Junaid Seria

@TropicalTidbits Hi Levi, will you be releasing a video on Otis' RI? (always enjoy your videos!)

Terrifying situation unfolding in Acapulco, #Mexico tonight as Hurricane #Otis moves ashore with winds of 165 mph, following an unexpected period of rapid intensification. Hoping people have found safe spaces and are able to receive help quickly tomorrow.

Here are the 5 am EDT Sunday Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Ian. Follow the latest at hurricanes.gov

@catinsight Nice! Curious how change in mean and top quartile / decile track lengths in 5 yr bins over time compares with variability | ENSO phase.

@AndrewSiffert I also favour this approach. How did said model compare at 1:20? Eyeballing this graph, I see ~6 events in 120 years xs ~60bn.

@RyanTheMato If your going to adjust the losses for a peril than do it right using an model that will account for exposure now in the past. ⬇️

Here is today’s really bad insurance industry loss graph. This graph is completely wrong because it does not adjust for social economic issues. If you think losses to the insurance industry in 1992 (Andrew) are below $50B give your head a shake.

@SteveBowenWx Like the 5yr view. Considered how 17-21 period ranks against all prior distinct 5yr periods in HURDAT2 ito CONUS HU landfalls/close bypasses?

#Wanda makes 21 named storms in the Atlantic Ocean this season. Just the fourth season to reach 20 NS dating to 1851. The rolling 5-year sum (2017-2021) of ATL activity ranked: NS: 101 (1st) HU: 45 (T-1st; 2016-2020) MHU: 22 (T-1st; 2001-2005; 2004-2008; 2016-2020)

Fellow catastrophe risk management practitioners, keen to hear your thoughts on our recent work to quantify the potential near-term impacts of climate change on re/insured portfolios. scor.com/en/expert-view…

@grantshapps Can we please remove South Africa from the red list? youtu.be/bYajKrPvUJ8

We’ll also be introducing a new simplified system for international travel from Mon 4 Oct 🌐, replacing the current approach with a single red list 🔴 and simplified measures for the rest of the world - striking the right balance to manage the public health risk as No.1 priority.

TRAVEL UPDATE🔊: we’re making testing easier for travel 🧳💉 From Mon 4 Oct, if you’re fully vax you won’t need a pre-departure test before arrival into England from a non-red country and from later in Oct, will be able to replace the day 2 PCR test with a cheaper lateral flow.

“[Hu]man’s best friend” theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…

#ResilientTogether | With a strong focus on the next 5-10 years, we are assessing the impact of climate change on SCOR and on its clients’ business through a deep study, as Paul Nunn and Maurizio Savina explain buff.ly/33y3lxc

All three seasons with warmer sea surface temperatures than 2020 to date were very active Atlantic #hurricane seasons. Both 2005 and 2017 were extremely destructive seasons as well, while 2010 spared the continental US, with 0 of the 12 hurricanes in the basin hitting the CONUS.

Tesla Supercharger usage by region

I spent a humiliating amount of time learning how to make animated graphs, just to illustrate a fairly obvious point. “Forecasting s-curves is hard” My views on why carefully following daily figures is unlikely to provide insight. constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/for…

BNP Paribas has modelled what the Vix index might have looked like going back a century.

Watch our visualization to see how confirmed coronavirus cases in the US, Italy, and Spain have exploded in recent weeks. #Echobox=1585338639" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">technologyreview.com/s/615414/the-c…

“If you are irresponsible enough to think that you don’t mind if you get the flu, remember it’s not about you - it’s about everybody else.” Intensive care specialist Professor Hugh Montgomery explains why this coronavirus is different from the ordinary flu.

NEW on coronavirus: many western countries may soon face Italy’s situation Case numbers since outbreaks began in several countries have tracked a ~33% daily rise. This is as true for UK, France, Germany as Italy; the latter is simply further down the path ft.com/content/a26fbf…

According to the official statistics, the coronavirus epidemic in China has been leveling off with more than half of patients already recovered. Only 119 new cases were reported yesterday, all but 5 of which were in Wuhan.

Animated history of Australia's national average temperature and precipitation. The hot & dry weather in recent years is a major factor in making the current wildfires so severe. #AustraliaFires

Are #CMIP6 climate models running hot? * Most models are not running hot * Many hot models poorly reproduce past temperatures * Not all model results are available It is premature to conclude that climate sensitivity is higher than thought! @hausfath thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…

Focus on what you eat, not whether your food is local GHG impacts of food Biggest: 1. On farm (mainly methane) 2. Land-use change Smaller: 3. Animal feed 4. Processing 5. Transport 6. Retail 7. Packaging Less red meat, biggest impact! @_HannahRitchie ourworldindata.org/food-choice-vs…