Sean Dee

Tennessee / Iowa St (Chicago) Another absolute nut grinder of a S16 matchup with two Top 15 defenses who play an exceptionally physical brand of basketball against two offenses that have experienced plenty of half court struggles at different points of the year. The elephant in the room is Josh Jefferson going down in the first round, and I would assume is still very much a longshot to play. Elite athletes with access to the level of medicine/therapy that they do...these kids can also protoregenerate far beyond the comprehension of our old crusty asses, so you can't fully rule it out. Iowa St didn't need JJ to dispatch the hapless and rudderless Kentucky Wildcats as the Clones won by 19 even with UK shooting...60% inside the arc and 36% from 3 (further Pope damning evidence). That was due to turning the ball over on 29% of possessions. ISU ranks 1st among all P5s (4th nationally) in forcing turnovers defensively with the way they ice ball screens, double the post, and play passing lanes EXCEPTIONALLY well. You know who else has had issues holding onto the ball this year? That would be the Tennessee Volunteers, whose season-long TO% (17.3%) ranked 225th nationally & their 17% TO% in SEC play was 15th best (2nd worst) in the conference. They spent nearly the entire conference calendar ranking last in the SEC in TO% before Mizzou eclipsed them late. But think about that turnover mismatch in even further detail...it's very similar to how Houston eliminates Anderson/Toppin with their scheme. Gillespie is not the biggest guard ever and will have 2 defenders in his face. Every ball screen. Without fail. Ament himself is a guy whose lack of beef underneath means it typically takes him a couple dribbles/seconds to back in from the mid-post. Whether it be on the touch, or on the first dribble, ISU will send doubles at him as well, putting a team with top-heavy 2-man production in precarious spots BUT, with that level of double teams & subsequent back-end scrambling that ISU will undertake, you can beat the Clones on the offensive glass as its tougher to get bodies on guys. And Tennessee has ranked #1 nationally in OREB% for what seems like a few months now. 2nd chance points, without a shadow of a doubt, are the Vols' easiest path to offense in a game where points will be at a premium. Best way to score against ISU? Nab your miss and don't face that defense for a possession. Look at ISU's losses regarding the defensive glass. At Phog they allowed a bad OREBing KU team to nab 36.7% of their misses in a loss. Cincy? They grabbed 41.7% of their misses in an ISU loss. BYU loss? 35.3% (ew). Tech without Toppin? 37.5% in a loss (SUPER EW). They barely beat Baylor early in B12 play b/c the Bears corralled 43% of misses. No doubt this is the Vols best source of offense and a way to score without having to face an extremely stingy defense that they'll likely struggle against It took us FOUR full years, but finally, after 135 games, it may have required Josh Jefferson nuking his ankle to see it, but we FINALLY got 'force-the-issue' Tamin Lipsey. Shot well from 3, initiated a ton of their offense, was efficient getting to the rim, and was his usual demon self at the POA defensively. You can do that against Kentucky, but Lipsey does have some efficiency fall-offs vs Tier A competition nearly every year. It'll be an important factor in deciding this game as Tennessee has an elite on-ball guard of their own who also will be carrying a ton of offensive workload. You show me the box scores of the 2 point guards, and I can probably tell you with decent certainty who wins the game. Winner of that individual matchup puts their team in the driver's seat. If we get last game's Lipsey, I heavily favor ISU as Gillespie is a cardboard cutout on defense compared to Lipsey. But if we get the more passive Lipsey who tries to create for others, ISU is likely behind the 8-ball with their lack of supporting cast sans Jefferson IMO, the ISU offense sets up against Tennessee's defense much better than the other way around. ISU is an elite 3P shooting team (esp w/ the emergence of Batemon late in the year) whose offense already relies a fair bit on drive & kick, although that will almost solely fall on Lipsey's shoulders w/o JJ. Vols will relentlessly send help on paint touches which almost sets up better for the Clones' 3P shooters. With Gillespie & Ament facing double teams all game, you almost hope you see more of the backside floppy actions of Barnes' wheelhouse compared to the ball screen spam you've been pigeonholed into running this year given personnel We are going to see a heavy dose of 3Pointers in this game given the defensive schemes on both sides. Tennessee always packs in the paint & ISU allows weakside 3P shooters to beat them (*IF* you can skip or short-roll the ball to them). In that type of game, you have to favor ISU as a collective given Tennessee not only shot 33% from 3 in SEC play (5th worst in conference), but they also did so at a sub-30% 3PRate in SEC play, lowest in the conference. Yes, the assist rate is high, but again, a ton of that comes from Gillespie on the ball which will mostly be eliminated in this matchup. Vols other path to relieving stagnation in the half court would be the charity stripe (primarily Ament and his Top 100 FTRate nationally). But Iowa St is maybe the best defense in the country at playing as aggressively as they do without fouling. And even if Tennessee gets to the line, they're sub-70% on the year as a team Line is basically right at the KP projection, and 33+ of Iowa St's 35 games had Jefferson included in the analytics. This either implies a discount on Tennessee or that Jefferson plays. I lean the former. But there is no way I can play a 2-man centric team against the defensive principles of an ISU, so I'll probably pass on the side pre-flop especially when you consider the 3P volume we are likely to see & the hot/cold nature of these offenses' shotmaking Likely under or pass if I do anything on the total as these defenses annually carry seemingly 'fortunate' 3P Defensive shotmaking numbers b/c of their length & closeout aggressiveness Love Vols' big man rebounds. Estrella prop has already been juiced but he is in a PHENOMENAL spot as one of their 2 best offensive rebounders with much more minute upside than Carey while also coming off a bad foul game that depressed the look of his box score. You also have the likely kicker that Momcilovic slides up to the PF spot without Jefferson, which is a much worse rebounding version of ISU without their star. I don't see many 3P props listed for this game, and while Gillespie o2.5 has been a money printer for us all year, this is also a much different type of matchup that Tennessee hasn't seen since the played ISU's clone in Houston back in Player's Era. Maybe that game + rest/prep helps them this goaround. Pick out your favorite 3P sniper in this game (at a reasonable price, please) and let it fly, literally and figuratively