
Simon Alexander Legge
18.7K posts

Simon Alexander Legge
@SAlexanderLegge
Freeman City London; Liveryman W. Co. Int'l Bankers TradFi→DeFi: Tokenising RWAs: Energy • Infra • Resources Utility x Liquidity = Capital Onwards & Upwards!





today is my last day on @x. thank you to everyone has been part of this journey.




🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT WEEK!! Bank of Japan is expected to hike interest rates to 1.00%. Yes, they’re raising rates AGAIN. Japan hasn’t seen 1.00% in over 30 years. And if you think Japan doesn’t matter for global markets... YOU’RE MISSING THE BIG PICTURE. Let me break it down simply: The last time Japan reached this level, the crash was already forming. In 1994, the bond market got crushed during the “Great Bond Massacre”. Roughly $1.5 TRILLION in value was wiped out. Then in early 1995, pressure kept building. And the yen absolutely EXPLODED. On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY dropped to around 79.75, a historic low for the dollar. Now here’s what most people overlook. Japan pushed rates higher… then had to REVERSE course later that same year. The BOJ cut its discount rate down to 0.50% by September 1995. That detail matters more than you think. Because when Japan tightens into an already fragile system, the impact doesn’t stay contained. Japan is the backbone of CHEAP GLOBAL LIQUIDITY. And it’s one of the largest holders in the world. Japan holds about $1.2 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. So when Japan tightens, it ripples through global funding and capital flows. THIS IS YOUR WARNING. Not just because “rates are rising.” But because the last time we were here, the system was already under strain and things escalated quickly. Markets aren’t pricing this in yet. But they will. I’ve spent 10 years studying financial markets and called nearly every major market top. Follow and turn on notifications. I’ll give you the warning BEFORE it becomes headline news.

Manipulation Consequences begin: Ten Foreign Nationals Charged by Justice Department In An International Operation Targeting Cryptocurrency Market Manipulation OAKLAND – Federal grand juries indicted ten executives and employees of four different cryptocurrency financial services firms (known as “market makers”) for orchestrating fraud schemes to artificially inflate the trading volume and price of cryptocurrencies. Three defendants, including two chief executive officers, were arrested and extradited from Singapore and made their initial appearance in federal court in Oakland today. Employees from the four firms, Gotbit, Vortex, Antier, and Contrarian, have been charged in three separate indictments. The indictments allege that the defendants not only conspired to inflate the trading volume and price of cryptocurrencies but also profited through the sale of the cryptocurrencies at inflated prices to unwitting investors. These so-called pump-and-dump schemes caused losses to investors in the United States and elsewhere. In addition to the three extradited defendants, two others have already pled guilty and were sentenced by U.S. District Court Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín. More than $1 million in cryptocurrency has been seized to date. justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/t…

Warren Buffett sat on CNBC on March 31 and did what he always does before markets break. He said nothing about a crash. He let the numbers speak. $373.3 billion in cash, the largest reserve any corporation has ever held. Thirteen consecutive quarters of net stock selling, the longest streak in Berkshire Hathaway’s history. $187 billion in net sales. And the Buffett Indicator, total US market capitalisation divided by GDP, at roughly 220 percent, exceeding the dot-com peak and any prior reading in the history of the ratio he popularised. In July 1999 at Sun Valley, Buffett told a conference of the world’s wealthiest investors that when the Indicator approaches 200 percent, “you are playing with fire.” The NASDAQ fell 78 percent over the following two years. He did not predict the crash. He described the temperature. The building burned anyway. The Indicator now exceeds 220 percent. And the fire this time is fed by one molecule: methane. The gas that generates 40 percent of US electricity, heats 47 percent of American homes, and feeds half the world through Haber-Bosch. The Hormuz crisis spiked TTF gas 75 percent and Brent crude to $107. Every S&P 500 company whose earnings depend on energy or supply chains is absorbing a war premium the Indicator has not yet priced. The 220 reading was calculated on pre-war earnings. Post-war earnings will be lower. The denominator shrinks. The ratio climbs. Buffett does not predict crashes. He has said it for six decades. “Short-term forecasts are poison.” But he positions for them with discipline no other investor has matched. He bought during the 2008 panic with “Buy American. I Am.” He warned about derivatives as “financial weapons of mass destruction” in 2002, six years before they detonated the global financial system. And on March 31, he flagged Iran’s nuclear programme as a risk to markets, the first time the Oracle of Omaha has connected a Middle Eastern war to his valuation framework in a public interview. The fire extinguisher is $373.3 billion in Treasury bills and cash equivalents. And the building is an S&P 500 where NVIDIA constitutes roughly seven percent of the index, where Oracle’s credit default swaps just exceeded 198 basis points surpassing the 2008 financial crisis peak, where OpenAI closed $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation on the same day the IRGC declared 18 American companies legitimate military targets. The AI trade that lifted the market to 220 percent on the Indicator runs on methane from a chokepoint that is 90 to 97 percent closed, helium from a Qatar facility that will take five years to rebuild, and rare earth minerals processed by the country hosting the peace negotiations. Buffett sees what the market always prices last: the gap between the story and the molecule. The story says AI will change everything. The molecule says the gas that trains the model costs 75 percent more than it did five weeks ago. The story trades at 220 percent of GDP. The molecule trades at $107 per barrel. One of them is wrong. Buffett has $373.3 billion that says he knows which one. The Oracle of Omaha and the Oracle of Hormuz have reached the same conclusion through different instruments. The fire is real. The exits are known. And the man with the extinguisher is not buying. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…




JUST IN: At 6am on March 31, Oracle sent identical emails from “Oracle Leadership” to between 20,000 and 30,000 employees. System access was revoked before most of them finished reading. Eighteen percent of the global workforce eliminated in a single morning. TD Cowen estimates $8 to $10 billion in annual cash-flow savings from the cuts. The same morning, Jamie Dimon went on Fox and Friends and said America must “clean up the straits.” He did not mention that the straits are the reason Oracle needs the cash. Oracle’s five-year credit default swap spread closed at 198 basis points on March 31. An all-time record that exceeds Oracle’s peak during the 2008 global financial crisis. The company that survived the collapse of Lehman Brothers is now registering more credit stress from building AI data centres than it did from the implosion of the banking system. The market is pricing Oracle as a company whose bet is larger than the system’s ability to absorb the risk. The bet is $124.7 billion in total debt, up from $89 billion a year ago. Fifty billion in capital expenditure this year, directed at AI data centres for the $300 billion OpenAI Stargate partnership requiring 4.5 gigawatts of power and over two million NVIDIA GPUs. And negative free cash flow of $24.7 billion trailing twelve months, meaning Oracle spends $25 billion more than it earns while firing the people who generate the earnings. Here is the connection that makes this an Iran war story and not just a corporate restructuring. Every one of those NVIDIA GPUs is manufactured by TSMC using extreme ultraviolet lithography cooled by helium from Qatar’s Ras Laffan, which Iranian missiles struck on March 18. The data centres those GPUs power consume electricity generated by natural gas priced at $107 Brent, driven to that level by the Hormuz closure the war created. Oracle is borrowing $124 billion to build infrastructure whose two critical inputs, chips and power, are both priced by the war. The layoffs are not about efficiency. They are about converting human salaries into cash to service debt on machines whose operating costs are rising with every day the strait stays closed. Oracle’s bondholders have filed a class action lawsuit alleging the company concealed $18 billion in additional borrowing when it issued notes in September 2025 for the Stargate deal. Moody’s rates Oracle Baa2 with a negative outlook. S&P rates it BBB negative. Both are one notch above the threshold where downgrades cascade, borrowing costs spike, and the $553 billion backlog that justifies the entire bet becomes harder to finance. The backlog is real. $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 325 percent year over year, anchored by OpenAI and US defence contracts including an $88 million Air Force Cloud One task order. But backlog is not cash. Cash is what Oracle needs today to service debt priced by a credit market that just recorded the widest spread since the company was founded. Oracle fired 20,000 people on the same morning the CEO of the world’s largest bank said the strait must be cleaned up. The strait funds the oil that powers the data centres that required the debt that necessitated the layoffs. Follow the chain far enough and every severance email traces back to a chokepoint 39 kilometres wide. The AI revolution is being financed by the war it cannot afford. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…







BREAKING🚨 : A Harvard Scientist claims that the precise mathematics behind antimatter prove that the universe was designed by God. (TIMES)




Comparison between current 💩💩 show and Covid 19 Covid 19 became obvious to me and many other by mid January 2020. I was running rates and credit in Singapore for an Australian Bank and told my traders to pull the plug, sell everything in inventory. I put a lot of bearish positions for myself and market rallied against all that until late February. Everyone started to question me... I told them I know how to trade a hurricane and to leave me alone. Normal people trade day by day... for example when I told you to short the bond, I see someone posting me if I saw the bond auction... who cares? Normal people do. In normal times it is ok, during an event a day, even 2 weeks is not important. If I cut your arm, it is an event... eventually you will realize it... not feeling it under heavy morphin does not mean anything. During an event check the facts and assumptions. During Covid, the assumption was to rely on news from China... I post a warning against that and got into trouble. Remember there were a few thousand dead in Wuhan... but somehow millions died in the rest of the world. Same presstitutes who repeat Trump's nonsense 10 times a day now, was all up in arms about his correct stance against China. They went to Chinatown to hug people. See how everything tumbled down after Feb 27, 2020... as we started to see some real numbers in Europe, especially Italy. Then with a few weeks, markets went down 35%. FED printed trillions to get it back. You can do that with demand shock but not supply shock. What we face today is much worse than Covid. First of all, we do not know when it will end. Trump followed a rabid dog who sold him a dummy... war was supposed to be over within 100 hours.. instead it had been a month now and Iran has no incentive to talk at all. Even if war ends today, it will take 3-5 years to fix things to get back to cheap energy. Meanwhile it can get worse... entire region can become inhabitable if they hit freshwater plants and/or exchange nukes. World's 30-40% fertilizer source is from this region. It means disaster for poor people around the world, which means political instability in many places. It means a lot of manufacturing bases will be in trouble. Due to expensive diesel, many fishing boats stopped. Flying will be very expensive, which means tourism will be over for a while. Can FED fix all this by printing money? Herd have two problems: Not to understand the severity of the situation and not to understand the fact that FED is useless in this situation. It will not be a V... it will be a sharper move and an L.