Royals Data Dugout

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The #Royals have set the first turn through the rotation to begin the season: Cole Ragans (Opening Day) Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Kris Bubic (home opener) Noah Cameron

@jeffbo88 Same, think he should get a taste of them and play maybe 50% against LHP. He’s going to need off-days anyway so makes sense for Sal to handle plate duties against lefties

@RoyalsData I will riot if Jensen is on a strict platoon.

Opening Day lineups are fun to project, but what might be more important for the #Royals are what mid-season lineups look like if things break right (Jac builds on a strong spring, Jensen's late 2026 wasn't a mirage, Isaac Collins's late 2026 was a mirage, etc.) These may look different than you'd expect, but my ideal lineups June 1: RHP Witt SS Pasquantino 1B Garcia 3B Caglianone RF Perez C Jensen DH Collins LF India/Massey 2B (think these two will mostly split time against RHP) Isbel CF LHP Witt SS Collins LF Pasquantino 1B Garcia 3B Perez C Caglianone RF (I will riot if Cags is in a strict platoon) Thomas CF Marte DH India 2B

@KoreyLankton I will promptly inform my wife that someone thinks so

@RoyalsData Brilliant!

Day 2 survivor pick: Virginia 🏀 Famous last words, but feels like the lock of the day for smaller pools. Will only be favored by a point or two against six-seed Tennessee next round and a dog the rest of the way.

I’m a firm believer Cags will produce. Would like to share some deeper thoughts on Jensen at some point, but KC doesn’t even need him to be outright good — he just needs to be an average hitter. Say he reaches 1.5 fWAR with a 97 wRC+. He’s worth double that to the Royals because that’s good enough to play 120 games, catch 100 and push Sal out from behind the plate to keep his legs fresh.

@RoyalsData Absolutely. Man I hope Cags and Jensen hit. This could get real fun.

@Justinrusty12 His comfort at 2 was part of why I didn’t consider it seriously for most of the offseason, but he looked pretty cozy during the WBC. Plus think it would be a boon for Vinnie to hit 2 behind Bob/in front of Maikel and get a lot more pitches to hit.

@RoyalsData On paper I don’t hate it, but if it impacts Bobs PA negatively at all / he’s not as comfortable than I’d rather stick with Maikel who I know can do it

I’m a recent convert, partially because the best alternative (barring Isaac Collins showing something beyond plate discipline) is Maikel, whose bat I would rather have in the middle of the lineup. Get BWJ the most PAs possible, keep Maikel in the middle as a run producer. Plus, with Collins/India at the bottom, you still have guys who can reach in front of Bobby.

@RoyalsData You are a member of the Witt lead off crew? I thought overwhelming data supported him better in the 2 spot

@KoreyLankton Yeah just wanted to capture what I’d do if things are going well

@RoyalsData Not to mention what JJ might add in July if things are going well.

Seth Lugo threw five innings/72 pitches today in a Minor League game. Said he felt great, issued no walks and threw a lot of strikes. Worked around some traffic on the bases. Good return for him after the WBC. #Royals

@Drizzy_Dru29 Whoa, I personally don’t appreciate the negative implication of 33-year-olds being past their prime! I’m in the best shape of my life!* *not

@RoyalsData The man is 33 years old. Have a bad feeling the decline is underway and we may have got his best innings he has left.

Monocle emoji warranted. Here's where Estevez's fastball velo sat around similar points in Spring Training in previous years. He is still well behind his usual ramp-up period. 3/18/26 (last night): 89 MPH ---- 3/20/25: 92.5 MPH 3/22/25: 93.9 MPH ---- 3/26/24: 96.7 MPH ---- 3/21/23: 94.9 MPH ---- 3/26/22: 95.4 MPH

Day 1 survivor pick: Arkansas I look forward to having another reason to dislike John Calipari

🏀🏀🏀 Elite Eight Duke-Mich St Florida-Illinois Arizona-Purdue Michigan-Iowa St Final Four Duke-Illinois Arizona-Michigan Champ Arizona over Duke

@IMukima Arizona is my pick to win it all, but there's a big edge in taking Michigan if you're in a mid-size or larger pool.

@RoyalsData Arizona will win it they got it all, the backcourt the bigs won the toughest conference good bench I don’t see a big weakness.

Some simple last-minute NCAA tournament advice: If you're in a pool of 50+ people, just take Michigan to win. They're ~21% to win the title based on the market but being picked as champion only 14%, per Yahoo public bracket data.

Long one, but a fun episode with @JohnyJ_15 out now! - WBC thoughts - Roster Projection 3.0 - “Press the Button” on stat projections for 2026 youtu.be/N8mUmLs5qLc?si…

@jestrella05 We'll check back in a few weeks!

@RoyalsData Lol it's spring training. Put the computer down. A lot of pitchers don't go all out. It's all about stretching the arm out and getting ready.

Am I allowed to be nervous yet? I keep being told this is normal for Carlos Estevez

Carlos Estevez has been a slow ramp up guy throughout his career, but Opening Day is 8 days away and he's still 88-90 with the FB. We aren't at DEFCON 5, but this is more than "something to monitor" this close to the season. Also walked 3 and threw 9 strikes out of 28 pitches.

Assuming there’s not a 3-4 mph spike over the next week, the #Royals have to use Erceg or Strahm to close out games while Estévez continues to build in lower leverage. 88-90 mph is concerning. 88-90 mph with little command is more than alarming.

@dhbytes 90.7 MPH on 13 fastballs, per @TJStats

@RoyalsData what was his velocity in the WBC?