Ramzi
37 posts

Ramzi
@Scowi_
Financial Markets w/ a dab of Real Estate
New York and Denver Katılım Mart 2013
338 Takip Edilen69 Takipçiler

There is now a bid under commodities that will linger long after the military action ends - @pboockvar @the_markethouse
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Game on.
Another strong rally in Colombia’s largest energy producer.
Now approaching 4-year highs.
Here are a few other similar setups:
tavicosta.substack.com/p/similar-tech…

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Here is below the full text of my Project Syndicate column from October 2024 on why “Israel and Iran are Likely to Escalate”. I predicted then that the current military escalation and that Israel would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and even attempt regime change.
project-syndicate.org/commentary/isr…
Israel and Iran are Likely to Escalate
By Nouriel Roubini
NEW YORK – The conventional wisdom following Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian military facilities in retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel is that the risk of further escalation has been contained. Initial statements from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader suggested that Iran may not respond further, and financial markets seemed to agree, with oil prices falling 5% right after the Israeli strikes (even if they rose again partially following new bellicose statements by some Iranian military commanders).
But this conventional wisdom is likely wrong. Israel’s assessment of the threat posed by Iran has shifted dramatically in the last few months. It is not just Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his right-wing allies’ views that have hardened; key leaders of the center and center-left opposition – such as Benny Ganz and Yair Lapid – also argue that Israel should go further than it did with its recent strikes.
Whether or not one agrees with Israel’s assessment, there is now a consensus there that the Iranian regime represents an immediate, clear, and present danger. With Iranian proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria – continuing to attack Israel, Israeli leaders have concluded that they must address the problem at its source. That could mean targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and eliminating the regime’s top military and political leaders, as Israel has already done vis-à-vis Hamas and Hezbollah. By eliminating Hezbollah’s top leadership and destroying a lot of its offensive capabilities, the Israelis have significantly eroded the deterrent leverage that Iran had over them.
Owing to this radical change in the relative balance of power,Iran has only one effective option left to deter Israel now that even its offensive missiles and other weapons have failed to cause meaningful damage to Israel: a dash to develop its nuclear weapons capability. But since Israel regards a nuclear-armedIran as an existential threat, it would have no other option than to attack Iranian nuclear facilities (as well as the top Iranian leadership) before Iran builds a viable device.
Additional Israeli airstrikes are highly likely regardless of how much restraint Iran shows. While a victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election may give Israel a clearer green light to go after Iran, a win for Kamala Harris may not be able stop Israel from addressing what it perceives as an existential threat.
If Israel does start incrementally escalating its attacks on Iran possibly following new Iranian attacks against Israel, any US administration would inevitably continue to support it, either directly or indirectly. Whether Israel has the capabilities to destroy most of Iran’s nuclear program or precipitate regime change in Iran is irrelevant; even limited damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities could set back its nuclear ambitions by a few years and establish the deterrence that Israel wants.
The likelihood of escalation in the coming weeks and months means that there will be economic and financial risks to manage. A large-enough Israeli strike on Iran could severely disrupt energy production and exports from the Gulf. If Iran gets desperate, it could try to mine the Gulf and block the Strait of Hormuz, while also striking Saudi oil facilities. In this scenario, the world would experience stagflationary shocks similar to those that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1979 Iranian revolution.
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Universities in the World's Top 500:
🇺🇸 USA: 129
🇨🇳 China: 74
🇬🇧 UK: 38
🇩🇪 Germany: 28
🇦🇺 Australia: 24
🇨🇦 Canada: 20
🇮🇹 Italy: 19
🇫🇷 France: 17
🇪🇸 Spain: 12
🇳🇱 Netherlands: 12
🇯🇵 Japan: 12
🇰🇷 South Korea: 11
🇸🇪 Sweden: 11
🇦🇹 Austria: 7
🇨🇭 Switzerland: 7
🇧🇪 Belgium: 7
🇧🇷 Brazil: 6
🇮🇱 Israel: 6
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: 5
🇹🇼 Taiwan: 5
🇩🇰 Denmark: 5
🇫🇮 Finland: 4
🇿🇦 South Africa: 4
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 4
🇳🇿 New Zealand: 4
🇮🇪 Ireland: 4
🇳🇴 Norway: 3
🇵🇹 Portugal: 3
🇷🇺 Russia: 2
🇵🇱 Poland: 2
🇦🇷 Argentina: 1
🇨🇱 Chile: 1
🇲🇴 Macau: 1
🇨🇿 Czechia: 1
🇪🇬 Egypt: 1
🇪🇪 Estonia: 1
🇬🇷 Greece: 1
🇮🇷 Iran: 1
🇲🇽 Mexico: 1
🇮🇳 India: 1
🇲🇾 Malaysia: 1
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 1
🇸🇬 Singapore: 1
🇹🇭 Thailand: 1
🇹🇷 Turkey: 1
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NEW: Israel has announced that they will “fight” Elon Musk after he promised to provide Starlink internet service to Gaza.
In a reply to AOC, Musk vowed to provide Starlink to “internationally recognized aid organizations” in Gaza.
Internet is currently down in Gaza due to Israel’s constant bombardment of the territory meaning emergency lines and communications for journalists is down.
Israel will now “fight” Musk’s decision.
“Israel will use all means at its disposal to fight this,” said Israel communications minister Shlomo Karhi. (Insider).
That’s ridiculous.

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@manunitedcap @BrettWooldridge @DavidSacks Look who is talking with all your fake (debunked) accusations. You’re obviously on the wrong side of history
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@Scowi_ @BrettWooldridge @DavidSacks Congrats, you are part of the reason why palestines are suffering from casualties. By supporting terror acts. (Raping women, beheaded babies, slaughtering and burning people alive)
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Fan Tells Dave Chappelle To "Shut Up", Comedian Blasts Israel, Sparking Walkout, Report Says zerohedge.com/geopolitical/f…
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Today in 1941, thousands of civilians in German-occupied Serbia were murdered in the Kragujevac massacre #WWII
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