Ryan Bohl

🔴 Latest: UAE says alleged Iran, Hezbollah-linked network busted al-monitor.com/live-blog/us-w…

WSJ: "Iranian strikes on liquefied natural gas facilities at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City reduced the country’s export capacity by 17% and will take three to five years to repair, the country’s energy minister said. The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas producing trains that are both joint ventures with ExxonMobil and will cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue" wsj.com/livecoverage/i…

Iran has targeted U.S radar systems with some success. An ABC News analysis of satellite imagery and verified videos suggest that at least 10 radar sites used by the U.S. and allies have been struck by Iranian drones or missiles since the start of the war. Patrick Reevell reports. abcnews.visitlink.me/w0-JGa

Energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and UAE have all been targeted by Iran with some form of impact or debris causing fires in them - since the South Pars attack. The rate of warnings in Bahrain also intensified but no indication an energy facility was targeted.

Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

Classic Netanyahu: In Hebrew, he said the war will continue as long as it takes In English, he said that it will end faster than most think

An aspect of the war that is overlooked by many; more Qatari citizens are taking social media to express anger at Arab pundits and journalists going on Qatar-based Aljazeera and Alaraby TV for their support of Iran despite ongoing attacks on the GCC countries. Reports say Palestinian researcher @saeedziad has been arrested by Qatari police. This is something we didn't see during the GCC crisis in 2017

I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: 1) The 90–95% drop in volume claimed by CENTCOM earlier in the month was probably a temporary lull as Iran repositioned its remaining launchers into hardened sites. Independent satellite analysis suggests that a significant portion of the "80% destruction" claimed by the IDF actually hit high-fidelity decoys. 2) Despite fewer launchers, the lethality per strike has increased. Iran's shift to cluster warheads has allowed a single missile to impact multiple locations simultaneously, compensating for the lower volume of launches 3) Iran has successfully set up mobile, underground units able to fire at steady rates. Iran used that quiet period to move their remaining ~100-120 heavy launchers into "Super-Hardened" facilities 4) Iran is utilizing its Zolfaqar and Dezful road-mobile launchers. These units move from hardened tunnels to pre-surveyed launch spots, fire, and return underground in under 10 minutes, often before coalition drones can re-task for a strike. 5) Because these launching units are decentralized, it is very hard for US and Israeli intelligence to get info on them. Israel and the United States do not have an answer to this problem. That is why they are trying escalation on energy sources instead. But that is backfiring.

Pearl GTL has been hit – and is now offline. This cannot be understated. Pearl is not just another facility. It is the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant, one of the most complex and capital-intensive energy projects ever built. Operated by Shell, it taps directly into Qatar’s North Field and converts gas into high-value liquid fuels at massive scale: • ~140,000 b/d of GTL products • ~120,000 b/d of NGLs and ethane This is not marginal supply. This is core, high-quality barrel substitution capacity. The project itself is enormous: – $19 billion capex – Fully integrated from offshore wells to export – Two GTL trains online since 2011 – One of Shell’s top three assets globally by value And now it’s offline. This is a structural hit, not a headline. What makes Pearl even more critical is not just scale – it’s what it produces and how it reaches the market. Shell’s downstream and global supply chain is a key advantage in monetising these specialised GTL products. Much of the base oil output feeds directly into Shell Lubricants, anchoring a high-margin value chain. The slate is unique: • ultra-clean diesel and kerosene • naphtha for petrochemicals • n-paraffins and premium base oils QatarEnergy also plays a central role in marketing, with years of experience placing GTL products into global markets. And Pearl is not just big – it is exceptionally reliable. Known for uniform, high-quality output, it has carved out premium niches: – aromatic-free fuels used in urban environments like the Paris Olympics – high-performance drilling fluids that helped Shell capture share in the US Take this offline, and you don’t just lose barrels. You lose specialised molecules, premium margins, and deeply integrated supply chains. At a time when LNG is disrupted, crude flows are constrained, and refining systems are under pressure, this removes one of the most sophisticated conversion hubs in the global energy system. The market is not just tightening. It is losing quality, flexibility, and resilience – all at once. 🛢️

Providing an update on the damage from the missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City H.E. Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi: The missile attacks reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue - Extensive damage to our production facilities will take up to five years to repair and will compel us to declare long-term force majeure QatarEnergy expects the damage to its Ras Laffan Industrial City caused by missile strikes, which occurred on Wednesday 18 March 2026, and in the early hours of Thursday 19 March 2026, to cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia. Providing an update on the damage to the facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said “I am relieved to confirm that no one was injured by these unjustified and senseless attacks, which weren’t just an attack on the State of Qatar but attacks on global energy security and stability. This was an attack on all of us who stand for development and human progress that is sustained by a fair, reliable, and secure access to energy.” The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) producing Trains 4 and 6 totaling 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production, representing approximately 17% of Qatar’s exports. Train 4 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (66%) and ExxonMobil (34%), and Train 6 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%). His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said: “The damage sustained by the LNG facilities will take between three to five years to repair. The impact is on China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.” The attacks also targeted the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility, a production sharing agreement operated by Shell, that converts natural gas into high-quality cleaner burning drop-in fuels and produces base oils used to make premium engine oils and lubricants, and paraffins and waxes. “The damage caused to one of the two trains at Pearl GTL is being assessed and is expected to be offline for a minimum of one year” His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi added. It should be noted that there will be a loss of associated product production due to this outage as follows: · Condensates: 18.6 million barrels which is around 24% of Qatar’s exports · LPG: 1.281 MT which is around 13% of Qatar’s exports · Naphtha: 0.594 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports · Sulfur: 0.18 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports · Helium: 309.54 MCFA which is around 14% of Qatar’s exports His Excellency the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy paid tribute to the Qatari military and security forces and to the energy sector emergency response teams whose courage and extraordinary professionalism ensured the situation was contained quickly and safely. #Qatar

NEW: US allies do not see a realistic way of reopening the Strait of Hormuz without ending the war. G7 countries have been discussing how they could help Trump. There are conversations about a framework for Hormuz security. The UK has sent military planners to the US for talks. But the reality is these conversations are at a very early stage and US allies are not looking at sending naval assets until the conflict eases. US allies are yet to be convinced there is any credible military plan to reopen the strait. The UK has been in talks with Lloyds of London about insurance products and prices when the situation calms. But even then insurance is not seen as the big issue - it is safety. It marks a widening disconnect between the US and Europe over the war amid concerns Trump ultimately doesn’t have a plan. Meanwhile energy prices are soaring, bonds tumbling and interest rates are set to rise. With @EllenAMilligan @golnarM >> bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

New Reuters-Ipsos poll of the Iran war: 37% approve 59% disapprove reuters.com/world/middle-e…

“I woke up this morning and thought, ‘No, please no,’” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a former head of gas analysis at BP (...) “This has always been my nightmare scenario, my Armageddon scenario, the one I didn’t want to happen.” ft.com/content/5b66d9…

(Reuters) - Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles after 20 days of U.S.-Israeli air attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a news conference on Thursday. "We are winning, and Iran is being decimated," Netanyahu said, noting that Iran's missile and drone arsenal is being massively degraded and will be destroyed. "What we're destroying now are the factories that produce the components to make these missiles and to make the nuclear weapons that they're trying to produce," Netanyahu said. Netanyahu did not provide evidence for his claim that Iran no longer had the capacity to enrich uranium.

" after the war is over ... political risk surrounding the Gulf will cause structurally higher prices in many sectors, boosting inflation rates and degrading the appeal of further investment in the Middle East." washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…

SCOOP: Marine Corps F-35Bs are set to deliver in Lot 17 without radars due to delays with the APG-85. Starting in Lot 18, all F-35s delivered to the U.S. military will be awaiting a radar. With @michaeldmarrow and @Diana_Stancy : breakingdefense.com/2026/03/exclus…

Dubai tourism reels from Iranian missiles ft.com/content/113379… via @ft

"The cost of replacing the first four days' worth of munitions would be $20bn-26bn. The problem, however, is more to do with scarcity than cost. America is thought to have used more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the opening days of the war, but the Pentagon had planned to buy just 57 new ones in the current fiscal year. There have been no deliveries of THAAD interceptors since 2023 and the Pentagon has not placed any new orders this year. A puny 39 interceptors are slated for delivery in 2027—six years after they were ordered." economist.com/briefing/2026/…

State notified Congress today that it's greenlit the following sales: • UAE − F-16 Munitions and Upgrades • UAE − Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System – LIDS • UAE­ − Long Range Radar for THAAD • UAE − Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles • Jordan − Aircraft Repair, Return, and Spares • Kuwait − Air and Missile Defense Radars

BREAKING: KLM cancels flights to Riyadh, Dammam and Dubai until mid-May 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/fs4nzb?update=…