Stefan Bauernschuster

.@nfergus asked me: Is economics a discipline in intellectual decline? My response: I don't think so. First of all, I'm not sure it's a proper test of a science to be able to predict imminent events. Geologists and seismologists know more about earthquakes than anybody else, but they can't predict when the next one is going to come. Meteorologists understand hurricanes better than anybody else, but they don't know exactly when or where the next hurricane is going to come. I find the use of the word decline, odd. If you look at the quality of economic forecasts as measured, if you use the fancy statistical term, root-mean- square error, basically how big is your average mistake that's trended downwards through time. So by that standard, economists have a better understanding than they used to. Yeah, I did get it right on inflation, and I think it's a bit of a puzzle why others didn't. I think it probably has more to do with the political incentives of people making forecasts than it does some fundamental intellectual failure of the discipline. youtu.be/Sy-fn5MWFIk?si…

🚨NEW WORKING PAPER🚨The #SpanishFlu was one of the deadliest pandemics in history. How did it affect election results? New paper w/ @MatthiasBlum3 @BAEKaktuell, Christoph Koenig @DEF_TorVergata, @HornungErik @UniCologne (cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_…, cepr.org/publications/d…) Thread🧵

App usage is - contagious (sd increase of roommates’ in-college app usage raises own by 4.4%) - detrimental to academic performance and labor market outcomes (sd increase reduces GPAs by 36% and wages by 2.3%) App restriction policy would boost wages! nber.org/papers/w33054

Euro area growth figures mask significant heterogeneity across countries, says @Isabel_Schnabel at @EuckenInstitut. Addressing the structural headwinds that are dampening growth requires policies that foster innovation and preserve a skilled workforce ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…