Blake Cooper@Coopblake89
For the “you haven’t studied enough…” crowd, below is a post/reply I made when I first got on X after @Strategy Q3 ‘25 earnings call.
By no means did I nail every detail, but I believe you’ll see my understanding of @MSTR @STRC $BTC was, at a minimum, competent:
I watched the entire Q3 earnings report I kept thinking, “MSTR is going to get thrashed in aftermarket trading with this report” I look up the stock, it’s Soaring!?
Here are my takeaways about how the market narrative vs the realty of the report is a contradicting nightmare that is the final canary in the coal mine that this stock is going to crash, would love to know your thoughts:
The claims that Strategy “beat” EPS estimates for Q3 is either an indication of analysts not understanding the company or an intentional deceptive move to influence investors to consider investing in the company.
The ($0.11)/share estimate vs the $8.40+/per share “BEAT” is not an apples to apples analysis. The ($0.11)/share estimates were based off of traditional operating income calcs that don’t include BTC (only their legacy software company).
If you were to compare apples to apples the operating EPS reported was a “meet” of ($0.11)/share. If you look at the GAAP EPS estimate for Q3 (hard to find because the main analysts don’t even calc for it) consensus was between $8ish - $10ish/share (average estimate above $9/share). This means the Q3 GAAP EPS was a “MEET” at best or a “MISS” based off of average estimates.
The fact that most reports are using the operating calc for of ($0.11)/share for the “estimate” with GAAP EPS as the “actual” is, again, an indication of ignorance at best OR intensional deception/misleading information at worst.
Further notes:
Strategy also announced its plans to no longer issue convertible debt because its best for share holders. BS! now that they have a Junk rating from S&P (btw, they pushed for this and it ended up biting them in the ass) they can’t get investors to buy convertible debt unless they offer huge interest payments that would kill their cash flow annually (which is already in the gutter)
Also, by retiring the debt it will POSSIBLY elevate their S&P stock rating (although, this will never happen until they change their accounting of crypto assets)
Strategy claimed a “Stable” rating from S&P. Yea, JUNK stable. Which means likely to remain junk status for the forceable future.
The junk rating from S&P is actually terrible. Now, there is an official rating of the stock as junk. This will be a death blow for them trying to acquire investors with fiduciary responsibility to put any meaningful amount of capital into the company. Imagine having to explain how you lost a pension millions when you knew it was rated as Junk by S&P. That’s a class action nightmare.
They spent almost no time communicating about MSTR common stock and its recent collapse, the one thing Saylor did say was, “Don’t buy MSTR unless [you have a 10 year hold mentality]”. The company won’t be around in 10 years if the market has a liquidity crisis/ sustained bear market in the next two years (which it almost certainly will)
Strategy tried to present the 4 preferred stocks they are selling in the U.S. markets as amazing tax deferred products… in short, they are having to pay almost twice the dividend premiums of other Junk rated companies to get investors to consider them… they already have over $600 million in annual cash flow obligations due to interest and dividends, if they sell a fraction of the preferred stock they are planning on offering it will rise above $1 billion in cash flow obligations a year in a very short timeframe. This will crush them!
(Post continues in comments to this post)
