Ryan Featherston

The OECD's TiVA data are cool. And there's an argument that export data overstate China's external dependence. But the conclusion here is not supported. It's worth looking more closely: they do a lot to clarify different narratives about China's rebalancing efforts, the role of external demand, which global markets have been driving it, the key inflection points. The short version: the rebalancing pursued for over a decade stall around 2015, when the big high tech manufacturing push begins, while foreign- and domestic demand move inversely after 2019, and the investment share remains at a level close to its 2009 peak. Note: when compared to other major emerging markets during this same period, the household and foreign components are hugely aberrant, respectively 21% below and 16% above the average. 1/5