 last week. That is $+1.808 YoY. #OOTT public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

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US avg retail price for #gasoline was $3.961 last week. That is $+0.846 YoY. #OOTT public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

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US consumers spent $3.1 million dollars per day for #gasoline last week. That is $-3.6 mil YoY. #OOTT public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

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US consumers bought 1484.6 million gallons of #gasoline per day last week. That is +353.9 mil YoY. #OOTT public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8…

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