Ryan Squire

The energy at #BlackTechWeek is incredible. Innovation is thriving in Ohio, and we're just getting started. Tomorrow, JobsOhio connects with founders at Ohio Opportunity Day, followed by insights from Ohio entrepreneurs and remarks from President & CEO J.P. Nauseef. #BTW26

Found the actual, here's what our finance team shared: After privatizing a State-owned business (liquor) which had $257M in profit in 2012, Ohio has now received at least $16B in direct value (and up to $30B in total / holistic value) through a strong, sustained ‘fiscal flywheel’ (Source: IMPLAN (jobsohio.com/newsroom/ohio-…))

@RyanSquire Ryan, just to confirm — do you mean the $92.5M FY2012 net liquor profit figure from the state's CAFR, or the $237M FY2011 figure reported in the Jan. 2012 WOSU story?

Hi @RyanSquire, just assuring you see this. We're so close! Thanks for all of this — it's genuinely useful, and incredibly responsive. A few things we will incorporate into a Version 2 of the paper: • The monthly executed grants/loans reports (back to 2015) do provide real project-level inputs — company, investment, jobs, payroll, program value. We'll correct our framing to reflect that this data is public, while noting it reflects commitments at time of signing rather than independently verified outcomes. • Your point on the perpetuity assumption — that it's illustrative of potential rather than a firm projection — will be quoted directly. • The Business First piece Carrie Ghose wrote in December gave us a useful data point we didn't have: 4% of your 4,200 projects have gone to clawback, you've recovered about two-thirds of $52 million, and those 177 companies hit 25% of pledged jobs and 60% of pledged payroll. We'll cite that directly — clearly scoped as portfolio-wide and historical, not the same sample as the Auditor's recent tax-credit review, so the two aren't conflated. • We'll also cite Mr. Nauseef's point about sizing incentives to recover the equivalent in payroll taxes within two to three years. A few things we still can't get from public sources, and would appreciate your help with for Version 2: 1. The underlying metric evaluation and expiration report you send to ODOD each year — not a news summary of it, the report itself (or the data behind it). We'd like to check the figures independently rather than cite them secondhand through an article. 2. The project-level detail behind the 4%/$52 million clawback figure — which companies, amounts, and dates — so we can verify the aggregate rather than take the topline number as given. 3. Any documentation of how the front-end "we decline to incentivize projects that don't need it" determination is made — even a general description of the criteria or process, since that's the single biggest evidentiary gap in being able to independently assess the but-for question. 4. Whether JobsOhio or ODOD has ever calculated the return figure net of the opportunity cost of the liquor-franchise revenue itself — what that revenue would otherwise have contributed to the general fund. If that analysis exists, we'd like to see it; if it doesn't, that's useful to know too. We're aiming to publish Version 2 with these corrections and additions. Happy to share a draft of the relevant sections before it goes out if that's useful on your end.

@mpukita Probably best to go with the 2012 number.

Thanks for the responses. One follow-up before we finalize Version 2. On the pre-JobsOhio liquor transfer baseline: you mentioned $275 million as roughly what was being sent to the state previously. We want to cite the right figure, and what we're finding in contemporaneous sources is somewhat different — a 2012 WOSU report on the JobsOhio seed transfer cites $237 million (FY2011 liquor profits), and the state's own FY2012 CAFR shows $92.5 million in net liquor profits deposited to the general fund that year. Could you point us to the source or fiscal year you're using for $275 million? We'd rather cite whatever you're working from directly than guess at the discrepancy. If there isn't a specific source, we'll go with the contemporaneous state financial records we can verify and note the figure you mentioned separately. Appreciate the help getting this right.

Ohio's rise from #34 to America's #1 State for Business didn't happen overnight. It took decades of smart policy, long-term investment, and leaders across Ohio staying committed to a shared vision. The long game paid off. Now we keep building. @JobsOhio

1. Inputs are the executed project numbers. Those are available every month and go back to 2015 here: jobsohio.com/newsroom/repor… 2. See number one. Separately, we share our metric evaluation and expiration report with the ODOD each year. You can see the results from last year cited in the bar charts in this story (using all publicly available data we share): bizj.us/1qpm6g 3. We do this on the front end. If the project is going to happen without incentives, we decline to incentivize the project. 4. It assumes indefinitely and is more for illustration than anything to show potential. 5. The article I shared has it: The consolidated return on investment is 15:1 – for every dollar JobsOhio spends on economic development ($1.98 billion through 2025), $15.25 has flowed back to the state in revenue ($28 billion in taxes + $2.21 billion from the liquor enterprise).

Thanks for the correction — you're right that 15:1 is the current figure, and we'll update our citation to reflect the 2025 combined 14-year study rather than the 2022 report we'd cited. Appreciate you flagging it. Since we're already in the weeds on this: we'd like to properly source the number rather than just take the ratio at face value, and that means looking at what actually went into the model. Would JobsOhio be willing to share the project-level dataset used as inputs to the IMPLAN studies — specifically, for the 4,275 projects modeled, the investment dollars, job counts, and payroll figures as submitted to IMPLAN as "Events"? A few specific questions this raises for us: 1. Are the inputs the originally announced/committed figures, or figures verified against actual delivered outcomes at each project's Data Year? 2. How does the model treat the projects the Auditor of State's December 2025 report identified as non-compliant with their job-creation commitments? Are they included in the IMPLAN inputs at their original committed values, adjusted values, or excluded? 3. Was any "but-for" adjustment applied to any project — i.e., is any project modeled at less than full value because the investment likely would have happened without JobsOhio's involvement? 4. Do the "annual contributions, 2025 forward" figures assume the underlying jobs and payroll continue indefinitely, or is there a decay/attrition assumption for companies that downsize, relocate, or close? 5. Is the opportunity cost of the liquor-franchise revenue — money that previously went to the state general fund — netted against the benefit side anywhere in the return calculation, or is the ratio purely gross modeled tax benefit divided by JobsOhio's own spending? We're not asking these to be difficult — an IMPLAN study is only as good as what's fed into it, and right now the inputs aren't public, so there's no way for us or anyone else to independently check them against actual outcomes. If JobsOhio is confident in the number, publishing the underlying project data would let outside researchers verify it rather than take it on faith. Happy to talk through this by phone if that's easier. 614-499-0599 is my mobile number. Cheers!

JOBSOHIO MOVES BILLIONS in liquor-profit revenue toward economic development every year — and claims a ~17:1 return for Ohio taxpayers. But can that number actually be verified? Our Research Center's newest white paper lays out a framework for answering that question — and shows exactly what's missing from the public record today. 📄 "The Ledger Behind the Deal" — Coming Monday July 13th from Ohio Common Ground Descriptive research. No endorsements. No ratings. GETTING OUT FACTS like this is what we do. If you're interested in getting the whole story, all the facts, check out our website. If you like what you see click the gold "Join Founding List" button to allow us to keep in touch. Link in replies below. Thank you.

@ohiomatt @L_J_Cool_J1 Apples and oranges. We focus on 10 traded sectors of the economy. That is our mission, not growth of the whole jobs ecosystem.

@L_J_Cool_J1 Look, you can't fault Ryan for doing job he gets paid to do. I don't get paid to be pro- or anti-JobsOhio. I look at data then call balls & strikes. Data unequivocally shows Ohio job growth has gotten weaker longer JobsOhio has been operating & JobsOhio wins even when Ohio loses.

🧵(thread) Ohio GOP establishment running coordinated narrative to distract from IG ethics complaint filed, so their buddies at CNBC run cover with meaningless puff award and naturally journalists ignore it. Meanwhile, I ratio’d DeWine, Nauseef, and Faber so hard that JobsOhio’s VP of Marketing & Communications felt the need to jump in and defend the spin. That speaks for itself.

@ohiomatt @L_J_Cool_J1 @JobsOhio @mpukita Wow, that escalated quickly. I think I’d prefer to go live my life in this incredible state. Have a good Saturday, Matt.

@RyanSquire @L_J_Cool_J1 @JobsOhio @mpukita Seriously Ryan? Net percentage growth normalizes population among states so can do apple-to-apple comparison, or did your 1st reg manager Michael Scott not tell you that? Big states in raw numbers will always out do small states so normalizing allows true view. Die on that hill..

🚨Quick reminder OHIOANS: ⚠️@RyanSquire’s replies are NOT legal disclosure. @JobsOhio is a quasi-private nonprofit… not required to be honest or transparent with the public like actual government agencies. No open meetings law, limited public records obligations, and heavy reliance on “proprietary” secrecy. That’s why it’s IMPERATIVE we push back on their PR spin. • ORC 187.01 – Creates JobsOhio as a private nonprofit corporation (not a public agency). • ORC 187.03 – JobsOhio is explicitly not considered a public office or public body for purposes of public records and open meetings laws. • ORC 187.04 – Limits public oversight and reinforces its quasi-private status. CC: @_whitneywebb @markgoodw_in @BBessolo @KimGeorgeton @mh4oh @martyschladen @ohiomatt

My first regional manager out of college said, “don’t tell me about percentage growth, you don’t put percentages in the bank.” Our growth rate percentage is lower bc we’re already so big. And like I said, we aren’t perfect and there’s more to do. But the intentional focus on the worst things instead of what’s possible is harmful.

@L_J_Cool_J1 @RyanSquire @JobsOhio @mpukita State Economic Outlook ranking NEVER matching its Economic Performance ranking (mattamayer.substack.com/p/the-ohio-pro…), ignores facts on ground. Why is Ohio’s job growth since pandemic #39 if we’re are #1?

@ohiomatt @L_J_Cool_J1 @JobsOhio @mpukita I understand it doesn’t fit your narrative but jobsohio.com/newsroom/news-…

@L_J_Cool_J1 @RyanSquire @JobsOhio @mpukita Instead, Ohio hasn’t seen 100k job growth since 1997 and Fortune 500 have left. Plus, population since 2010 has been stagnate—do people not vote w/ their feet? Where is large surge of non-Ohioans moving here every year b/c Ohio is doing so well? CNBC, like ALEC’s Rich State, Poor

"Offering unparalleled access at unrivaled costs, Ohio is America’s Top State for Business in 2026. It is the pinnacle of a long climb for the Buckeye State...Today, it is a magnet for growth, capital and innovation, truly living up to its slogan, “The Heart of it All.” @CNBC cnbc.com/2026/07/09/ohi…

Well, we were 34 in 2010, and have gotten better almost every year. In the world we work in, CNBC is one of the most highly regarded, to the point where other surveys use the CNBC ranking as a metric. 1 is better than 5, which is better than 15, which is better than 25, and they’re all a step up from 34. Progress over perfection. But like I said, we are going to keep working harder.

@RyanSquire @L_J_Cool_J1 Please explain how that survey, specifically, shows that Ohio is on the right path when other highly regarded rankings (perhaps even much more highly regarded than CNBC) show Ohio not necessarily "on the right path" or don't provide any kind of trajectory direction at all?

🚨 OHIOANS: 🧵Ohio just got ranked #1 for corporate occupation/dictatorship (especially if you factor in the Anduril amendment)… and the entire Ohio GOP establishment is pushing it like it’s a flex. CNBC legacy media cover and all. 🚨Do NOT be fooled: “Business” here means corptocratic colonization… public resources, policy, and subsidies funneled to insiders while taxpayers pay and lose oversight. This is classic coordinated establishment narrative control: DeWine, JobsOhio, Ohio GOP leaders + candidates, Pickaway Progress Partnership (P3), and even Kasich all blasting the same “#1 State for Business” CNBC story the same day. Pure PR cover for the grift. Context: Dem AG candidate John Kulewicz filed an ethics complaint with the Ohio IG over JobsOhio Chair Josh Rubin (AEP lobbyist). JobsOhio’s $100M Energy Opportunity Initiative (gas + SMR/nuclear) lines up perfectly with AEP/data center interests. Layer on HB 15’s private microgrid/self-power systems (third-party ownership, bypassing utility rules) + HB 862 to let monopoly utilities like AEP own/operate small nukes with ratepayer-backed financing. OMA calls it a “utility ownership strategy,” not real nuclear development. JobsOhio doles out the grants. Lobbyists shape policy. Same crew claims credit. Closed loop: liquor profits → slush → insiders → political wins. Not organic growth… just the usual grift while the grid strains and bills rise… as our “persuadable” politicians rush to privatize publicly subsidized new infrastructure.

Fact: Under Ohio law, JobsOhio dollars are not public dollars and have not been since JobsOhio paid $1.4 billion to the State in 2013 for the purchase of the exclusive right to sell and distribute spirits in the state of Ohio and to use the net profits for economic development purposes.

🚨🧵Ohio just got ranked #1 for corporate occupation/dictatorship (especially if you factor in the Anduril amendment)… and the entire Ohio GOP establishment is pushing it like it’s a flex. CNBC legacy media cover and all. 🚨Do NOT be fooled: “Business” here means corptocratic colonization… public resources, policy, and subsidies funneled to insiders while taxpayers pay and lose oversight. This is classic coordinated establishment narrative control: DeWine, JobsOhio, Ohio GOP leaders + candidates, Pickaway Progress Partnership (P3), and even Kasich all blasting the same “#1 State for Business” CNBC story the same day. Pure PR cover for the grift. Context: Dem AG candidate John Kulewicz filed an ethics complaint with the Ohio IG over JobsOhio Chair Josh Rubin (AEP lobbyist). JobsOhio’s $100M Energy Opportunity Initiative (gas + SMR/nuclear) lines up perfectly with AEP/data center interests. Layer on HB 15’s private microgrid/self-power systems (third-party ownership, bypassing utility rules) + HB 862 to let monopoly utilities like AEP own/operate small nukes with ratepayer-backed financing. OMA calls it a “utility ownership strategy,” not real nuclear development. JobsOhio doles out the grants. Lobbyists shape policy. Same crew claims credit. Closed loop: liquor profits → slush → insiders → political wins. Not organic growth… just the usual grift while the grid strains and bills rise… as our “persuadable” politicians rush to privatize publicly subsidized new infrastructure.

@mpukita @L_J_Cool_J1 We look at all of them, of course. No one is saying there isn't still work to do, and it's harder to stay at 1 than get there. But a win is worth recognizing, b/c it shows we're on the right path.

@RyanSquire @L_J_Cool_J1

We’ll continue to compete and win to create opportunities for Ohioans who will continue helping companies win with their strengths and grit. And then, Ohioans will do what we’ve done for 200 years, and innovate and make those companies even better.

It takes an incredible team!

Hard work and grit of every Ohioan and leadership with a clear vision, backed by a team of people rowing in one direction is how you become #1. Could not be more proud of our team and our state.

RT @GovMikeDeWine: A major announcement for Ohio is happening at 8:30 a.m. on @CNBC. I'm excited to share this big news with you. Ohio trul…