Sean Patrick Fallon
17.1K posts

Sean Patrick Fallon
@Seanfallon
The most dangerous mistake is breaking your trading rules.
Mumbai, India Katılım Mart 2009
1.5K Takip Edilen528 Takipçiler
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi

JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon just said a financial crisis is coming.
Bond yields just hit historic levels in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan simultaneously.
The last time this happened was right before the 2008 financial crisis.
And Dimon just confirmed that $5 to $6 TRILLION in leveraged loans are sitting out there right now and the companies holding that debt are going to have a very hard time refinancing at current rates.
The equity values of those companies would be "considerably less" and a lot of those borrowers didn't hedge for higher rates.
Then he said he personally would NOT buy credit spreads at these levels.
The CEO of the largest bank in America just told you he thinks corporate debt is mispriced and he would not touch it with his own money.
Then the interviewer asked about AI and everyone forgot he said it.
Jamie Dimon warns about a recession every single year but this is the first year where the numbers are actually proving him RIGHT:
3 days ago the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.2%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year is sitting at 4.62%.
The US government has $31 trillion in public debt and the average interest rate on that debt is 3.5%.
They cannot refinance a single dollar of it at a lower rate than what they are currently paying. And they have $9.7 trillion in securities maturing THIS YEAR that needs to be rolled over.
Meanwhile the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh was just sworn in on Friday. Traders are now betting there will be ZERO rate cuts for the rest of 2026 and the probability of a rate HIKE is rising.
The Iran war has pushed oil to four-year highs. Inflation reaccelerated in April to the highest annual rate in three years. And private credit defaults just hit a record high with a 9.2% default rate in their US private credit portfolio.
Dimon laid out exactly how this plays out:
He said sentiment can flip overnight and specifically named the crashes of 1973, 1982, 1994, and 2000 and said the setup before each one looked exactly like this.
Everyone confident, everyone buying, liquidity everywhere. Then something shifts and people want cash. And when people want cash they sell risky assets at precisely the wrong time.
Liquidity disappears at the exact moment everyone needs it.
And he also told you where the money is going:
JPMorgan had 35,000 employees in New York when he took over. Now it has 26,000.
Texas went from 12,000 to 33,000.
He said in the 1970s, New York had 120 Fortune 500 companies. 60 of them left in a single decade because of taxes and crime.
And when the interviewer asked about the new NYC mayor raising taxes on the wealthy, Dimon basically told him to his face that the erosion has already started. The capital is already leaving.
So let's put this together:
- Bond yields at 19-year highs
- $9.7 trillion in government debt to refinance this year
- $5-6 trillion in leveraged corporate loans that cannot refinance at these rates
- Private credit defaults at record levels
- Inflation reaccelerating
- No rate cuts coming
- A Fed chairman who hasn't even settled into the chair yet
- The CEO of America's biggest bank saying he would not buy corporate debt at current prices
- And the same CEO quietly moving his bank out of New York
Every single one of these signals was present before the crashes Dimon himself named.
English
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi

@davidgilmour @pinkfloyd I am so sorry for your loss. Condolences to his family.
May his soul rest in peace. 🙏
English
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi

@MinhazMerchant The only real structural support for the stock market is the SIP inflow coming in, which is counter balancing the FII outflow.
To quote Margin Call in the event SIPs slow down...

English

India has dealt with 5 Black Swan events in the last 5 years: Covid, Ukraine, Gaza, Tariffs, Iran. The economy remains resilient. Trade has withstood multiple shocks.
Falling rupee & stock market are transient. To argue India is terminally damaged is bad analysis.
Obviously, economic reforms are overdue. Regulatory overreach must go. Tax for FPIs must be rationalised. Policy must be predictable.
The loss of WB has made it fashionable for some to say India has won elections but lost the economy.
Nonsense.
English
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi

Jane Street's head of technology just explained the full spectrum of how fast their trading decisions are made.
the fastest systems turn around a packet in under 100 nanoseconds. at that speed, if you attached an oscilloscope to the wire going in and the wire going out, you'd see the response start to leave before the incoming packet has finished arriving.
at that speed, you can't use a CPU. you can't use any programming language. you're on an FPGA direct wired to the network. and the decisions you're making are incredibly simple. because you literally can't compute anything complex in that time.
but here's the part most people miss: that's just one end of the spectrum.
Jane Street runs an ensemble of systems operating at every timescale simultaneously. some decisions happen in nanoseconds. some in microseconds. some in milliseconds. some take hours or a full day.
"the right way to build an optimal trading strategy is an ensemble approach. for some decisions you're making very simple decisions very quickly. for others, you're operating at the scale of microseconds, milliseconds. and in some cases, if you can get that decision turned around in an hour, that's totally fine."
the faster you need to respond, the simpler the decision has to be. the slower you can afford to go, the smarter the model can be.
this is why "Jane Street is just a speed game" is wrong. speed is one dimension. intelligence is the other.
English
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi

@Masterji_UPWale Yes, me too
Thats my primary email ID and so far no issues..
English
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi
Sean Patrick Fallon retweetledi

@shaft_drive @BeingKohlii Absolutely, that was a beauty of a delivery, classic inswinger..
English

@Seanfallon @BeingKohlii Making someone like Gordon Greenidge shoulder arms and then get bowled must be one of the most amazing feats in cricket.
English

@SagarH62 So many changes...
Where is Jeff Thompson or Rodney Marsh or Alan Border or even Craig McDermott
English















