Shraddhs

I’m going to stick my neck out and say we’re now at the end of the war - or at least at the beginning of an actual, implementable deal that will reshape the Middle East. If Donald Trump goes to meet Xi Jinping next week (unless it’s postponed), that’s the signal that larger goals are being delivered. Because just a year ago, when Trump–Xi met, it looked like China had won - rare earths, manufacturing, green energy. But in a year, the US through its corporates and system control, has taken the nerve center of global energy choke points. It’s shown it’s the only stable LNG and oil supplier; everything else, if geographically concentrated, can be disrupted in conflict. Makes two contenders equally placed in leverage, which is much more conducive to an actual deal. Now layer the macro: once oil and commodity prices stabilize, that opens the window for rate cuts. And behold….Fed has a new chief replacing ‘higher rates for longer’ Powell. But for that, the war has to wind down first. At the same time, the global energy map has already shifted. Saudi Aramco (Motiva, potential Venezuela, MidOcean), Mubadala Energy (Thailand, Indonesia), QatarEnergy (Golden Pass and beyond), XRG (Rio Grande) - the Gulf is hedging across the Western Hemisphere and globally. On the ground, proxies and the IRGC were the key risk and they’re being contained: Hezbollah is degraded, Houthis haven’t meaningfully intervened (deal with Saudis seems to have held), Hamas has honoured the ceasefire. Lebanon still needs closure. IRGC seems more moderated:) In Israel, pressure is building on Benjamin Netanyahu from Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Even globally, alignments are shifting - look at Viktor Orbán ousting, the last major supporter of Netanyahu. Add to this a gradual shift from permanent US bases to a lighter, flexible footprint and economies like Syria reopening, with players like Emaar stepping in. Very possible something concrete materializes soon - whether it will be preceded by a closing violent act.. we will have to see. Smaller theatres may continue, but the larger reset seems to be in motion. Consequences for the world order are however just beginning.

Let me play the devil's advocate - the UAE has never had any direct issues with Israel, as you said.... No land border, no direct hegemonic clashes or even ideological ones. Their population seems to be ok with the Abraham Accords. Why should the UAE be held hostage to the region's problems with Israel?

@WXt0r @ALAwja_ تركيا و مصر عندها علاقات بسبب الضغوطات السياسيه من الناتو من جهة تركيا و من اميركا من جهة مصر. الامارات تحالفها مع الصهاينه كان بشكل راديكالي و ميكافيلي و خدمة اجندات في المنطقه انت ما تملك حدود مع اسرائيل ولا انت تحت ضغط اوروبي امريكي .. انت طبعت فقط لأضعاف السعوديه

الإماراتي يطالب الدول العربية والإسلامية بالاتفاقيات الإبراهيمية أكثر من الإسرائيليين في منصة X، لماذا؟

@hashurtag You should not cut off your face to spite your nose.

One of the best responses to Trump right now by the GCC would be for UAE & Bahrain to announce or threaten they are exiting the Abraham Accords. But that comes with a LOT of geopolitical and security costs. While not the step to take now, it will be a brave one and will put Trump in an extremely uncomfortable space.

Orderly? Not at all. This has been anything but orderly — from the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2019, to the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, the systematic degradation of proxies across the region, attacks on energy infrastructure, Syrian leadership change and direct pressure on Iran’s IRGC itself. Entire states hosting Iranian proxies have been destabilized in the process. But what is happening is a transition that’s entering its later phases. I think people often misunderstand U.S. motivations because analysis gets clouded by either hatred of the hegemon or the desire to see it fail. But if you actually want to understand American grand strategy, The Next 100 Years by George Friedman is useful reading. It also helps to stop viewing countries as unified actors. Iran is not just “Iran.” The U.S. is not “the U.S.” They’re ecosystems of competing institutions, security establishments, business interests, ideological blocs, and political coalitions - all fighting internally for influence.

@shraddhs @MarioNawfal There is no orderly transition. It is a bit like saying "Operation Barbarossa" or Pearl Harbour were orderly transitions. The US *may* exit the Middle East but it will not be because they want to.

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Iran is already rebuilding and it's happening faster than anyone expected. Despite CENTCOM's claim that 90% of Iran's defense industrial base was destroyed, updated intelligence tells a different story. Around two thirds of Iran's missile launchers survived and have already been redeployed from underground tunnels. Israeli estimates say Iran is rebuilding missiles, launchers, drones and air defense systems in improvised underground facilities, using surviving parts, Russian support and smuggled Chinese components. Drone production could be restored within months. Missile production significantly expanded within a year. The strikes degraded Iran's capacity. They didn't eliminate the knowledge, the supply chains, or the will to rebuild. Those are still very much intact. Source: Israeli Mako, Israeli defense officials, CENTCOM

@Turne12860Aidan @MarioNawfal That’s what they say to anyone with contrarian opinions😀. I genuinely hope I am right not becoz of my vanity- but because then it means ME is heading in the right direction. If it’s your way then it is doomsday all the way. Let’s see

@shraddhs @MarioNawfal I was going to say that you were misinformed. I now see that you are totally deluded.

At some point, reconstruction has to be financed -whether by Gulf states or China. Charges on SOH can be a convenient ramp off to conclude negotiations, though the wording will have to be used carefully. But to be honest, post-1945 “freedom of navigation” order in key waterways was underpinned by overwhelming US naval and air power, supported by its satellite and intelligence architecture. If the US has decided to retreat from its global role, then Hormuz is just the beginning of the end of 'freedom of navigation'.

🚨UPDATE: IRAN WILL BE ABLE TO CHARGE A FEE IN HORMUZ, WILL HAVE SANCTIONS LIFTED ON THE SALE OF THEIR OIL, WILL HAVE BILLIONS UNFROZEN, AND THE WAR IN LEBANON WILL END IN RETURN, THEY WILL MAKE PROMISES TO CONCEDE ON THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND REMOVE THEIR ENRICHED URANIUM IN A FUTURE AGREEMENT If true, this is a massive win for Iran! (This comes from sources close to the negotiations)

No buddy - this transition has been in motion for years, and every major actor is maximising its strategic gains. Iran has the most to surrender - proxies, nuclear leverage, and parts of the old regional order - which is why it needs to project strength (thus the media narratives are working to promote that). The US wants to exit their responsibility of providing security to the region- its overwhelming quest for hydrocarbons that drove its interest in destabilising ME is gone. The Gulf economies are anchoring this transition, so they will be the primary beneficiaries of reconstruction in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran & Israel. China’s interest is straightforward: a stable Middle East that secures energy, minerals, trade routes, infrastructure expansion, and future AI and tech supply chains, especially linked to Africa’s demographic rise. Just the top of the lid - many other countries will benefit from Build Back Better contracts. Just wait for a couple of months- Syria-type model will be emulated across the Middle East.

@shraddhs @MarioNawfal That is where you are wrong. This is Chess not Chequers, let alone Poker or Roulette. Iran knows exactly what it is doing. That is why they have won the PR battle. The only objective is defence. Repel the invader. Wear him down with his own stupidity. It seems to be working.

My humble observation- There were once many radical ‘Islamic’ terror groups across the world. They served a purpose just like the ‘radical Zionists’ around the world did. Once the utility weans off - in this case, to keep the Middle East de-stabilised for hydrocarbon control & ‘forever wars’ weapon selling & reconstruction contracts - the narratives shift, and groups become redundant/downsized to local threats. I believe that is what is happening with radical Zionism across the world.

@SimonDixonTwitt There’s always one piece of the puzzle you leave out and that’s the 5 million psychopaths living in Israel and the millions of radical elite Zionists around the world. Who is going to restrain them? Who is going to force the oligarchs, the state and the people to surrender? NoOne

🇮🇷🇺🇸 EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN PEACE DEAL: 1. Extension of the Iran war ceasefire for another 60 days 2. Strait of Hormuz reopened for the 60-day period 3. Iran allowed to freely sell oil during the period 4. The US would lift the blockade on Iranian ports and unfreeze some Iranian funds 5. The US would issue certain sanctions waivers on Iranian oil 6. The draft MOU includes a statement that the war between Israel and Lebanon would end 7. Negotiations would then be held regarding Iran’s nuclear program This MOU was likely already signed at the beginning of this month and the rest has been more theatrics for off-ramp exit narrative and market manipulation purposes. The multipolar transition is almost complete. The bond market has spoken. It’s no longer listening to market manipulation. The US Suez Canal moment is coming, but there may be one more theatrical “escalate to de-escalate” cycle to give Trump the Hollywood movie ending he may have requested during the negotiations. Enjoy the theatre, if it were not so tragic. But that’s how empires are shrunk to regional powers instead of WW3. You’ll be told it was Israel or Trump 5D chess, when it was the military industrial complex handing over the Middle East to the financial industrial complex, GCC & BRICS. In my opinion, Israel regime change within the next year next. By design.

@audaciousM__ I’d like to see that - wonder if God would consider these acts as compensation enough for destroying and destabilising Afghanistan.

Asim Munir wants to save Muslim countries. No wonder Israel and India hate him!

Dubai at it’s peaceful best:)

@realbswollocks @DailyIranNews Absolutely. Infact this entire fear psychosis is based on the fact that the UAE & Gulf can’t defend themselves. Twitter warriors are taking restraint for weakness though I know Iran will not.

@shraddhs @DailyIranNews Who needs ozempic when we are constantly running in fear? 😂

Leave the UAE immediately!

@MOSSADil GPS jamming has been a recurrent feature since this all started in the UAE. Ask any of us in Dubai, sometimes we drive like in Toy Story:) Not sure when we should take it as a sign of military escalation. Also massive might be an overstatement.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS—The UAE 🇦🇪 is reportedly facing widespread GPS and navigation jamming, including severe disruptions at Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi. GPS jamming is often a sign of looming military escalation — disrupting navigation, precision weapons, and regional air operations. The timing is notable: • Trump reportedly held a national security meeting on a possible “decisive” strike • Iran warned of a “third version of combat” • Western Iran airspace was closed • The UAE already hosts Israeli air defenses and has previously been targeted by Iranian missile attacks If another wave of strikes is coming, the Gulf may be the frontline of Iran’s retaliation.

Buddy - if it is, it is....Dubai is home, where should I leave and go? In fact, people gleefully, almost sadistically, posting about leaving Dubai, Bombing De-salination plants and cutting internet cables - should be the ones to introspect. Supporting acts of violence against civilian populations is terrorism.

@shraddhs @DailyIranNews No seriously, this time its going to be different

@samlee31624987 How about you stop judging other countries’ foreign policy and mind your own business?

How about 🙋🏽‍♀️, stop cooperating with the United snakes and Israel 🇮🇱 hell

That’s so amazing. Dubai is that kind of a city - there is no place for complacency only growth and unleashing your potential. I think initially it was because people came here to escape persecution/conflicts, to give better lives to their families back home or break away from the restrictions that home countries put on them. And then it just became a fabric of the city - risk taking, hard work, multiple gigs and the constant ‘what’s next’.

From Emirates cabin crew… to one of Dubai’s favorite Korean cafés 🇦🇪✈️☕️ Jennifer Hsu’s story started with Emirates, flying between cities and seeing the world from above the clouds… But her real dream was waiting for her in Dubai. In 2019, she left aviation. In 2020, she started her business from her home kitchen… Korean cakes, handmade work, and a passion that slowly became a known name. Today, her café Gato is one of Dubai’s beautiful Korean cafés, with branches, customers, and success. This is the UAE… Not just a place to pass through. Here, every idea can begin, and every dream can find a city that believes in it. 🇦🇪

@jackprandelli That destroyed 12.8 mtpa - 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity is being substituted by Golden Pass LNG terminal in Texas that is currently exporting at 3x prices. And guess what….it is 70% owned by Qatar Energy.

🚢 3rd Qatari LNG tanker is transiting Hormuz this one heading directly to China. The diplomatic and physical signals are moving together. The Al Sahla left Ras Laffan and is expected at Tianjin's LNG terminal by June 14. 211,842 cubic metres of LNG. The first 2 Qatari LNG transits since the war began went to Pakistan under government to government deals, approved by Iran to build confidence in peace talks. This is the first heading to China. A commercial cargo, not a diplomatic gesture. The timing is not coincidental. A Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday, coordinating with the US to resolve outstanding issues toward a ceasefire. Ships moving through Hormuz and diplomats moving through Tehran are part of the same process. The scale of Qatar's problem hasn't changed. Iranian attacks destroyed 12.8 mtpa 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity. Repairs: 3 to 5 years. QatarEnergy's CEO said so directly. 3 tankers through Hormuz in nearly 3 months is a trickle against that backdrop. But trickles are how confidence building works. Qatar is simultaneously running diplomacy and testing the route. Both are necessary. Neither is sufficient yet.

@KUTUBProduction I didn’t attack, I only defended. If you have the right to be disgusted by an entire nationality, I have the right to call out your biases against a country I call home.

@shraddhs I didnt impose nothin, I just said I stopped going there. I have the right to be disgusted by child killing nasty perverts who they call themselves Israelis. I didnt say anything bad about UAE and yall still be attacking !! How about you stop imposing …

I used to go to Dubai every other weekend if not every weekend back in 2021. I stopped going to Dubai since when I saw damn Israelis next to me at the pool. Emirates citizens I love you but I cant stand Israelis and I know how y’all feel about them too and how rude and ugly they are but we all can’t do/say anything.

The same news on loop since the April ceasefire. US threatens to conduct strikes on Iran, Iran threatens the Gulf states, some drones are sent here and there to continue the fear, the markets and bonds soar up, President Trump TACOS and talks of negotiations continue. Move on people.

BREAKING: After the negotiations failed, a source close to Iran's Ghalibaf assesses the war will resume in "the coming hours," with the US expected to conduct "harsh strategic strikes" on Iranian energy and possibly nuclear infrastructure. The Pakistani Army Chief also cancelled his Tehran trip tonight. Iran has stated it would respond by firing hundreds of missiles per day at Gulf energy infrastructure, including water desalination plants, and targeting US bases in the countries that facilitated the attack.

@omranaadil Safety and inclusion…

فقط للإماراتي ومحب الإمارات لو سأُلت أوصف حبك للإمارات بكلمتين… شو بتكون؟ 🇦🇪 نشوف التعليقات