RuanBeukes

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

Paul Tudor Jones just said something the market really doesn't want to hear. "We're clearly so leveraged in equities in this country. We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929, we were at 65%. In 1987, about 85%. In 2000, we got to 170%. And now we're at 252." Every number he listed, 1929, 1987, 2000 ended the same way. "If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every ten years. That would be a 30 to 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 89% of GDP. The reverse wealth effect, oh my gosh. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains; they go to zero." This isn't a perma bear making noise but Paul Tudor Jones called the 1987 crash before it happened and made 200% that year. When he talks about mean reversion, he's speaking from a track record that almost nobody in finance can match and then he said this: "If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows." He's right, every major study on long-term equity returns shows that starting valuation is the single most predictive variable for 10-year forward performance. At a P/E of 22, history doesn't give you a great answer. "The real problem is, if you look at private equity in 2007 and 2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16%. Real estate's gone up. Infrastructure bets have gone up. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008." In 2008, the crisis was bad because the system was leveraged. Today the system is leveraged and illiquid, pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds can't hit a sell button on private equity. They can't exit real estate in a week, when forced deleveraging starts in a system this illiquid, the exit doors are half the size they were last time. Jones didn't say a crash is coming tomorrow. He said the conditions that produce the worst outcomes in financial history are more present right now than at any prior peak he's seen in 50 years of trading. He said buying the S&P at these levels and expecting the same returns as the past 100 years is math that doesn't work because those 100-year averages include decades when stocks were priced at 6 or 7 times earnings, not 22. "Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high, and it's going to be really hard to make money from here."

Next week is a big one for earnings: • Apple • Alphabet • Microsoft • Amazon • Meta

𝕏 has always been the best source of financial news for traders and investors. Billions of dollars are allocated every day based on what people read on Timeline. Today we're launching our new Cashtags feature in the US and Canada on iPhone, bringing real-time financial data to X. Here's how it works: 1. When you search for or post a cashtag (or contract address), X will automatically suggest matching stocks or crypto tokens, so you can select the exact asset you had in mind. 2. Anyone who taps a Cashtag will see posts mentioning it along with its price chart—without ever leaving X. This ensures that you're always matched to the chatter for the right stock or token. Cashtags are just the first step in our commitment to be the best destination for the finance and crypto community.

Not a single fintech CEO slept well last night. X just shipped a full financial stack in 48 hours. And most people didn't even notice. Here's the sequence: - Tuesday: Smart Cashtags go live. Any ticker, any contract address native price chart, right in the timeline. No redirect. No third-party app. - Already in beta: X Money. Fiat wallet with 6% APY, metal Visa debit card with 3% cashback, P2P payments, direct deposit. FDIC-insured through Cross River Bank, the same bank behind Coinbase and Stripe. - Already live: Brokerage routing via Wealthsimple. One tap from a post to a placed trade. Three products. All shipped. All pointing the same direction: Discovery → Chart → Trade → Pay. Inside one timeline scroll. Here's what that looks like for you and me: Someone posts a $AAPL cashtag. I tap it. Chart loads. I see the conversation around it. I buy. Never left the app. I send $50 to a friend. On X. I earn 6% on what's left. My debit card gives me 3% back on coffee. Why would I open Robinhood? Why would I open Venmo? Why would I open CoinGecko? And here's why they can't compete: X has 550M monthly users. Robinhood has 24M funded accounts. Venmo has ~90M accounts. CoinGecko has ~30M monthly visits. X doesn't need the best product. It needs a good-enough product inside the app people already live in. Now zoom out. X was an ad revenue company. ~$4.4B in 2023, almost all advertising. The new revenue stack: > Visa interchange on every card swipe > Brokerage referral fees on every routed trade > APY spread on held deposits > Trading behavior data from 550M users X didn't add a feature. X changed its entire business model. "Is this good for X?" Wrong question. X just stopped being a social media company. It's now a financial infrastructure company that happens to have 550 million users already scrolling. Everyone else is competing against a distribution gap they can never close. I wrote about this yesterday before any of it was announced. The sequence played out exactly as mapped. The only piece left: which chain gets the default crypto trading slot. That answer will move markets.

The stock market has never been this illiquid in history. Never. Global equity market cap is around $127 trillion. There’s only a fraction of it waiting on the other side. That’s why the Buffett Indicator is at an all-time high of 232%. Sounds crazy, until it isn’t.

🚨 BREAKING: The Israelis just begun strikes on Iranian RAIL SYSTEMS and rail BRIDGES across the country, as the US strikes Kharg Island I think it's safe to say — absolutely none of these threats were bluffing on behalf of President Trump. It's power plant and bridge day 🔥 "The Israelis have started strikes against Iranian rail infrastructure." @TreyYingst

Ok fine - maybe you don't want to listen to me. I'm just a 25-year-old on the internet. But maybe you'll listen to them. I documented every major warning from the people actually building AI. Every CEO. Every founder. They're all saying the same thing. Read this slowly: • Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI: "Being a lawyer, an accountant, a project manager, a marketing person - most of those tasks will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months." • Elon Musk: "AI and robots will replace all jobs. Working will be optional." Called AI his "biggest fear." • Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic: AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs. Unemployment could hit 20%. Called it "unusually painful." Then said: "Most lawmakers are unaware this is about to happen." • Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI: "Some areas, I think just like totally, totally gone." Said changes that normally take 75 years will be compressed into a short period. Admitted he loses sleep over it. • Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia: "Every job will be affected, and immediately. It is unquestionable." • Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase: "It will eliminate jobs. People should stop sticking their head in the sand." Warned mass AI layoffs without safeguards could trigger "civil unrest." Said he'd welcome a government ban on mass-firing for AI. • Stuart Russell (author of the most-used AI textbook in history): Political leaders are "staring 80% unemployment in the face". • Kai-Fu Lee, VC & former head of Google China: Called predictions of 50% job displacement by 2027 "uncannily accurate." These aren't journalists. These aren't influencers. These aren't politicians trying to get elected. These are the people building it. Funding it. Deploying it. And not one of them is saying your job is safe.

On Valentine’s Day 36 years ago, at the request of Carl Sagan, NASA turned Voyager 1's camera back toward home for one last look. From 3.7 billion miles away, it captured this: a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam. Here is how Carl Sagan beautifully described it: “Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor, and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every 'superstar,' every 'supreme leader,' every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there — on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam. The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.”

@stats_feed @grok @grok is this a fact?

@stats_feed @grok is this a fact

Men who ejaculate at least 21 times a month may have a 20% lower chance of getting prostate cancer than those who ejaculate 4 to 7 times a month. (The Harvard ejaculation study)

🤣🤣

The real reason the US is invading Venezuela goes back to a deal Henry Kissinger made with Saudi Arabia in 1974. And I'm going to explain why this is actually about the SURVIVAL of the US dollar itself. Not drugs. Not terrorism. Not "democracy." This is about the petrodollar system that has kept America the dominant economic power for 50 years. And Venezuela just threatened to end it. Here's what really just happened: Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The largest on Earth. More than Saudi Arabia. 20% of the entire world's oil. But here's the part that matters: Venezuela was actively selling that oil in Chinese yuan. Not dollars. In 2018, Venezuela announced it would "free itself from the dollar." They started accepting yuan, euros, rubles, anything BUT dollars for oil. They were petitioning to join BRICS. They were building direct payment channels with China that bypass SWIFT entirely. And they were sitting on enough oil to fund de-dollarization for decades. Why does this matter? Because the entire American financial system is built on one thing: The petrodollar. In 1974, Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia: All oil sold globally must be priced in US dollars. In exchange, America provides military protection. This single agreement created artificial demand for dollars worldwide. Every country on Earth needs dollars to buy oil. This lets America print unlimited money while other countries work for it. It funds the military. The welfare state. The deficit spending. The petrodollar is more important to US hegemony than aircraft carriers. And there's a pattern of what happens to leaders who challenge it: 2000: Saddam Hussein announces Iraq will sell oil in euros instead of dollars. 2003: Invaded. Regime change. Iraq's oil immediately switched back to dollars. Saddam lynched. The WMDs were never found because they never existed. 2009: Gaddafi proposes a gold-backed African currency called the "gold dinar" for oil trade. Hillary Clinton's own leaked emails confirm this was the PRIMARY reason for intervention. Email quote: "This gold was intended to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar." 2011: NATO bombs Libya. Gaddafi sodomized and murdered. Libya now has open slave markets. "We came, we saw, he died!" Clinton laughed on camera. The gold dinar died with him. And now Maduro. With FIVE TIMES more oil than Saddam and Gaddafi combined. Actively selling in yuan. Building payment systems outside dollar control. Petitioning to join BRICS. Partnered with China, Russia, and Iran. The three countries leading global de-dollarization. This isn't coincidence. Challenge the petrodollar. Get regime changed. Every. Single. Time. Stephen Miller (US homeland security advisor) literally said it out loud two weeks ago: "American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property." He's not hiding it. They're claiming Venezuelan oil BELONGS to America because US companies developed it 100 years ago. By this logic, every nationalized resource in history was "theft." But here's the DEEPER problem: The petrodollar is already dying. Russia sells oil in rubles and yuan since Ukraine. Saudi Arabia is openly discussing yuan settlements. Iran has been trading in non-dollar currencies for years. China built CIPS, their own alternative to SWIFT with 4,800 banks in 185 countries. BRICS is actively building payment systems that bypass the dollar entirely. The mBridge project lets central banks settle trades instantly in local currencies. Venezuela joining BRICS with 303 billion barrels of oil would accelerate this exponentially. That's what this invasion is really about. Not stopping drugs. Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of US cocaine. Not terrorism. There's zero evidence Maduro runs a "terror organization." Not democracy. The US supports Saudi Arabia, which has zero elections. This is about maintaining a 50-year-old agreement that lets America print money while the world works for it. And the consequences are terrifying: Russia, China, and Iran are already denouncing this as "armed aggression." China is Venezuela's biggest oil customer. They're losing billions. BRICS nations are watching a country get invaded for trading outside the dollar. Every nation considering de-dollarization just got the message: Challenge the dollar and we will bomb you. But here's the problem... That message might accelerate de-dollarization, not stop it. Because now every country in the Global South knows what happens if you threaten dollar hegemony. And they're realizing the only protection is to move FASTER. The timing is insane too: January 3rd, 2026. Venezuela invaded. Maduro captured. January 3rd, 1990. Panama invaded. Noriega captured. 36 years apart. Almost to the day. Same playbook. Same "drug trafficking" excuse. Same real reason: control of strategic resources and trade routes. History doesn't repeat. But it rhymes. What happens next: Trump's press conference at Mar-a-Lago sets the narrative. US oil companies are already lined up. Politico reported they've been approached about "returning to Venezuela." The opposition will be installed. Oil will flow in dollars again. Venezuela becomes another Iraq. Another Libya. But here's what nobody's asking: What happens when you can no longer bomb your way to dollar dominance? When China has enough economic leverage to retaliate? When BRICS controls 40% of global GDP and says "no more dollars"? When the world realizes the petrodollar is maintained by violence? America just showed its hand. The question is whether the rest of the world folds or calls the bluff. Because this invasion is an admission that the dollar can no longer compete on its own merits. When you have to bomb countries to keep them using your currency, the currency is already dying. Venezuela isn't the beginning. It's the desperate end. What do you think?

Billionaire investor Ron Baron explains why you’re getting poorer: Money loses 4–5% purchasing power per year. The economy grows ~2% annually. That’s ~7% erosion working against you. What this means: Prices double every 10–12 years. Your savings lose half their value in ~15 years. Cash sitting still is a guaranteed loss. The system is designed to punish savers.

2026 is a slow-motion train wreck the MSM still doesn’t see 🚨 • 60% of mortgages hit renewal 🏠 • Millions won’t qualify at today’s rates (even if banks roll them) 📉 • Construction is warning up to 50% job losses (-800,000) 👷‍♂️💥 This isn’t a surprise. People were warned all year. Most ignored it. 👀

Time to put your flip flops on and figure out what the problem is Gurpreet.

@Sportsnet it's back on. Thanks to the engineer who fixed this key moment

Housing prices will crash hard. The ponzi has collapsed. The youth buy crypto with their spare money. Nobody is saving for a deposit on mortgages to buy over price boomer jackpots. Everyone hates banks. Houses are too expensive. Bitcoin is the solution.

@mario4thenorth @PierrePoilievre was right. In Canada you can be whatever you want. For instance, a foreigner can become prime minister of Canada overnight and then be elected with the same team that drove Canada to the ground for the last 10 years

South Africa is what happens when you take DEI seriously, which is why the western media pretend it’s not happening. Ernst Roets on what’s going on there right now. (0:00) South Africa Is Falling Apart (4:03) The True Story of Nelson Mandela (8:50) Perfect Example of the Failures of Communism (12:34) The Killing of Whites in South Africa (16:36) How Corporate Media Tries to Hide This (23:01) The West’s Role in the Destruction of South Africa (26:02) The Origins of the Afrikaner People (33:40) Europe’s Propaganda War and Concentration Camps (41:10) Why Does the West Hate Whites So Much? (52:53) Elon Musk’s Willingness to Speak Out (55:33) Trump’s Attempt to Help South Africa (1:03:35) The Afrikaner’s Plan to Fix Their Country (1:17:34) Why Roets Is Facing Treason Charges (1:26:44) Racist Mob Rule (1:31:09) Why Doesn’t the South African Government Want Peace? (1:37:43) Why Roets Refuses to Leave South Africa Includes paid partnerships.