TBO

$HON. Posting my pitch on Honeywell. 1/ Buy Honeywell ahead of its planned Q3 2026 Aerospace spin-off capturing a crown-jewel, MRO-heavy aerospace business at an implied ~12x EV/EBITDA.

$NVO $LLY. Another sell-side masterclass by Bernstein: Q1 26 Wegovy pill revenue est. ~DKK561m / ~$90m, divide that by $149 per month (lowest dosage pill price) = ~600k TRx in Q1. However, we already know that Q1 actual IQVIA TRx is 678k TRx and that IQVIA only captures 50/60% of the true TRx. So, in other words, Bernstein underestimates Q1 wegovy pill revenue by ~50%. Also note that we apply the lowest price and not a weighted dosage price (~$249)...

@investseekers Funny, did sell-side not estimate a significant ramp-up day 1 for foundayo as $LLY have built a massive inventory to be ready for launch day? Sell-side also forgets that majority of pills are cash payers/out of pocket.

Jefferies expects $LLY ’s Foundayo sales to pick up when insurance coverage expands in mid May. So far, Foundayo is behind $NVO 's oral Wegovy. In week 3, Foundayo had ~5,600 prescriptions vs ~26,100 for Wegovy in its week 3. Lilly says ~20,000 patients are already on treatment. Despite the slower start, Jefferies still expects strong sales growth later this year.

@MikeFritzell My guess the price is also:, left $6 no tip, right 15$ + tip.

Lunch in Tokyo vs America

@CloisterRes I do sometimes wonder if this bernstein analyst covering lilly is actually paid by lilly. The stuff she writes...

Can’t wait for the Bernstein note defending Foundayo as “so potent at clearing out MASH that sometimes it can accidentally nuke a liver (so potent!). Bullish the international launch which is bigger opportunity anyway.”

Is it normal to have hepatic failures in a new drug launching with under 5000 TRx in the first few week? Asking for a friend.

@internpierre Thanks. Used to work for a big SM in Europe and we were short Ferrari for a while. Deposit, customization % of rev, 2nd hand prices, and the absurdity the market is justifying it as a luxury biz while it is just a car manufacturer validates that it it still a good short

@Sebasti13651557 Sort of. Deposits are generally refundable until allocation is secured. If it’s a custom order, once the factory accepts the deposit is not refundable. You can still not take delivery of the car, you’d just lose the deposit

I spent an afternoon at one of Ferrari's largest US dealers pretending to work in tech. The sales associate told me a new Ferrari 12Cilindri allocation was "just a $60,000 deposit." 87 used cars on the lot. Average client is over 70. What I learned about Ferrari demand $RACE 🧵

Why does Asahi/Sapporo beer taste like piss ex Japan but in Japan it is the best (next to highball).

@internpierre Is the deposit still refundable?

Read the full article here: open.substack.com/pub/internpier…

@ResearchPulse1 @CloisterRes What is this formulation tweaking? Couldn't figure that out. Surely from a commercial standpoint, it is smart to rebrand it to wegovy. Lilly did a good job on keeping one brand name ex US but the pill name is a flop.

Yea May 4 will officially be the day where Rybelsus changes name to Ozempic pill. But it’s exactly the same 3 doses (1.5mg/4mg/9mg) that’s already at the market as Rybelsus (and wegovy pill) But the new high 25mg dose is not yet approved for T2D. That is expected in Q4 and will then immediately launch afterwards.

It is really dumb. But I think “Ozempic pill” does way more numbers than Rybelsus. Like 10x. And I think hearing “ozempic pill” funnels more people to both wegovy oral and Foundayo as well.

IQVIA Wegovy pill TRx was up by 8.1% and thereby contracting the 1.5% drop reported by Symphony earlier today. In my model week 16 is the first week that crossed TRx 200,000 including all online sales that’s not yet captured by IQVIA $LLY $NVO $VKTX

De facto for what? Everything you wrote is irrelevant. Viking can share as much scientific info as it wants, while selling an empty dream to investors, but it cannot do any (pre)-sale marketing to physicians. Until this drug is fda approved (whatever '28/29 timeline that is), this won't have any impact on NVO nor Lilly.

@JCanNuSH @Sebasti13651557 Yes, that's why I said "de facto" ;) This trial was never meant for approval purposes but will provide clinical evidence for label for physicians to prescribe it biweekly/1X/monthly before waiting for extension study post Ph.3

$LLY $NVO there's no oral obesity drug effective enough to displace tirzepatide injectable from its spot as the best selling drug, sales will remain strong with FDA shutting down compounding pharmas $VKTX VK2735 is the next direct competition to tirzepatide but market doesnt care

@breakoutchrts No. The 78week is the phase 3 trial that matters for FDA approval. Your viking fan bois can hallucinate as you much as you want.

@Sebasti13651557 Read my last post, 17.5mg for 31W is a defacto Phase 3, no need to wait for data in '27

@MikeFritzell a good story teller. surprised to see no selfie of him with Charlie?

Actually enjoying the Pabrai talk…

$NVO back from the dead

@Banjo5474969708 @bioinvestor24 this is wrong. $NVO decided not to file/extend this patent in Canada as otherwise the price would have been significantly capped under the PMPRB regulation. This allows Novo to price the drug more freely.

@bioinvestor24 Novo lost patent protection in Canada stemming from an error in paying a small patent maintenance fee in the nation, as originally reported by Endpoints News in 2025. LOL

While $NVO generic in Canada in not a real event for the whole obesity sector as compounders been acting in USA for years, Novo continues to provide ammunition for obesity shorts given its most failed management in pharma history .. should not have an impact on $LLy or future $VKTX business.

$SARO looks interesting at this valuation. LEAPS capacity is ramping up, CFM56 is still a money maker, Carlyle and GIC finally selling down. Stock is going nowhere prob also due to selling overhang, but once this reverts, it should fly (like Singapore Technologies).

@teodorio Try the pool. Magnificent.

The Okura has the most badass lobby I have seen in my life. Looks like a movie scene.

$AAK. Q1 26 call. Very convenient not to providing any 2026 fy guidance. Very defensive answers. Mgmt refers to Chocolate & Conf ebit per kg earning’s resilience but seems to forget that future contracts will be based on today’s lower pricing. When cocoa prices are down -70%, shea butter and palm oil butter (market pricing) will also need to follow as otherwise no economic incentive for FMCG to use cocoa substitutes. Talking to experts in the industry, shea butter market pricing is already down -40% vs LY and this start will to materialize in h2 26/h1 27.

@inglouriouscap 🤣

Izzy Englander setting up Bobby Jain’s new office