Sam Kostabi

"Is The Cycle Over?!?" (my thoughts on ze macro) ... I actually think if we look at the whole situation rationally, the current market conditions make perfect sense. One: Gold is going up like crazy, far surpassing both stonks and crypto. This is because the major sovereigns (ie nation-states) such as China, India, Russia, and to some extent the US itself are all bidding gold up as part of their shift from the era of the UST (ie the US Treasury/Sovereign Bond) being the "world reserve asset". This was largely catalyzed by 1) general US profligacy, and 2) the US seizing Russian fx/treasury reserves a couple years ago, which laid bare the fact that UST's can no longer be considered "neutral" reserve assets. A variety of macro thinkers like Doomberg and Luke Gromen and my friend @noahseidman have all talked about the above at length, but it makes perfect game theoretical sense that- seeing the US seize them in this manner- Russia itself, as well as China and India- would make the calculated decision that they are better off owning more gold and less UST's... Two: US stonks are going up, but not to crazy levels. This is because the US stock market is essentially now an auto-ponzi driven by automatic passive flows from the 401k/passive industrial complex (as Mike Green has talked about for years now). Every single 9-5 normie across the nation has their retirement automatically invested into the top indices every month, regardless of price or any other variable, so of course they keep going up long term. Also the US stock market increasingly serves as the "world stock market" because the global economy is more and more online, and as the best arena for capital formation it makes sense the largest "global companies" like Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, etc are all US companies. This will likely continue until the same dynamic evolves even further and crypto itself becomes the chief arena for capital formation globally. Three: US real estate (and real estate in most developed countries where the majority of properties have mortgages) is still completely frozen due to high rates. There is $37T worth of equity in US residential real estate right now, but it is all essentially inaccessible because nobody wants to do a cash-out refinance at a higher rate than their existing mortgage, nor do they want to sell their home and get a new mortgage at a higher rate, nor do they want to get a HELOC (home equity line of credit) at some ungodly double-digit interest rate. Four: Crypto has bounced back from the 2022 lows that were catalyzed by the rate hike cycle and subsequent unraveling of stuff like Luna and FTX, and has basically just gotten back to 'status quo'. We are about 25% bigger than we were at the peak of 2021, but still smaller than $NVDA and barely 1/10th the size of gold's market cap. The reason we have not had anything resembling a "bull market" is because the macro picture has not yet seen any massive liquidity injections a'la 2021. Most people point to stimmy checks and "everyone being stuck at home" as the main catalysts of the 2021 bull market, but as I have said before, I think it was actually the massive amounts of real estate equity that were being accessed. That is how the proverbial "Cardano dad" watching Hosk videos on YouTube and slamming the buy button on Coinbase got his extra capital for investing last cycle. He either sold his house and reinvested the equity he accessed or else he did a cash-out refinance or else he took out a HELOC. Conclusion With all of the above being the case, the current state of all the asset classes in question makes perfect sense. In regards to crypto specifically, we should see the real "bull market" start in Q2 of 2026 when interest rates finally come down low enough to start "unfreezing" the US housing market. At that point I think we will get about 6 quarters of very positive price action. Until- in Q4 of 2027 or perhaps Q1 of 2028- the hangover from the above froth and the first stirrings of pre-election fears (imagine someone like Mamdani leading in the Democratic primaries nationwide) will trigger a sell-off and another "bear market". As a result, I don't think the "bull market" in crypto is over because I don't think a "bull market" has even started yet. As a result, I will keep accumulating, keep putting in the reps, and keep my eyes on Q2 of next year 🤝 If you enjoyed, please RT and/or let me know your thoughts below!