RubberneckingS

@juliajeler @Lord_Ashdrake @adamscochran On a $10B defense budget Iran wrecked more US military assets thn Iraq & Afghanistan combined; US evacuated Iraq; all 13 bases unlivable. Every strategic objective backfired; the global humiliation is unprecedented. Oh, yea; the US is now in stagflation, Iran did tht.

@RubberneckingS @Lord_Ashdrake @adamscochran Bullshit. Trump single handedly took over the entire oil flow. Hamas gone. Hezbollah gone. Iranian economy gone - at the mercy of USA. Be honest - what was Irans actual strategic goal? Barrel at $300 and ‘kill’ petrodollar. What instead happened? 😉

I mean why wouldn’t Iran agree in principle to that? Right now they: * Have their uranium * Aren’t getting bombed * Are tolling the Strait * Their ships are sailing past the US blockade They are getting everything they want in a ceasefire, so it’s in their interest to extend it. Trump is going to hope that something else takes over the news cycle and he can walk away from this, while folding 100% to them.

@Ussignur_ @adamscochran The American tolerance for Israel is running thin. The answer to ur question was "no & the US will join". Now? that answer is genuinely unknown. Israel's support in the US is collapsing in record time.

@adamscochran but will Israel stop?

@fmftint @adamscochran U guys r not handling this well? art of the deal ain't working?

@karasoth @adamscochran How many of their ships were passing b4 Trump's blockade? Same number. Ur calling the status quo ante the status quo due to Trump's blockade. Nope. Dumbest war in history.

@adamscochran Their ships arent sailing past the us blockaid

@aaro44288 @adamscochran It's business as usual since the start of the war; loitering ships, few get through, MAGA thinks Trump's blockade did that, nope; it's literally what's been going on since Iran's blockade started.

@adamscochran I don’t think their ships are sailing past the US blockade.

@juliajeler @Lord_Ashdrake @adamscochran They just humiliated the US. 3 trillion in economic downstream losses, trillions in geopolitical influence, trillions in future revenue and investment from the gulf, China is already meeting with Gulf countries to wean from the US. Global humiliation frm Europe, Asia, Ukraine

@Lord_Ashdrake @adamscochran Yup. While getting constantly bombed the adrenaline makes you think you’re winning. As the dust has settled the Iranian people and regime have realized they’ve lost any chance of winning. @adamscochran has not considered that.

@Lord_Ashdrake @juliajeler @adamscochran .... this is embarrassing, just stop. The whole world & country is mocking u right now. "He didn't lose, he's leaving them to reflect".

@juliajeler @adamscochran Probably at least a decade depending on how they priotize their investments and if they get help from outside or not

@juliajeler @adamscochran Trump: change the regime. Iran: fuck off. Trump: open the strait or I bomb u to hell. Iran: fuck off. Trump: I'll blockade ur ships too. Iran: fuck off. Trump: fine, let's just keep talking. MAGA: Trump won.

@adamscochran In moments like this the Iranian people and even the IRGC can fully digest how much they’ve been destroyed and set back. Massive advantage for USA.

@MLJK87 @adamscochran Trump tried to open the strait, he failed, so he's blockading the blockade to look tough even though he's effectuating Iran's objective for them.

@adamscochran how can you call yourself an expert and not even know the absolute basics of how the blockade works which by now everyone even semi educated knows? Go and learn something, your ignorance is embarrassing

@The_Real_Solyad @ianbremmer This is what I don't understand, if I'm defeating u, I want u to live with the humiliation. Trump has to live with the most humiliating strategic defeat in US history. Bibi has to watch Israel being disowned by the US in record time.

@ianbremmer Ask these guys who won this war.

trump declaring victory in war with iran and deescalating is by far the smartest move he can make right now. would’ve been better weeks ago. but it’s welcome nonetheless.

@tawny_here @ianbremmer

@ianbremmer Uh, we didn’t win.

@MarioNawfal (4)when we say this war is dumb, we mean it. None of this makes sense. Trump is shooting from the hip the entire war.

First full day of the U.S. naval blockade on Iran: - Zero vessels left Iranian ports - Six merchant ships turned back after American warnings - No shots fired, no enforcement needed Meanwhile, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued normally with over 20 vessels passing through. The blockade is off to a quiet but effective start. Iran blinked first, ships are turning around without a fight. The real test will come in the next few days when Tehran decides whether to push back or keep playing it safe. Source: WSJ

@MarioNawfal (3) there's a reason Iranian PMs r posting laughing emojis. THIS is Iran's 1ry tactic in the war. They expected the second they close Hormuz, their exports wd be blockaded. They were pleasantly surprised when Trump did the opposite & lifted sanctions; they exploited tht.

@MarioNawfal (2) It's looking more & more like posturing by Trump to appear tough; he's not changing anything. Iran has 170m barrels in floating storage; pre-war they exported < 1m barrels per day. Do the math.

@MarioNawfal Mario, it sounds like ur learning on the job. 0 shipsleave Iran's ports on most days; they were hit by Israel. Ships loitering & hailed the entire time. Ur describing what happens in the strait every day & framing it as a new development. So far nothing changed.

@HunterStires @RichardHaass @WSJ O yea, the law which wasn't ratified by Iran, Israel and the US. Plus, claiming Iran is breaking international law is comical coming from Israel or the US; they really have no leg to stand on.

@RichardHaass @WSJ No tolls—need to stick fast to the enduring U.S. interest of the Freedom of the Sea (as codified in UNCLOS), which has been enormously beneficial to the world.

The @WSJ reports Saudi Arabia pressing US to drop its Hormuz blockade. Here's an idea: a Saudi initiative calling for both the Strait of Hormuz & the Bab el-Mandeb to be open to all. Saudis could also propose a toll-sharing formula that would benefit all locals including iran.

@mercoglianos @RichardHaass @WSJ It's their right at this point, go read the economic assessment of US-Israel strikes، ur blood will boil.

@RichardHaass @WSJ Toll sharing? Why even consider this scenario.

@semafor @SenRickScott @burgessev News flash: China has the biggest emergency oil reserves ever = 1.3 billion barrels. They consume 16M barrels per day, Iran gives them less than 1M barrels per day. The initial calculus didn't change; Iran & China can wait it out & watch the US economy fall apart.

"I think blocking the Strait of Hormuz is fine from my standpoint," @SenRickScott tells @burgessev. “If no oil ever goes to China again, and their economy is destroyed, that would be a really wonderful day for me."

@biannagolodryga We are witnessing in real time the dismantling of American economic & military influence.... Every such move is moving more & more away from the US. Future presidents will deal with the costs; kina like Biden had to to deal with Oct7, a product of Trump's policies.

“Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn’t include the ‘belligerent’ parties, meaning the U.S., Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn’t be under American command.” wsj.com/world/europe/e…