Steven Quattry

Frontier markets earnings growth are 'resilient' despite currency volatility cnb.cx/42UNtoS

Great episode. @JacobShap pointing out all the contradictory direct quotes from the president in a span of under 24 hours is : “The war will be a short-term excursion” “The war will continue until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated” “War already won in many ways” “We haven’t won enough” “We go forward more determined than ever in order to achieve ultimate victory” “I think the war is very complete, pretty much” “The war is almost over we are far ahead of our original estimate made that the war would last four to give weeks” Investing is hard! If you aren't listening to Jacob and @Geo_papic during these times, what are you waiting for?

For 80 years, one ounce of gold bought you on average ~15 barrels of oil. Last month it bought 82! Since the 1940s, the price of gold vs price of oil was fairly stable and mean-reverting relationship. It would wander a bit, but broadly stayed in a range between 10 and 25 barrels for an ounce excluding COVID. In 2025, the gold oil relationship broke out above 30, then 50, then 70. Just last month, you could have handed over a single ounce of gold, in exchange for 82 barrels of oil! Yet markets have a habit of gravitating back toward reality. Today's 53 barrels per ounce of gold is still far from the long-term norm. If history is any guide, this ratio has further room to decline, whether via falling gold, rising oil, or some combination of both as recent geopolitical events have illustrated

Could not agree with @benthompson more. As AI and robotics rise, and anything can be generated, the things that can't be faked may be what people will work on and pay for as value shifts to real people, real places, and real experiences.

AI and the Human Condition AI might replace all of the jobs; that's only a problem if you think that humans will care, but if they care, they will create new jobs. stratechery.com/2026/ai-and-th…

As @tylercowen has noted, humans will be the #1 bottleneck to AI progress

23/ Maybe none of this bursts the AI bubble, and in truth no one knows how long this can run. The goal here isn't a prediction but rather a framework for thinking about where to look for any deterioration in the broader narrative. I'm a taker of opinions and comments, especially where I've gotten things blatantly wrong!

22/...Lastly, will humans will burst the AI bubble? As @tylercowen has long noted, the real constraint on AI is likely to come in the form of bottlenecks created by humans. Indeed many view AI as an existential threat. I can't say I share this view, but it doesn't mater what I think, it matters what a big voting block of humans think. To this end, a funny/dark read in the New Yorker details the anxiety

1/ There is a bubble in forecasting an "AI bubble." For those keeping track at home, the AI bubble is reminiscent of... The Dotcom bubble The 1840s Railway mania The US Shale boom The Containerization revolution So how could AI actually crack? Let's unpack it 👇