SF

74 posts

SF

SF

@SamF0z

Views expressed are not the same as my employer

London, England Katılım Aralık 2021
319 Takip Edilen37 Takipçiler
Restructuring__
Restructuring__@Restructuring__·
The amount of financial illiteracy on this website makes me so sick. For the love of god, if you think that the S&P/Nasdaq today represents a generational buying opportunity, please read this. Let's take a step back and decompose stock returns. Stock returns are the sum of dividend yield and price appreciation. Dividend yield has historically been between 1% and 2% every year (excluding 2008), so there is not much debate here. Price appreciation is the result of (i) earnings (EPS) growth and (ii) change in price to earnings (also called valuation/multiples). (i) EPS have compounded at ~6% for decades. Some people argue that AI will change the growth algorithm, but let's keep this aside as this is not what is driving the narrative. (ii) Change in multiple: this is essential to understand. If you buy stocks at a very expensive multiple, it will be really hard to make money, unless your earnings really grow quickly. Today, people who are screaming "buy the S&P because it is only trading at 20x forward earnings" are honestly financially illiterate. Plain and simple. They only look at the last 5 years, which has seen extremely elevated multiples, and think that buying at these levels is buying at a cheap valuation. Do you remember when Apollo posted that image saying the next 10 years' returns will be 0% and everyone talked about it for 2 days? Well, let's revisit that image with what has happened since. The S&P has contracted modestly, and the forward multiple is 20.5x today, vs 22.5x in December. What does this mean if we look at historical performance? That the expected return when buying the S&P at this valuation is 2% per year for the next decade. Read that again. The expected return when buying the S&P at this valuation is 2% per year for the next decade! Does this seem to you like a generational opportunity?
Restructuring__ tweet media
Polymarket Money@PolymarketMoney

NASDAQ 100 OFFICIALLY ENTERS CORRECTION

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SF@SamF0z·
@bennpeifert Have you tried your interview questions on any of the most recent LLMs. I find Gemini 3.0 pro is a lot better than prior models.
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
Done working for now until smarter technologists than me figure out why I'm blowing everything up AMA for a little while, it's a beautiful sunset over Las Vegas
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SF@SamF0z·
@volisdead On rare earths any names in particular you like? Any thoughts on $UUUU? On AI thoughts on memory names?
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mediocrebuysideanalyst
mediocrebuysideanalyst@volisdead·
“macro” equity trades I still have conviction on: - Nat gas infra longs - Rare earth minerals longs - AI Power (though this was my largest long and as such focus of the trim)
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SF@SamF0z·
@bennpeifert @Akshat_World I thought this chain was also pretty good explainer on this. x.com/kevinlmak/stat…
Kevin Mak@KevinLMak

Yea, this is the incorrect way to look at it, but very common. A cash secured put is very similar to a GTC buy order with two key exceptions, you CAN cancel a gtc order, and you benefit from a better fill price if the market gaps down overnight. These differences are crucial because it’s what you’re getting paid for (via collecting the premium). So it’s not the “same thing” except you’re collecting a premium, it’s you’re collecting a premium because you’re taking more risk. It’s a small but extremely important difference. Because implicitly (and explicitly in your comment) you’re only selling the put if the premium is juicy enough, for a stock you like. So you’re effectively making an “is IV too high or not” and/or “the stock will go up” assessment when you sell the put. The “I don’t mind owning it anyways” has zero alpha. This is important because many option sellers make it sound like the mechanical strategy of “just sell puts for stocks you would want to own anyways” is a great strategy. It isn’t. The data is conclusive that volatility as a whole isn’t structurally too high. If this is working for you(over a large small size), it’s not the strategy that makes money, it’s your option picking skill. It’s the ability to pick stocks that a) are going up, so your delta exposure is driving profits, or b) don’t go down very much. You’re selling left tails and the realizations in the left tail are smaller than what you’ve sold. But CRUCIALLY, a lot of people use “bad math/accounting” when reviewing their “success rate” of the strategy. To them, a cash secured put assignment doesn’t count as a “loss”, it just turns into a “long term investment.” So if you calculate your strategy win rate it looks amazing because your wins count as “free yield” and your losses get shuffled into another pile. The correct way to assess the strategy is to take all your options trades from when you sold them to their value at opex. What you did with the assigned stock after is a different PL bucket. To be clear, I’m not saying you’re bad at these trades or that you don’t have skill. I have no judgement on that. What I am saying for you (and many others) is there’s an incorrect logic in attribution. Saying “selling cash secured puts” is a great strategy is the same broad concept as saying “buy value stocks” is a great strategy. The strategy isn’t special, it doesn’t work on its own. It requires specific skill to sell the right puts, or buy the right value stocks. Except selling puts has that deceptive “P&L shuffling” to make it appear extra effective.

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Akshat Shrivastava
Akshat Shrivastava@Akshat_World·
Let's say I want to own NVIDIA stock right now. The stock trades at 180$. Rather than buying the stock at 180$ now. I sell a cash secured put at 162$. And, I receive a premium (let's say 2$) If the stock falls to 162$ or below, I buy it (which I was anyways going to at a 10% fall) If it doesn't fall then I collect my 2$ weekly/monthly premium. You don't want to learn it, cool don't learn-- who is forcing you. Just don't unnecessarily crib about "risk-risk" b/c you don't understand things.
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
It’s my largest holding of approx 15 years and I hope it drops another 30% 🌹
Fede Sandler@FedexSTi

Muchos ven caída en $MELI. Yo veo el mismo guion de siempre. No tengo la verdad revelada ni me paga nadie por opinar. Simplemente comparto lo que pienso, porque puedo y porque quiero. Veamos: Dolor de márgenes en el corto plazo → Sentimiento bajista → Venta masiva → Crecimiento sostenido de ingresos → Re-rating a valuaciones más altas. Lo viví en carne propia al menos 3 veces. 2017–2019: Invertían fuerte en logística mientras Amazon entraba agresivamente en Brasil y México. Miedo, márgenes en el piso… y dos años después, MELI tenía el control de la red logística más grande de la región. Entrega mejor y más barato que DHL y FedEx. 2022: Temores por la cartera crediticia y la macro. El mercado descontaba el peor escenario. Fintech explotó, los ingresos siguieron escalando. Hoy el negocio fintech es casi el 45% de la facturación. Cuando me fui era menos de 30%. La cartera de crédito creció al menos 3x desde entonces. 2025: Envíos gratis, presión competitiva de players ultra subsidiados como Temu/Shopee y nuevo pesimismo. Misma historia, distinto año. Cada caída importante vino con una narrativa apocalíptica. Y cada vez $MELI salió más fuerte. La tesis nunca fue “márgenes trimestrales perfectos”. Fue crecimiento estructural en una región subpenetrada. Mientras el topline siga subiendo y el moat se expanda, la historia suele terminar igual: nuevos máximos. El mercado reacciona al trimestre. $MELI ejecuta para la década. Y ahí es donde se gana de verdad. Es la lección más importante que aprendí haciendo IR pasando horas y horas cagandome a palos con los mejores inversores del mundo. Sino pregúntale a Baillie Gifford que empezó a comprar $MELI a 50 mangos en 2010 y casi no vendieron nada. Lindo compounding se mandaron. NFA

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SF@SamF0z·
@PauloMacro Reading that was genuinely painful. The complete lack of understanding is quite staggering.
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SF@SamF0z·
@mvcinvesting 2. $FEVR: Founder-led and has a v strong B/S. At an inflection point after supply chain issues and tariffs squeezed the US margins (US EBITDA margin now 8% vs group average at 24%). Molson Coors partnership and onshoring may normalize margins toward the Group while revenues grow
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SF@SamF0z·
@mvcinvesting A couple of things I’m looking at: 1. $ONON: Solid B/S and founder still involved. They are growing fast (shoes are everywhere). Expect durable earnings growth from higher revenue and expanding margins via the shift to DTC, rapid Asia expansion, and diversification into apparel.
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M. V. Cunha
M. V. Cunha@mvcinvesting·
Let's talk about what really matters. If we get a significant market correction, which stock are you loading up on? Bonus points if: - Under $10B market cap - Outside of tech - Founder-led - Near an inflection point - Solid balance sheet - Exposed to secular trends
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
@SamF0z I have no advantage in recycling plastics or interest in businesses that have a $300m market cap with $1.5b in debt. Instead find a business with a $300m market cap with $1.5b in cash!
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
What should I write my next investing article about? Good ideas only pls. 🙏 🌹
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SF@SamF0z·
@realroseceline What about recycling plastic or providing books to university students? Any thoughts there?
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
@SamF0z Too hard pile for me, I have no advantage in launching satellites that beam cell service to peasants in Africa
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SF@SamF0z·
@realroseceline Maybe.. I don’t own any of them, maybe all for the too hard pile but think all are at least interesting so was curious what you think.
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
People hate it when I say be fearful when others are greedy. Well, any time in history when the S&P500 was bought at a forward P/E of 23, the subsequent ten year annualized return fell between –2% and +2%, 100% of the time. 🌹
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SF@SamF0z·
@AntonKreil @OilGasBTC I’m not sure that’s true. Like assume you save $5 a day for the first 22 years and $100 a day for the remaining time you will average $35 a day but the compounding will be much less and you will only end up with around 600k
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AntonKreil
AntonKreil@AntonKreil·
@OilGasBTC its an average. you could have started on 5 then ended up on $100 today .. get it?
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AntonKreil@AntonKreil·
Imagine being 50 years old in the West and not having at least $1,000,000 in liquid cash savings, then having to justify that to yourself by looking at this spreadsheet. All you had to do was save $35 a day and get 5% interest on average. Basically taking no risk at all and just having some basic level of discipline to put away a measly amount on average per day. .., and before you ask the answer is "no".., I'm not going to send you the spreadsheet. Build it yourself you lazy dumb ass f7ck. I already did 99% of the work for you. The instructions are in the image below from A.I. If you can't do it, learn how to do it. It's these types of habits and skills that will stand you in good stead to become a future multi millionaire.
AntonKreil tweet mediaAntonKreil tweet media
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SF@SamF0z·
@bennpeifert Which futures / forward vol is this chart showing? As in which months does it cover?
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️@bennpeifert·
Worth noting that the vix basis (spread of vix futures over S&P at the money forward vol) is at the high of its ranges of the last few years (barring the brief weird day last August)
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ tweet media
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️@bennpeifert

Okay. In second place, the people wanted VIX Basis. Again, don't say I didn't warn you. The VIX basis relates to spread trades between VIX futures (and sometimes options) and SPX forward volatility. See my thread on the Parplus and Ronin Capital blowup.

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SF@SamF0z·
@bennpeifert Is it too simple to just do long dec atmf straddle vs short the July atmf straddle? I assume you have to delta hedge (probably to a skew delta), roll the positions in expiry periodically as it will become short gamma as it ages and re-strike if you move too far away from ATMF?
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️@bennpeifert·
Junior derivatives trader interview question: suppose I want to buy July-December forward starting at the money volatility in the S&P 500. How do I construct that exposure using options? How do I dynamically manage that position over time to maintain it?
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️@bennpeifert

Very well. Favorite trade right now is short the strip of vix futures versus long S&P forward starting atm volatility, say 2-6 month maturity range. References below, no financial advice etc.

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SF@SamF0z·
@Seawolfcap @OnTheTapePod @VD718 @dmoses34 Latest thoughts on $GLNG. Favourite gold miners - is it better to go up in quality and pay up or lower quality but cheaper valuation. Updated view on Chinese stocks.
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SF@SamF0z·
@realroseceline Curious what you think of $ANF. V strong mgmt / turnaround leading to growth. Profitable. High returns on capital and pretty reasonable valuation (hit seems more based on tariffs / sentiment but exposure fairly low) while also buying back stock.
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Rose Celine Investments 🌹
Rose Celine Investments 🌹@realroseceline·
What company should I look at next? Has to be: • Relatively small • Fast growing • Profitable • Reasonably valued • Strong management • High returns on capital • Easy to understand: I’m not trying to cure cancer or count pi to the 20th digit. No banks, no insurance, no oil and gas, no healthcare, no biotech, you get the point… Ideally something overlooked or underappreciated. Hint: last time I did this I chose $XPEL Drop the ticker and a note on why it’s worth a look. If something catches my eye I will write a post about it. 🌹
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SF@SamF0z·
@bennpeifert I know you mainly focus on equity vol but how do you think about the opportunity there vs similar strats in rates, FX, commodities etc.? Do you think there are more / better dislocations in equity vol land, or just more scalable or just happens to be your area of expertise?
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SF@SamF0z·
@DerivativesDon @albertedwards99 Thanks. This is very helpful. Is it fair to say that the debt ceiling has the larger relative impact? Would the impact of the CTD also exist in the UK for example?
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Derivatives Don
Derivatives Don@DerivativesDon·
@albertedwards99 Just so no one is inadvertently confused, typo on the CTD. It is the May of 2050 bonds, sorry about that.
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Albert Edwards
Albert Edwards@albertedwards99·
BBB describes the US fiscal situation in more ways than one; Torsten Slok at Apollo notes that "The US sovereign CDS spread is currently trading at levels similar to countries that are rated BBB+, such as Italy and Greece". apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spar…
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