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I’ll give Andy Burnham a 25% chance of winning the Makerfield by election
Then what will the labour party do?
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Russell Dutton 🏴🇬🇧🇺🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸
178.2K posts
Russell Dutton 🏴🇬🇧🇺🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸
@RussellDutton
Private account, keen runner socially & for charity. Views are my own, don’t follow if you don’t want straight talking politics & sports comment.
England, United Kingdom Katılım Mart 2010
4.3K Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
Surely it’s going to be imperative for Keir Starmer to campaign vigorously in the Makerfield by election 😂
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He was bought. With £5m. That he didn’t declare because he knew people would, rightly, conclude he had been bought.
Harry Cole@MrHarryCole
EXC: “He who pays the piper picks the tune?” “Hang on a second. Hang on a second. I can't be bought by anybody.” Nigel Farage responds to £5m donor investigation insisting “I'm not and never have been” a crook Now claims it was “reward for campaigning for Brexit for 27 years”
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Andy Burnham: 'King of the North' with eyes on the top job bbc.in/3Pqxomm
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Russell Dutton 🏴🇬🇧🇺🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸 retweetledi
I have a lot of time for Andy Burnham, but what is going on is completely cynical - trading constituencies as if they were political commodities rather than places made up of real people with real concerns, and expecting the entire political process to be put on ice until he is safely moored. This is not what politics should be about.
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What a fantastic choice all for that
GB News@GBNEWS
'To stand Maggie Oliver against Andy Burnham could really knock the wind out of him...' @PatrickChristys and his panel react to calls for grooming gang whistleblower Maggie Oliver to stand as Reform's candidate against Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham in Makerfield.
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“The 4 million pound bandwagon by election”
The cost of @AndyBurnhamGM narcissistic by election dreams to the taxpayers.
Punish him and make sure he doesn’t take any more money from the public purse.
🎵Burnham on the dole, Burnham, Burnham, on the dole 🎵
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Russell Dutton 🏴🇬🇧🇺🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸 retweetledi
Comments from a resident in Makerfield sent to me.
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Andy Burnham is going to find it enormously difficult to win the Makerfield by-election with a slim Labour majority of around 5,000 and Reform winning most of the constituency council seats in the local elections. Could Starmer have deliberately set Burnham up for a fall here?
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Makerfield By-Election Winner Odds (And Implied % Chance):
LAB: 8/13 (53%)
RFM: 5/4 (38%)
RES: 16/1 (5%)
GRN: 33/1 (2%)
CON: 66/1 (1%)
LDM: 200/1 (0%)
Via @Ladbrokes, 14/05 @ 20:30.
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@BobbyInTheNorth @JoshHousden Proven man of people? He’s had more positions than the karma sutra
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@RussellDutton @JoshHousden But what if the voters actually like Burnham, a proven man of the people.. especially northerners.. a d want to give him the chance to be PM and finally have someone representing us for real this time.
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I went back to the post-election polling for Gorton & Denton and applied the "Burnham effect" to Makerfield
It suggests a result closer to:
🟥 LAB: 40.7% (-4.5)
➡️ RFM: 38.7% (+6.9)
🟩 GRN: 7.8% (+3.4)
+/- vs. GE2024
If the constituency voted today
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@Nigel_Farage
Choose a good candidate with no baggage, potentially known to people locally and you will walk this by election.
Choose carefully
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@DPJHodges You need to get out of London a bit pal. No one outside of London likes being taken for a mug. Who pays the cost of this fake by election btw is it the local council? That’ll cheer up local voters who also have to pay for this charade
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Key thing to the Burnham challenge. To win the seat he has to be able to say explicitly he is coming back to seek to lead the Labour Party in a new direction. Voters will respect and respond to that. If he has to feign loyalty to Starmer people will see through it, and he won't win.
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Russell Dutton 🏴🇬🇧🇺🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸 retweetledi
I live a matter of miles from Makerfield. My friends span the political spectrum from Reform to Tory to Labour and more.
All those ive spoken to and messaged since the news broke have said they won't be taken for idiots.
Andy Burnham is in for the shock of his life 🇬🇧
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Crunching the numbers on the Makerfield seat from local elections results.
Reform: 49.8% of the vote.
Labour: 24.3%.
Greens: 10.4%.
Andy Burnham will have to do more than get the current Green and Labour vote combined.
He will have to win back some of that Reform vote
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@ROBANDTHEMOB @reformparty_uk @Nigel_Farage I do hope Reform pick someone well known and with a good personality because they will win at a canter if they do.
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GIF
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I’ll give Andy Burnham a 25% chance of winning the Makerfield by election
Then what will the labour party do?
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@DPJHodges Well no he doesn’t tbf and he will lose the by election by over 5000 votes which is probably what No10 wants
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Yesterday Downing Street were boasting Wes Streeting had bottled it and Andy Burnham didn't have a seat. This evening Wes Streeting has followed though and resigned, and Andy Burnham does indeed have a seat.
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@ROBANDTHEMOB @reformparty_uk @Nigel_Farage I’m afraid what I said about Burnham the other week is coming true. Narcissism doesn’t don’t it justice, that’s one by election I might set my alarm for 😂
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@RussellDutton Wouldn’t it be epic 💩 🏠 ing if @reformparty_uk and £5Million @Nigel_Farage took the seat ?🤔
GIF
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@patrickkmaguire Yeah and it’s totally different times and the reason for the by election is also a massive factor. I’d reverse that number for his share of the vote now
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Counterpoint: Keir Starmer on the ballot here. Burnham wins *62 per cent* in Makerfield in 2024 mayoral.
Patrick Maguire@patrickkmaguire
Eight Makerfield wards voted last week. Results: Reform: 50.4% Labour: 22.7% Green: 10.9% Conservative: 9.9% Lib Dem: 3.8% Other: 2.2%
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