Ryder!? retweetledi
Ryder!?
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Ryder!?
@RyderM_WX
🌪️Weather Nerd🌪️ || Coding Enthusiast || Southeast Michigan || Politics: Moderate Right || JESUS IS KING
Washtenaw County, MI? Katılım Temmuz 2023
1.4K Takip Edilen378 Takipçiler
Finally, our meager LLLRs (3.4°C/km below 850mb) is the nail in the coffin. Even if we got a parcel to lift above that inversion, there is almost zero buoyancy to accelerate it. Weak vertical motion means updrafts cannot transfer all that SRH and produce near-surface rotation.
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@wx_macomb @ibraheem_martin Hell even Thursday could be a contender if it fits in with timing
Much stronger low pressure system with less fail modes
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@RyderM_WX @ibraheem_martin My craziest storm in 2025 was 4-29-25. It was kind of strong by me, but a mile away had 60-70 mph and crazy damage. only about 50 mph at my house though as this storm was pretty local. waiting for something genuinely good.
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@wx_macomb @ibraheem_martin Hard to tell
2023/2024’s big one was in August
2025 was in March
Leaning towards either April-May or August though
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@RyderM_WX @ibraheem_martin ive been waiting and waiting it better be soon
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@ibraheem_martin our only hope is that we magically gain sbcape in front of that developing line in NW MI and WI
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@RyderM_WX The one day SE MI is in a bullseye severe risk…
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A lot of clearing is being shown happening on satellite for portions of lower MI. This is a source of destabilization for our severe risk today. Temps are already ranging from upper 60’s to lower 70’s with a lot of surface heating ongoing. #miwx
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If you could go back in time and chase any tornado event ever what would it be?
I may have location bias but I would probably go back and chase Joplin 2011 or Picher 2008…
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@IsaacKrauss_Wx Tips I know and tried:
- Use WRF, not CM1 for simulations larger than a single storm or for simulating past days accurately (it can use any model as anchoring/inital conds), you will need a little WSL/linux knowledge to setup
- Use wrf-python and cartopy to plot sims on a map
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Question for smart people that use CM1:
How can I model something like this over a map from a past date?
OUTBRK - Storm Chasing Simulator@OutbrkGame
OUTBRK Forecaster – Experimental Model Testing #wxtwitter #ILwx at 00z on 2026-03-09 - Valid for Tuesday, march 10 2026 We’re currently running test simulations with our new high-resolution weather model that will power the next generation of storm scenarios in OUTBRK, including the OUTBRK Forecaster game mode where you will be able to chase actual forecast scenarios. Mind blown by this run, it even shows the Fujiwara effect!
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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Convective Outlook (Max Risk: Marginal) at Mar 3, 16:30z spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
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@IsaacKrauss_Wx not sure about mesoanalysis that has RAP nudging but this might be a good source to download RTMA grib2 files in a directory listing to input into QGIS if possible (but I don’t know if grib2 data works in QGIS)
nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/r…
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